Weekly Share Tip: Buy on KAR

Karoon Gas Australia (KAR) is focused on identifying, exploring and developing acreage that is highly prospective for oil and gas.

The company currently has three focus areas – the Browse Basin (Western Australia), Tumbes Basin (Peru) and the Santos Basin (Brazil).

Santos Basin

KAR has a 100% equity interest in five oil blocks in the Santos Basin, offshore Santa Catarina in Brazil.

The Basin has a history of oil discoveries, and importantly, KAR anticipates that new fields within its acreage can quickly be brought to production due to relatively shallow water depths and their proximity to existing infrastructure.

A three-well drilling campaign will begin later this year, and KAR is currently in the process of farming out some of its equity interest. KAR expects to complete the farm-outs in the coming quarter.

A farm-out will not only help fund KAR’s drilling campaign, but the strong interest it is receiving from prospective farm-in partners appears to validate the significant production potential of the block.

Browse Basin

KAR’s Browse Basin drilling campaign holds long-term promise for the group, this despite a year of contending with regulatory and operational delays.

KAR’s joint venture partner is ConocoPhillips, which holds a 60% stake in the project and is its operator.

The drilling campaign, likely to start this month, will see five to eight wells drilled initially.

The campaign will attempt to define the size of the resource, but pre-drill estimates of proven reserves (P-90) are 3 trillion cubic feet of gas.

Although funding risk is always a concern with gas explorers, KAR had $266.6 million at the end of the December quarter.

When factoring in the proceeds from likely farm-outs of its various projects, KAR expects to have sufficient capital to complete all drilling activities.

This implies a very low likelihood of KAR having to sell down more equity in the Browse Basin Project and/or announce a capital raising.

Outlook

KAR has emerged as an exciting oil and gas explorer, with several promising drilling campaigns about to get underway.

The group is sufficiently funded to complete its Browse Basin drilling campaign, and there is hope the drilling will lead to a sizable defined resource in the near future.

Regarding its South American operations, KAR anticipates reaching a farm-out agreement in the coming quarter.

This will not only improve its cash position but pave the way for the commencement of its Santos Basin drilling campaign.

We expect KAR to be a stock to watch in 2012, and see further upside for its share price.

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Weekly Share Tips: Sell on Suncorp

Suncorp Group (SUN) is one of the largest general insurance groups in Australia, and one of the biggest regional banks in Queensland.

The group’s services span banking, insurance, investment and superannuation whilst its focus is primarily on retail customers and small to medium businesses.

The insurance industry has had to contend with a number of natural disasters since 2010, the latest of which was the recent flooding in VIC and NSW.

SUN’s exposure to the flooding has yet to be fully determined, creating uncertainty that may pressure its share price in the near-term.

Flood claims

This week SUN admitted it had received hundreds of claims related to the flooding in VIC and NSW.

SUN declined to give an estimate of the final number of claims it will eventually receive, as well the potential cost to the company.

Not helping matters today was the Insurance Council, which said that although less than 4000 claims had been received so far, the number was expected to rise in coming days.

Considering SUN derives a significant bulk of its insurance business from VIC and NSW, the odds are its profitability will be hit by the increased number of claims.

Funding squeeze

SUN’s 2012 term funding requirements of approximately $2 billion were expected to be sourced via covered bonds, senior unsecured debt or the Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS) markets.

The European debt crisis has driven up the cost of wholesale funding for the bigger banks. However higher wholesale costs also have ramifications for SUN’s preferred funding sources.

Faced with higher wholesale funding expenses, financial institutions are likely to compete more aggressively for funds in the RMBS and covered bond markets.

This means for companies like SUN, they will be forced to pay even more for funding, thus heaping further pressure on their margins.

Positive longer term

In late February, SUN reported a 74% year-on-year surge in 1H12 net profit to $389 million. An interim dividend of 20 cents was declared.

The profit was built primarily on the Suncorp Life business, which more than doubled its net profit and recorded an 8% lift in revenue.

There was top line growth across all business lines, whilst the company’s $1.2 billion in surplus capital not only provides it with a buffer against economic uncertainty but also gives it flexibility to bump up dividends and/or announce a share buyback.

Outlook

Although SUN still has appeal as a longer-term investment, short-term storm clouds may be gathering on the horizon.

Insurers appear to be getting hit constantly by natural disasters, and the latest flooding in VIC/NSW raises concerns over the impact to insurance profitability.

SUN has already faced a spike in the number of flood-related claims, and there is still no word on the impact to its own profitability.

Moreover, the European debt crisis has driven up funding costs for many financial institutions, threatening to squeeze SUN’s margins.

So whilst the longer-term story for SUN remains sound, we at Australian Stock Report feel recent headwinds will continue to dog its share price in the near-term.

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Shares To Buy: The Reject Shop (TRS)

The Reject Shop (TRS) is a discount variety retail company, targeting Australian consumers through low price points, bargain-purchasing and convenient shopping locations.

TRS offers a wide variety of general consumer merchandise, with a focus on everyday needs, such as toiletries, cosmetics, homewares, personal care products, hardware, basic furniture, household cleaning products, kitchenware, confectionery and snack food.

The company has two key advantages that many of its mid-to-upper market rivals don’t – a strong Australian Dollar benefits earnings due to lower import costs, whilst the substitute nature of its products can appeal to cost-conscious consumers.

After a disappointing finish to FY11, TRS got itself back on track in 1H12, with net profit and sales rising on the back of a resumption in operations at its Ipswich Distribution Centre.

1H12 results

TRS grew its 1H12 net profit 4% on-year to $16.6 million.

New store openings helped sales climb 6.1% to $292.8 million, but this could have been higher had TRS not face capacity constraints in the early part of the half.

These capacity constraints were due to the early-2011 Queensland floods, which impacted operations at the Ipswich Distribution Centre.

TRS was able to generate sales momentum in the second quarter, helped by improved seasonable trade and the reinstatement of the Ipswich Distribution Centre.

A strong AUD combined with a reduction in shipping costs saw the company’s underlying gross margin rise from 44% in 1H11, to 45.4% in 1H12.

This was particularly impressive considering TRS faced price deflation over the period. It also illustrates how for TRS a high AUD can provide a hedge against price deflation, unlike many other retailers.

Outlook

With the Ipswich Distribution Centre now fully functional, TRS can focus on continuing the sales momentum generated in the second quarter.

Furthermore, with inventory management back to normal, we expect TRS to further improve margins (via less stock markdowns) and build on 1H12’s strong operating cash flow performance (via better working capital management).

Although it expects a tough trading environment to persist into 2012, TRS said second half comparable sales to date were positive. We expect TRS’ new store rollout to continue to underpin sales growth into this year.

The group forecast FY12 net profit to be between 27% and 36% higher than FY11. Even taking this strong growth into account, TRS is trading on reasonable multiples and we expect this to translate into further gains in its share price.

Seven Group Holdings (SVW) 1H FY12 profit of $52.1 million

Seven Group Holdings (SVW) is a diversified operating and investment group listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. The operating business encompasses WesTrac, a global top five Caterpillar dealership. It also is a minority holder in Seven West media and major shareholder National Hire.

Seven Group Holdings announced a 1H FY12 profit of $52.1 million, a 57.8% fall on the previous corresponding period.  The result was better than the market expected.

Despite the fall in profit, revenue grew 29.3% to $2 billion over the same period.

The result was spoiled by $165.2 million impairment charge on the carrying value of its investment in Seven West Media.

The company will pay an interim dividend of 18 cents a share, fully franked.

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At the start of a new year traders and investors alike invariably look to the potential that the new horizon brings.

After a tumultuous 2011, this year that sentiment is even more pronounced as market participants put the last 12-months in their rear-view and look to better times ahead.

At Australian Stock Report we don’t particularly care for long dated predictions about the market as a whole – too much can change too quickly.

We are prepared however, to outline a few stocks that will make for interesting reading in 2012.

Below is a list of stocks to watch in 2012 and a brief outline as to why we think so.

QR National (ASX:QRN) / Asciano (ASX:AIO) – Both companies operate in the transportation industry and are highly leveraged to the mining sector. While they are in competition with each other, both can prosper with the mining boom likely to drive industry revenue. QRN and AIO are likely to experience strong growth from the Queensland area as the state’s coal output moves back into full swing after last year’s floods caused havoc with production.

ANZ (ASX:ANZ) – Our bank of choice is ANZ. While we can’t see an extreme decoupling in price between the big four over the next year, ANZ is our preferred exposure to this sector. ANZ has the second lowest P/E based on current earnings and has a dividend yield approaching 7%, which should provide some support for the stock at this level. The company also has the most exposure to the growing Asian region and one of the lowest exposures to the slowing domestic residential market.

BHP Billiton (ASX:BHP) / Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) – These mining giants are poised for growth in 2012. Both companies were weighed down last year as the market factored in the effects of a possible hard landing in China. It is becoming more evident however, that any slowdown in the Chinese economy will be akin to a soft landing instead. The other factor that could buoy the mining giants is increased commodity prices due to the likely introduction of further monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve.

WorleyParsons (ASX:WOR) – Worley’s provides professional engineering and management services to the energy, resources and complex process industries. The company has significant leverage to the energy sector, specifically through its hydrocarbons (compounds founds in crude oil) division. The company will benefit from any oil supply/demand imbalance that drives up prices. Indeed, some analysts are predicting the price of oil will increase dramatically due to the political unrest in the Middle East. Higher oil prices will encourage the big oil companies to ramp up capital expenditure to the benefit of WOR. The company also has demonstrated an ability to land contracts with the major oil players, evidenced by its recent contract win for the Chevron project in Indonesia.

Saracen Mineral Holdings (ASX:SAR) – On the smaller side of the market, Saracen is a mid-tier WA gold producer that was added to the S&P/ASX 200 on the 28^th of December, 2011. This company has forecast gold production of between 120,000 -130,000 ounces of gold a year, which was reaffirmed in a recent update. Saracen is also trying to expand its business with $35 million of capital expenditure planned for the current financial year. The capital expenditure is substantial for a company of SAR’s size, but a strong net cash position of $58 million significantly reduces the funding risk.

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Westfield Group (ASX:WDC)  is the largest retail property group in the world by equity market capitalisation. It has investment interests in 126 shopping centres in Australia, New Zealand and the United States

Westfield, which is among the blue chip stocks, revealed a full year 2011 profit of $1.53 billion, a 37.5% rise on the previous corresponding period, slightly ahead of analyst expectations.

Full year revenue climbed 10.5% to $1.46 billion, year on year.

WDC declared a final distribution of 24.2 cents, in line with expectations.

The group also announced it would start an on-market buyback of securities for up to 10% of its issued capital.

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Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) is an exploration company that is involved in the development of the Fox Nickel mine and the exploration of nickel sulfides, platinum group metals and gold.

Material stock Western Area reported a 1H FY12 net profit of $24.1 million, reflecting a 64% drop compared to same period a year earlier.

The company said the price of nickel averaged US$8.51/lb in the first half of its financial year compared to an average of US$ 11.61/lb a year earlier.

WSA slashed its interim dividend in half, declaring $0.05 dividend, unfranked.

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Leighton Holdings Ltd (ASX:LEI) offers a variety of project development and contracting services to public and private sector clients in the Asia-Pacific region. Leighton provides design management, civil engineering construction, building, mining, process engineering, telecommunications, waste management and infrastructure operation and maintenance and property development and management. Leighton is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and is a member of the S&P/ASX 200.

Leighton announced a 1H FY12 NPAT of $340 million, a 57% jump on $216.7 million a year earlier.

Revenue jumped 25% to $12.2 billion compared to the same corresponding period in FY11.

LEI said in statement that the group is confident it is positioned in the best possible markets in the world for at lead the foreseeable future.

The company also said it will pay an interim dividend of 60 cents per share.

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WorleyParsons (ASX:WOR) provides professional engineering and management services to the energy, resource and complex process industries.

It offers a broad range of services, from feasibility studies to design and project services, and is exposed to a number of sectors.

The group is a leader in its industry and has established long-term relationships with a number of blue-chip companies.

Despite facing obstacles in FY11, WOR was able to grow its profit and revenue, with the Hydrocarbons business driving the result.

Moreover, WorleyParsons is ideally placed for the future, as the lure of high energy prices is likely to drive demand for its services from the bigger oil companies.

Hyper about Hydrocarbons

The majority of WOR’s earnings are in the Hydrocarbons (oil and gas) division.  WOR’s leverage to the energy market is a key attraction, particularly as demand for oil and gas is expected to strengthen due to emerging market growth.

The oil supply/demand imbalance (dwindling oil supplies vs. growing energy demand) is only expected to worsen due to this growth.

The lure of energy price appreciation is likely to encourage oil companies to ramp up capex spending, which puts WorleyParsons in an ideal position to accelerate its contract win rate.

WOR has had a positive start to 2012, winning two major contracts in January.  The first was a US$115 million contract with ExxonMobil, and the second was a US$180 million contract with Chevron (split with a 50/50 JV partner).

LNG is the future

The big oil companies have recognised that the world is moving towards more unconventional sources of energy such as LNG.

There are a number of massive projects being undertaken throughout Australia, and WOR has had a hand in some of the key ones such as Pluto and Wheatstone.

WOR’s experience in developing LNG projects, coupled with the established relationships it has with its blue-chip clients, makes it ideally placed to benefit from this increased focus on alternative energy.

Outlook

As the global growth engine continues to shift from developed economies to the developing regions, there will be increased demand for commodities.

As mining companies look to meet this demand, there is going to be a significant increase in capex activities over the coming years.

This will strengthen the market for WOR’s services, providing it with plenty of growth opportunities, especially in the hydrocarbons space.

WOR is in a sound financial position and is expected to continue the positive earnings momentum into FY12.

Based on one year forward earnings, WOR is trading at a more than 50% premium to the industry average.

Whilst this may appear to suggest the company is overvalued, we feel the premium is justified when considering WOR’s relatively stronger growth prospects, cash flow generation and a five-year average return on equity of over 20%.

The long-term relationships WorleyParsons has fostered with its blue-chip clients is likely to yield considerable benefits for the company, particularly as miners look to capitalise on rising commodity prices as well as the world’s shift to alternative energy sources.

We believe that WOR is poised for growth, and is defiantly a stock to watch for 2012.

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News Corporation (ASX:NWS) is a diversified media conglomerate with interests in all geographic locations around the world, and in all facets of the media. The principle activities of the company include printing and publishing, books and magazines, television broadcasting and production including both free to air and pay television, and film production and distributions.

Today, ASX 200 listed News Corporation announced its December quarter earnings, showing a net profit of $984.49 million up 65% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

The earnings rise came despite a $33.44 million cost for restructuring the group’s British and Australian newspaper divisions.

NWS reaffirmed its outlook for 2012, saying it still expects the company’s overall operating income to rise in then low-mid double-digit range for the year.

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