Evolution Mining Up Over 150%: What Analyst Price Targets Reveal About Gold Mining Shares on the ASX

Gold hit record highs above US$4,500 per ounce in late December. That's up more than 70%, one of the best runs the metal has ever had. ASX gold miners have ridden this wave higher. Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) has climbed more than 150% in 2025, rewarding shareholders handsomely.

But here's the puzzle: analyst price targets haven't kept up. EVN trades around A$13.00 today, yet the average analyst target sits near A$10.50. That's roughly 18% below where shares are now. So what's going on? And what does this gap mean for investors?

Why Gold Keeps Climbing

Gold's 2025 rally isn't just speculation. Real buyers are driving prices higher.

Central banks are stocking up. Countries like China, Poland, and Turkey have been adding gold to their reserves. They want less reliance on US dollars. According to the World Gold Council, central banks bought over 630 tonnes of gold in the first nine months of this year alone.

Investors are piling in too. Gold ETFs have seen strong inflows as people look for safety amid trade tensions and global uncertainty.

The outlook stays positive. JPMorgan expects gold to reach US$5,000 per ounce by late 2026. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have made similar calls. If they're right, there's still room to run.

For Australian gold miners, this backdrop has been a game-changer. Companies that struggled with tight margins a few years ago are now swimming in cash.

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Evolution Mining: Strong Numbers Behind the Stock

Let's look at why EVN has run so hard.

The company's September quarter was exceptional:

• Record cash flow - Net mine cash flow hit A$366 million
• Low costs - All-in sustaining costs around A$1,720 per ounce
• Minimal hedging - Almost no gold is locked in at lower prices

That last point matters most right now. With Australian gold prices around A$6,500 per ounce and EVN's costs below A$1,800, the profit margin is huge. And because the company hasn't hedged much production, nearly all that upside flows straight to the bottom line.

Analysts currently show mixed views: a handful of Buys, several Holds, and some Sells. The average 12-month target sits around A$10.50, well below today's price.

The next big test comes on 21 January 2026, when EVN releases its December quarter results. Strong numbers could push targets higher. Any disappointment could see shares give back ground quickly.

The Risks to Keep in Mind

The gap between share prices and analyst targets does flag genuine risks.

Gold could pull back. After a 70% run, corrections happen. No rally lasts forever.

Costs can rise. Mining inflation remains a real issue across the sector.

Unhedged cuts both ways. Minimal hedging means full exposure to any gold price drop.

These aren't reasons to panic, but they're worth weighing before jumping in.

Here's the bottom line:

• The target gap reflects cautious models, not necessarily a sell signal
• Gold's key drivers remain intact- central bank buying, investor demand, and global uncertainty
• 21 January is the next major catalyst for EVN shareholders

 

For those looking to identify which ASX gold stocks are best positioned right now, download ASR's free Top-3 Stocks & Market Outlook Report for practical, research-backed insights.

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