Good morning team, Chris Conway your Chief Market and Trading Strategist here with your First Look.
SPI futures are pointing to a 10-point fall on the open, after US markets slipped lower overnight.
Today, RBA policy makers gather for rate call. The Australian dollar is 0.3% lower, paring earlier losses that took the currency below US76¢.
Shares moved lower across Europe and in the US as the June quarter got underway. (With the weekend time change, Wall Street now closes at 6am Sydney time.) Weaker than expected March auto sales paced losses in New York. Losses were pared in the final hour of trade on Wall Street.
What’s on today:
Local data: RBA rate decision, RBA’s Lowe speaks at dinner in Melbourne, February trade balance; NZ dairy auction
Capital Economics on the pending RBA decision and trade data: “Although the Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent at Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting, interest rate cuts may well come back on the agenda soon. We are forecasting that the RBA will reduce rates from 1.5 per cent to 1.0 per cent by the second half of the year, as more evidence emerges that underlying inflation is not rising as the RBA expects, and new regulations cool the housing market.
Meanwhile, we estimate that Australia’s trade surplus rebounded to $US3.6 billion in February. The sharp fall in the previous month was largely due to difficulties in adjusting for the Chinese New Year.”
Overseas data: UK Markit CIPS construction PMI March; Euro zone retail sales February; ECB boss Draghi speaks in Frankfurt; US trade balance February, US factory orders February, US durable goods orders February
SPI futures down 10 points or 0.2% to 5849
AUD -0.3% to 76.04 US cents (Overnight range: 75.91 – 76.46)
On Wall St, Dow -0.1%, S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.3%
In New York, BHP +0.1%, Rio -0.6%
In Europe, Stoxx 50 -0.8%, FTSE -0.6%, CAC -0.7%, DAX -0.5%
Spot gold +0.2% to $US1252.18 an ounce
Brent crude -0.7% to $US53.14 a barrel
Iron ore (Metal Bulletin) -1.3% to $US79.36 a tonne
Dalian iron ore -2.8% to 552 yuan
LME aluminium -0.5% to $US1952 a tonne
LME copper -1.4% to $US5753 a tonne
10-year bond yield: US 2.33%, Germany 0.27%, Australia 2.67%
What happened overnight: