Trump's 15% Universal Tariff: Winners and Losers on the ASX

The trade rules just changed again. On Friday, the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in a landmark 6-3 vote, ruling he had overstepped his authority. By Saturday, Trump had already hit back with a new 15% universal tariff on nearly all US imports, this time under a different law (Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974).

The ASX 200 dropped 0.6% on Monday, but the headline number only tells part of the story. Buried in the fine print are exemptions that could shield much of Australia's export base while leaving other sectors wide open. For investors, the split between winners and losers on the ASX just got a lot sharper.

How This Tariff Is Different

The old tariff regime hit different countries at different rates, some as high as 49%. The new setup is simpler: a flat 15% on most goods entering the US, no matter where they come from.

But there are two things investors need to know. First, this tariff has a time limit. It only lasts 150 days unless Congress steps in to extend it (White House Fact Sheet, Feb 20, 2026). That makes this a temporary measure, not a permanent shift.

Second, and more importantly for Australia, the White House has carved out exemptions for critical minerals, energy products, gold bullion, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. Given that minerals and energy make up the bulk of what Australia sells to the world, those exemptions offer real protection for our biggest export industries.

On the currency front, the Australian dollar is holding near US$0.708, while the US dollar weakened slightly as uncertainty around trade policy continues to weigh on confidence.

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Where the Risk Sits on the ASX

The companies most exposed are those earning a big chunk of their revenue from the US in product categories that don't fall under the exemptions.

Think manufacturing, tech hardware, and consumer goods aimed at American buyers. If you are a small-cap shipping processed goods into the US on thin margins, a 15% tariff can eat into your profits fast. The same goes for companies whose supply chains run through countries like China or Southeast Asia, where costs are now higher on both ends.

The practical step here is simple: look at where a company earns its money. If a large share of revenue comes from US sales of non-exempt products, that is a red flag in this environment.

Who Benefits: Gold and Domestic Plays

Gold stands out as the clear winner. Gold futures rose on Monday, with the metal trading above US$5,130 per ounce, or roughly A$7,250 (Perth Mint, Feb 23 2026). Silver jumped even harder, gaining 4% in a single session.

What makes this especially relevant for ASX gold miners is that bullion is exempt from the new tariffs. So Australian producers face no extra cost barrier to exports. Add in record gold prices, strong demand from central banks (China has been buying gold for 15 straight months), and a favourable A$/US$ exchange rate, and the setup for local gold miners looks compelling.

Domestic-focused businesses are also well insulated. Companies earning most of their revenue inside Australia, across sectors like healthcare, utilities and retail, have very little direct exposure to what happens at the US border.

Investor Takeaway

This situation is still moving. The 150-day clock is ticking, and the Trump administration has flagged more trade investigations that could change the picture again.

Here is what matters most right now:

• Australia's key exports are protected. Critical minerals, energy, and gold all sit outside the 15% tariff.
• Gold miners have the wind behind them. Record prices, tariff exemptions, and central bank buying make a strong combination.
• Check US revenue exposure carefully. Small caps with heavy, non-exempt US earnings are the most vulnerable.

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For investors watching how tariff-sensitive sectors are shifting, ASR's HALO platform tracks real-time momentum and sector rotation across ASX industries, helping you stay ahead of fast-moving trade developments.

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