Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) is back in focus after filings revealed French investor Olivier Goudet has built a 5.05% stake worth around A$244 million. With the share price down about 55% in 2025, investors now face a clear question: is this smart-money positioning for a turnaround, or a risky bet in a market still under pressure in the US and China?
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Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) shares surged 7.5% last week after filings revealed French billionaire Olivier Goudet has accumulated a 5.05% stake in the struggling wine giant. The move marked the biggest single-day gain for TWE since September 2024, lifting shares from A$5.01 to A$5.39.
The timing is striking. Before the rally, TWE had plunged roughly 55% in 2025, hitting decade lows amid weakness in its key US and China markets. Now, a veteran investor with a track record of building global consumer brands has emerged as a substantial shareholder, having spent approximately A$244 million accumulating 41 million shares since early October.
The question investors are asking: Does Goudet know something the market doesn't?
The premiumisation trend remains intact. Despite overall wine consumption declining, consumers are increasingly "drinking better, not more." According to Bain & Company, the global fine wine market reached €30 billion in 2024, with projections for 4-6% annual growth through 2030.
However, short-term challenges are significant. The US wine market, the world's largest, is experiencing a prolonged correction. Silicon Valley Bank's 2025 State of the US Wine Industry report notes that oversupply and excess distributor inventory have pressured the sector, with premium wines hit particularly hard in 2024.
China's recovery has disappointed. While Australian wine tariffs were removed in March 2024 after a three-year trade dispute, the expected rebound has been slower than anticipated. Reduced banqueting activity and cautious consumer spending have dampened demand, even for prestige brands like Penfolds.
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Olivier Goudet is no ordinary investor. As former CEO of JAB Holding Company, he helped grow the Reimann family's investment vehicle from US$9 billion to over US$50 billion over 12 years. His track record includes building coffee empires through Keurig and Peet's Coffee, plus luxury brands like Jimmy Choo and Krispy Kreme.
His investment approach is telling. Goudet began accumulating TWE shares from 7 October through his Luxembourg-based vehicle Platin SARL, just days before TWE's October earnings downgrade sent shares tumbling.
Rather than retreat, Goudet accelerated. His largest single-day purchase came on 13 October, the same day TWE withdrew guidance, when Platin spent A$16.1 million acquiring 2.6 million shares.
The move has renewed takeover speculation. Market observers have linked Goudet's investment to potential longer-term interest from JAB Holdings, given his advisory role with the firm. Premium brand valuations across beverages have softened significantly.
Treasury Wine Estates isn't a passive victim of market conditions. New CEO Sam Fischer, who joined in October, has launched "TWE Ascent", a transformation program targeting A$100 million in annual cost savings over three years.
The Penfolds brand remains a key asset. While China depletions rose 21% in the three months to October, TWE is taking deliberate action to protect brand integrity by reducing distributor inventory by 400,000 cases over two years and restricting parallel import shipments.
America's challenges persist. The US$1 billion DAOU Vineyards acquisition in late 2023 has yet to deliver expected returns. Distributor transitions in California and soft luxury wine demand have weighed on performance.
Key metrics to watch:
Risk factors remain substantial. US tariff exposure, uncertain China recovery, execution risk on the transformation program, and potential dividend reviews all warrant investor caution.
Billionaire accumulation often signals value. Goudet bought steadily through the decline, averaging into weakness rather than trying to time a bottom. Premium brands like Penfolds provide some downside protection through pricing power and brand loyalty.
However, turnarounds take time. US and China headwinds are expected to persist into FY27, and contrarian bets require both patience and risk tolerance. This isn't a "buy now" signal, but TWE warrants close monitoring for value investors willing to take a longer-term view.
Watch for: Further insider buying activity, TWE Ascent transformation milestones, and China demand recovery data in the coming quarters.
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