Mirabela Nickel (ASX:MBN) is a mining company focused on the production and sale of nickel concentrate.

The miner’s key asset is the Santa Rita nickel operation in Bahia, Brazil.

MBN achieved its production ramp up goals in 2011, successfully upgrading the Santa Rita’s plant capacity to 7.2Mtpa of ore milled, from 4.6Mtpa in 2010.

However the ramp up was also accompanied by rising cash costs, which detracted significantly from an otherwise solid set of December 2011 quarter production numbers.

Costly cash

Mirabela Nickel announced its December quarter production report today.

Nickel output climbed 9% from the previous quarter, helping MBN to meet its 2011 production target of 15,854 tonnes.

However the production numbers were overshadowed by a disappointing rise in cash costs.

Cash costs jumped 11% on the quarter to US$7.42, as the higher output was accompanied by higher plant costs and lower productivity.

Additionally, mining costs rose amid increased expenses relating to drilling activity.

The ramp up in quarterly production was thus poorly executed due to the company’s own efficiencies as well as industry cost pressures.

Risk on

Another concerning aspect of the production release was the almost 50% fall in MBN’s cash holdings from the prior quarter.

A significant part of that outflow was due to the closing out of the company’s nickel and copper hedges.

The lower cash balance in addition to a new US$50 million debt facility entered into by a Brazilian subsidiary, raises MBN’s risk profile in a period of economic uncertainty.

Outlook

MBN has raised its 2012 production guidance, targeting 20,000 – 22,000 tonnes of nickel output.

As mentioned, however, greater output is not necessarily a good thing when it is accompanied by higher cash costs.

Mirabela Nickel has commenced a cost reduction program, which aims to lower cash costs towards US$6/lb by the end of the year. However that is largely dependent on the proper implementation of the program.

Although a return to steady state production may help, cost reductions will also be linked to the favourable renegotiation of MBN’s major contracts.

Having recently closed out of its nickel hedges, MBN is now fully exposed to the movement in commodity prices.

Unfortunately, there is also considerable uncertainty surrounding nickel prices, with brokers Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs recently downgrading their forecasts amid concerns about oversupply.

We at Australian Stock Report believe these headwinds are likely to weigh on MBN’s share price for a while yet.

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Kagara (ASX:KZL) is a copper, zinc-lead and nickel miner, with operations in North Queensland and WA. It has four operational hubs in North Queensland – Mungana, Mt. Garnet, Balcooma and Thalanga.

KZL’s North Queensland mines supply ore to three treatment facilities in Mt. Garnet (copper and polymetallic) and Thalanga (polymetallic).

A strategic review determined KZL’s nickel operations at Lounge Lizard, WA to be non-core, and so the group has put the assets up for sale.

The company faced major operational issues in FY11, which culminated in a $32.2 million loss.

An uncertain outlook for commodities has come at a poor time for Kagara, with its recently announced capital raising highlighting potential cash problems at the company.

Although KZL recently unveiled a five year turnaround strategy, we feel there are significant near-term headwinds that are likely to keep its share price under pressure.

Operational issues

KZL’s September quarter activities report revealed a 3% fall in copper output from the June quarter. However that was balanced by a 13% rise in zinc output.

Cash costs for both commodities fell on the quarter, reflecting the company’s focus on protecting its margins in the face of declining prices.

The quarterly output result followed a hugely disappointing FY11, which was characterised by a $32.2 million loss (compared to a $3.2 million profit in FY10).

The loss came on the back of a $48.5 million write-down of KZL’s Mt. Garnet and Mungana mines (Mungana Mines: MUX is 61.9% owned by KZL).

Production over the year was impacted by a prolonged wet season.  This was accompanied by rising cash costs over the year, which came about due to lower zinc output and adverse FX movements.

Uncertain commodities outlook

Europe’s debt crisis coupled with signs of a slowdown in Chinese economic activity has clouded the outlook for KZL’s key commodities – copper and zinc.

Copper has slumped around 17% from the highs it created in July, whilst zinc has suffered similar falls amid persistent concerns about global oversupply.

Copper is usually seen as an economic barometer, and its recent weakness suggests diminishing prospects for global growth.

Although longer-term we expect stronger demand for the red metal, we see more weakness in the near-term as Europe struggles to end its debt crisis.

Cap raising highlights problems

Kagara’s problems ultimately led to a $25 million capital raising (completed today), which it said was to finalise the acquisition of the Einasleigh Copper Deposit at Mt. Garnet.

Einasleigh was bought from Copper Strike (CSE) for $16 million, as part of KZL’s push to ramp up production in the next five years.

The announcement of the raising was surprising considering it came less than three months after KZL unveiled its five year turnaround strategy.

The capital raising suggests KZL is facing cash problems, with the group in a precarious position as it looks to significantly increase exploration activities in North Queensland.

Worryingly, this leaves KZL vulnerable to continued declines in copper prices and any unforseen production delays.

Outlook

KZL has been hit hard in recent times due to operational issues at its mines.  A prolonged wet season led to production delays and write-downs at Mt. Garnet and Mungana, which was reflected in a massive loss for FY11.

Although KZL is to embark on a five year turnaround strategy, it has set itself lofty exploration and production goals. The group aims to produce 30,000tpa of copper by FY15 (FY11: 22,530t) and 71,000tpa of zinc by FY14 (FY11: 40,125t).

KZL’s immediate focus, however, is on ensuring it has enough cash to cover near-term development expenses.

The recently completed capital raising is a worrying sign, and suggests KZL has little room for error in a very uncertain global economy.

A worsening of Europe’s debt crisis could see copper prices come under further selling pressure, thus impacting KZL’s margins.

As a result, we feel there is further near-term weakness in store for KZL’s share price.

KZL’s woes have seen it being a major mover on the ASX, it has plummet more than 60% in 2011.

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Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) is a uranium miner, with projects located in Africa and Australia.

PDN’s long-term goal is to establish itself as a uranium producer through identifying, acquiring and evaluating advanced uranium projects.

The group’s current focus is on its African projects: Langer Heinrich (Namibia) and Kayelekera (Malawi).

PDN has been one of the shares to sell this year after facing a number of challenges including a nuclear crisis in Japan.

The future was looking bright for uranium companies like PDN as world energy needs surged on the back of expansion and industrialisation in China and India.

Nuclear energy seemed the next biggest thing until disaster struck this year following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

As Japan’s nuclear crisis deepened, the less attractive uranium looked as an energy source for the future.

Germany’s plans to move away from uranium entirely by 2022 have hurt uranium companies further.

In addition, a looming global economic crisis is threatening to slow energy demand worlwide.

Production lacks energy

PDN had a bad start to the year after downgrading its FY11 uranium production guidance to between 6.0 million – 6.3 million pounds (Mlb), from the previous 7 million pounds.

PDN said that second quarter production rose 7.6%, however full year output was going to be affected by power and maintenance disruptions at its Malawi-based Kayelekera mine.

Paladin Energy shares slid 7.7% following the update. To make matters worse, PDN’s final FY11 production came in at 5.7Mlb, completely missing the mark.

Following Japan’s nuclear crisis, PDN announced that it does not have any commercial relationship with Japanese utilities.

It further said that it had a strong balance sheet and is in a good position to meet global uranium demand given the expected supply disruptions.

FY results

Last month, PDN reported an FY11 net loss of US$82.3 million after costs related to acquisitions and mine expansions more than offset higher revenue from increased production.

This was wider than the US$52.9 million net loss reported in the previous year and was also larger than the average US$44 million net loss analysts had expected.

PDN said its costs rose due in part to lower uranium prices in the wake of Japan’s nuclear crisis.

Looking ahead

PDN and its uranium sector peers have been under pressure after a catastrophic earthquake and a tsunami crippled reactors at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi reactor in Japan.

The event has raised fears regarding uranium as an energy choice. Whilst uranium is one of the greenest forms of energy when contained, disasters such as Chernobyl have led to long-standing controversy regarding nuclear power.

With Germany looking to move away from uranium entirely by 2022, there are wide fears that other developed nations will also reconsider their stance on uranium.

This uncertainty is likely to see uranium miners under pressure in the medium to long term with potentially devastating long term effects.

PDN’s price action has suffered, reflecting the underlying issues the company has been facing.

We feel PDN will continue to struggle on a combination of high debt levels, a tough economic outlook and a weak uranium market.

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