Newcrest Mining (NCM) is Australia’s largest gold producer and one of the world’s top five gold mining companies by production, reserves, and market cap.

NCM’s main operations are in Australia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Fiji and West Africa. The group’s flagship mine is PNG-based, Lihir, with the other offshore operations being Gosowong in Indonesia, Hidden Valley (50%-owned) in PNG and Bonriko in Ivory Coast.

NSW-based Cadia Valley and WA-based Telfer make up the company’s domestic operations.

Gold price plunge

Gold holdings at exchange traded funds (ETFs) have fallen significantly in 2013, with the drop in bullion holdings reflecting a dramatic fall in investment demand.

The plunge in gold prices has encouraged China and India, as well as the US and Perth Mints, to ramp up their physical purchases of bullion. However we believe the surge in ETF-related supply is overwhelming any physical demand for the precious metal.

The spot gold price has plunged 16% in the year to date amid a sharp deterioration in sentiment towards the precious metal. Global inflation remains low whilst the US central bank has flagged an end to its monetary stimulus measures sometime this year in response to a strengthening US economy.

We expect these headwinds to persist for a while yet, resulting in an environment where any short-term gain in gold prices is met by even stronger selling.

Higher cost mines threatened by gold

NCM is one of the higher cost gold producers in Australia. Cash costs were $1086 an ounce (oz) for the March 2013 quarter, with a number of its mines plagued by operational issues.

Telfer, which accounts for a quarter of overall production, had cash costs of $1162 an ounce.

This was 27% higher than the previous quarter due to weaker copper output, planned mill shutdowns and the sourcing of ore from higher cost open pit sources.

The group’s offshore mines, Gosowong, Hidden Valley and Bonriko, contribute around 20% of overall production. Cash costs at these mines were $806/oz, $1790/oz and $930, respectively.

With gold prices currently trading around $1400/oz, Hidden Valley has become uneconomical and Telfer’s cash margins are very tight, magnifying the threat of impairment charges at these mines.

Outlook

A major problem for NCM and other higher cost gold producers is the impact plunging gold prices are having on mine profitability. Mine shutdowns and weaker output contributed to a big rise in quarterly cash costs at Telfer, whilst Hidden Valley has become uneconomical given how much cash costs exceed current gold prices.

We believe there is more weakness in store for gold prices, raising the threat of write-downs at NCM’s high-cost mines.

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Perseus Mining (PRU) is a gold explorer and producer, focused on under-explored gold belts in West Africa.

The group’s main assets are located in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, consisting of the Edikan Gold Mine (EGM), the Tengrela Gold project (TGP) and the Grumesa Gold Project (GGP).

The Edikan Gold Mine in Ghana has 5.6Moz of Measured and Indicated gold resources, including reserves of 3.4 million ounces of gold, and 1.7Moz Inferred gold resources. Production began at the mine in the 3rd Quarter of 2011.

The Sissingue Gold Project which is part of the Tengrela Gold Project. It is the group’s most advanced non-producing project.

Bearish outlook for gold

Gold holdings at exchange traded funds (ETFs) have fallen significantly in 2013. The drop in ETF holdings highlights the extent to which investment demand is weakening.

Inflation expectations have eased considerably in recent months as the world economy fails to gain traction despite coordinated central bank quantitative easing programs.

Below we graph the trend in ETF bullion holdings since the beginning of the year:

As we can see there have been major outflows in recent months, with the surge in supply overwhelming what demand remains for the precious metal.

Whilst physical demand from China and India is expected to continue and may even strengthen to take advantage of collapsing prices, we fear it won’t be enough to ignite a meaningful rally in gold prices.

Weak March quarter

PRU revealed a 12% increase in 3Q13 gold output (from 2Q13) to 57,169 ounces. This helped drive a 7% lift in revenue from the previous quarter to $77.2 million

Worryingly, quarterly cash costs were US$1132 an ounce (oz), up 7% from the previous quarter. PRU guided for cash costs of US$1,100/oz for the six months ending June 30, 2013.

At a time of falling gold prices, PRU’s elevated cash costs are translating into smaller cash margins, negatively impacting overall profitability.

This was evident in the March quarter, where PRU reported a net loss of $892,000. This was in stark contrast to the $15.1 million profit recorded for the December 2012 quarter.

PRU cannot afford more quarters like the previous one, but given how sharply gold prices have fallen since then we expect to see another weak result for the current quarter.

Outlook

Gold prices have suffered a dramatic decline of almost 18% since the beginning of the year. Higher cost producers are expected to be hit hard by the slump in prices.

PRU swung to a net loss in the March quarter amid a spike in operating costs. With cash costs to remain elevated through to the end of FY13, we fear the company is tracking for an even bigger loss in the current quarter.

This is likely to translate into continued share price weakness for the group.

Perseus Mining was listed in the traders report as a sell share for our members on May 22nd. For all of our latest share tips and trading ideas sign up for FREE 7 Day Trial and gain full access our research files.

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Newcrest Mining (NCM) is Australia’s largest gold producer and one of the world’s top five gold mining companies by production, reserves, and market cap. NCM’s main operations are in Australia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Fiji and West Africa, and has a global workforce exceeding 19,000.

The company has a portfolio of predominantly low-cost, long-life operating mines, although it also has a history of operations troubles at its key projects (both operational and developmental).

1H13 Results

NCM’s 1H13 results were disappointing on several fronts. Gold production for the half was 953,000 ounces, down 18% on prior corresponding half.

Cash costs increased 8% on same period in FY12. The poor production results led to revenue falling 28% and underlying profit plummeted 48%.

Guidance downgrade

Late last month, the group downgraded its full year production – its fifth downgrade in the last two years. Gold production was lowered from 2.3 to 2.5 million ounces of gold to 2.0 to 2.15 million ounces.

The company cited operational issues at Lihir and Gosowong as the reason for the downgrade. While the downgrade was not a massive shock given the poor 1H results, it is yet more evidence of management inability to forecasts its own production.

Gold Prices

While the groups poor results have contributed to recent share price weakness, it correlation to the gold price has also contributed.

 

The above shows the gold price (white line) and NCM share price (yellow line) over the last nine month.

As is shown, the fall in the gold price has dragged on NCM’s share price. With fears of monetary easing-induced hyperinflation are abating, other asset classes such as equities are offering relatively stronger returns.

Outlook

NCM’s 1H13 results showed the effects of both poor production and a falling gold price.

Disappointingly, the group last month downgraded its full year guidance. This downgrade was already from what we would consider low-end guidance and while not a complete surprise it does not leave us with much faith its management’s ability to forecast its own production.

With the flight to stronger returning asset classes likely to continue in the near-term, we see continued weakness for the gold price and as a by-product NCM’s share price.

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Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) is a gold miner, operating in South East Asia, South America and Australia. The company’s major operation is the Chatree Mine in Thailand, and it also has the smaller Challenger Mine in South Australia.

Rising cash costs squeezing margins

In late January, KCN revealed a 13.4% slide in 2Q13 gold output relative to the same period a year earlier. Compared to 1Q13, gold output rose slightly by 4%.

Production was affected by the temporary closure of the Chatree North Expansion Plant (Plant 2) and interruptions at Challenger following the establishment of two new mining fronts.

The biggest disappointment with the result was another rise in the group’s cash costs. Cash costs rose 37% from 1Q13 to US$975/oz. However, compared to 2Q12 costs surged 60%.

KCN attributed the cost squeeze to lower ore grades at Chatree and ore sourced from an area of Chatree’s Pit A that was known to have lower recoveries.

The poor 2Q13 production result contributed to a 76% slide in 1H13 net profit to $8.1 million. Revenue was up 10% on-year, however the growth was driven primarily from stronger gold sales. Weaker output from Challenger and a lower realised average gold selling price detracted from the growth in revenue.

Gold prices trending down

The price of gold has weakened noticeably in recent months. Spot gold is trading around 7% below KCN’s 1H13 average realised selling price of US$1676.

The outlook for the precious metal has declined amid signs of weakening physical demand and diminished prospects for further monetary easing. In an example of waning demand, the US Mint sold 62,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins last month.

This was much lower than the sale of 80,500 ounces in February and 150,000 ounces in January. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds are also 6.9% weaker in the year-to-date.

Furthermore, with the world economy stabilising, central banks like the US Federal Reserve are less inclined to implement additional monetary easing measures.

In our view these are among the key factors that will handicap gold prices, and by extension, KCN’s revenue growth.

Outlook

KCN stuck to its FY13 gold production guidance of between 200,000 and 220,000 ounces. 1H13 production totalled 90,413 ounces, meaning KCN is relying on stronger 2H13 output numbers in order to meet its guidance. Although Chatree’s Plant 2 is now back online, development at Challenger is expected to continue.

Also, the limited availability of stoping areas at Challenger the company highlighted in its 2Q13 production report indicates difficulties accessing the ore body being mined. Therefore we don’t share KCN’s optimism that full year production guidance will be met.

Moreover, the upward trend in its cash costs is coming at a time when gold prices have been retreating. This is creating pressure on cash margins and will ultimately translate into poor earnings in our view.

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Regis Resources (RRL) is an Australian gold production and exploration company. Its management team has a successful track record of developing mid-sized gold operations within Australia and Africa.

RRL’s flagship asset is the Duketon Gold Project in Kalgoorlie, in WA. The project comprises of 387 leases that cover over 2,030 sqkm of ground. These leases contain three main deposits in Moolart Well, Garden Well and Erliston.

FY12 results

RRL’s only producing mine is the Moolart Well. The group reported June quarterly gold production of 26,228 ounces, at a cash cost of $532 (pre-royalties).

Although cash costs rose slightly from the March quarter’s $519, RRL’s costs were still lower than its major peers due to the higher reserve grade mined and the low-cost nature of its operations.

RRL had guided for FY12 production to be between 95,000 ounces – 105,000 ounces, but beat its own guidance with 105,413 ounces produced. The company reported an FY12 net profit of $74.7 million, which was almost double FY11’s result and came on the back of a 58% jump in gold sales.

Projects with significant potential

The Moolart Well mine is projected to consistently produce around 100,000 ounces of gold a year for at least the next 4 years.

The company began producing from Garden Well earlier this month, and has forecast output from this mine to be between 220,000 240,000 ounces in 2013, at a cash cost of $400 – $450 an ounce.

RRL expects to commence development of the Rosemont Gold Deposit in the coming quarter. Taking into account Garden Well’s output and the development of Rosemont, RRL expects to produce over 400,000 ounces of per annum, significantly higher than FY12’s number.

Outlook

With FY12 now over, FY13 and FY14 earnings expectations will become more prominent in valuation models.

RRL is planning a dramatic increase in production over the coming years, which is likely to translate into a massive increase in earnings and cash flow from FY13.

With Garden Well and Rosemont about to ramp up output, the catalysts are in place for RRL to re-rate to a higher price earnings multiple, which is expected to translate into further share price gains.

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PanAust (PNA) is a mid tier miner that holds mineral assets in Laos and Thailand.

In Laos, PanAust operates the large Phu Kham copper-gold operation, which commenced production of copper-gold concentrate in April 2008. The Ban Houayxai Gold-Silver mine which is also located in Laos commenced commercial production in June 2012.

First half results

PNA reported a first-half net profit of $65.7 million, which was a 5.4% fall on the prior corresponding period. The fall came despite a 1.5% rise in revenue to $306.2 million, with a sharp fall in copper and gold prices to blame for the differential.

On the positive side PNA announced a maiden interim dividend of 3 cents a share, as it wraps up a two-year, US$450 million capital expenditure program.

The company reiterated its full-year production guidance of around 64,000 tons of copper, 135,000 troy ounces of gold and 650,000 ounces of silver.

Growth

As mentioned the group has spent US$450 million on capital expenditure which should hopefully result in further production growth.

PNA recently upgraded certain facilities at its Phu Kham mine and as a result, copper production is expected to rise to between 65,000 tons and 70,000 tons in 2013.

Gold production is also expected to increase by 7,500 ounces. The Ban Houayxai Gold-Silver commenced commercial production in June 2012. The second half is expected to deliver over 65,000oz of gold at a cash cost of approximately US$500/oz after silver credits.

Gold and Copper markets

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The above two charts show the spot price of gold and copper since the start of July.

Both commodities have moved strongly higher, both boosted by the US announcing further quantitative easing.

China manufacturing data continues to be weak. This was today characterised by the reading of the HSBC’s Flash September Purchasing Managers Index, which was 47.8.

A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

As such we believe that these continued weak numbers will force the Chinese government into action and provide further stimulus, which in turn will see commodity prices continue to strengthen.

Outlook

PNA produced solid 1H results despite the fall in profit which was due to falling commodity prices.

The company is moving into an interesting phase with much of the previous year’s capital expenditure beginning to pay dividends in the production sense.

We also think that the positive momentum surrounding gold will continue over the next few months, providing further support for PNA shares.

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Resolute Mining Limited explores for, produces and develops gold in Ghana, Mali Queensland and Tanzania.  The Company’s gold exploration projects include Obotan, Syama, Ravenswood and Golden Pride.

Small cap Resolute Mining today announced that intends to increase production in FY13 by 14% to 415,000 ounces of gold.

The group also forecasted a rise in cash to $830 per ounce over the same period.

Its unaudited FY12 results revealed production of 398,452 ounces at a cash cost of approximately $750 per ounce.

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PanAust Limited explores for gold and copper through its exploration projects in Laos and Thailand. The company is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and is a member of the SP/ASX200.

PanAust announced that it has commenced ore processing at the Ban Houayxai operation in Laos.

PanAust is targeting annual gold production of approximately 100,000 ounces and 700,000 ounces of silver.

Ramp up of production is expected to be rapid and the current estimate for 2012 production is approximately 85,000 ounces at a cash cost of between US$550 and US$600 per ounce after credits for about 200,000 ounces of silver.

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St. Barbara Ltd (ASX:SBM) is a gold exploration and production company.  The Company’s exploration projects include its Southern Cross and Leonora Operations which are located in Western Australia.

ASX Small Cap stock, St Barbara today released production figures for the fourth quarter revealing a production increase of 18% compared to the previous quarter.

The company said in a statement that the increase was due primarily to stronger milled volumes and the higher grade of ore mined.

SBM said exploration drilling will increase in the second half with the exploration budget set to increase by $6 million for the year to $22 million.

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St Barbara (ASX:SBM) is an Australian Small Cap gold producer and explorer.

SBM’s primary assets are its Southern Cross and Leonora operations, both of which are located in Western Australia. The company purchased the Gwalia (WA) mine in 2005, which has now become its main focus.

St Barbara today announced it has established an on-market share buy-back facility to repurchase up to a maximum of 15 million of its ordinary shares.

The buy-back will be conducted over a six month period.

The company stated the buy-back facility will enable it to apply its strong balance sheet and cash position to consolidate the company’s capital base for the benefit of shareholders.

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