Atlas Iron (ASX:AGO) is an emerging iron ore producer and explorer.

With a growing number of high quality iron ore projects and one of the largest landholdings in the lucrative Pilbara region, AGO is now one of the area’s largest iron ore producers.

The company has a significant number of direct shipping ore (DSO) projects in WA. DSO projects are those that are in close proximity to ports, which helps to significantly lower capital costs.

One of the more recent ones, the Mount Dove DSO Project, is expected to contribute to AGO’s shipping tonnes later this calendar year.

Iron ore in spotlight

Iron ore miners have been in focus over the past few weeks due to a combination of factors. Among these is the improving prospect for iron ore.

We don’t believe the current spot price around $142 a tonne reflects what is still a favourable supply/demand dynamic for Aussie miners.

The European debt crisis forced some of the higher cost iron ore miners to cut back production last year.

This is likely to ensure the iron market remains in a supply deficit for a few more years yet, which not only supports prices but provides an opportunity for low-cost producers like AGO to fill the breach.

Also, the Glencore/Xstrata merger proposal has thrown the spotlight on pure play iron ore miners. Given the commodities giants’ lack of iron ore assets, the merger may encourage existing iron ore companies to either consolidate or potentially be the subject to an offer.

Output hit by cyclone

For the December quarter, Atlas Iron reported an 11% quarter-on-quarter fall in iron ore mined.  This was due to Tropical Cyclone Heidi, which impacted mining operations and damaged the Utah Point ship loading facility at Port Hedland.

As a result, AGO downgraded its FY12 production target to 5.5 – 5.7 million tonnes, from the previous 6 million tonnes.  However cash costs were within AGO’s targeted $42/ton-$45/ton range for FY12.

AGO, like other iron ore miners, suffered from a fall in iron ore prices during the quarter. However it also positioned itself to take advantage of a recovery in prices.

The company moved from quarterly pricing of its contracts towards shorter term reference points. This means it is more directly exposed to spot prices, which have trended higher in recent months.

Outlook

Despite last quarter’s operational issues, AGO managed to grow its cash pile from $373 million to $380 million.

With strong operating cash flows and competitive cost of production, AGO has significant capacity to fund development projects such as the Mt. Dove mine.

Although AGO faced a number of headwinds in the December quarter, we think it is well placed to take advantage of a recovery in iron ore prices. Atlas Iron (AGO) is an emerging iron ore producer and explorer.

With a growing number of high quality iron ore projects and one of the largest landholdings in the lucrative Pilbara region, AGO is now one of the area’s largest iron ore producers.

The company has a significant number of direct shipping ore (DSO) projects in WA. DSO projects are those that are in close proximity to ports, which helps to significantly lower capital costs.

One of the more recent ones, the Mount Dove DSO Project, is expected to contribute to AGO’s shipping tonnes later this calendar year.

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WorleyParsons (ASX:WOR) provides professional engineering and management services to the energy, resource and complex process industries.

It offers a broad range of services, from feasibility studies to design and project services, and is exposed to a number of sectors.

The group is a leader in its industry and has established long-term relationships with a number of blue-chip companies.

Despite facing obstacles in FY11, WOR was able to grow its profit and revenue, with the Hydrocarbons business driving the result.

Moreover, WorleyParsons is ideally placed for the future, as the lure of high energy prices is likely to drive demand for its services from the bigger oil companies.

Hyper about Hydrocarbons

The majority of WOR’s earnings are in the Hydrocarbons (oil and gas) division.  WOR’s leverage to the energy market is a key attraction, particularly as demand for oil and gas is expected to strengthen due to emerging market growth.

The oil supply/demand imbalance (dwindling oil supplies vs. growing energy demand) is only expected to worsen due to this growth.

The lure of energy price appreciation is likely to encourage oil companies to ramp up capex spending, which puts WorleyParsons in an ideal position to accelerate its contract win rate.

WOR has had a positive start to 2012, winning two major contracts in January.  The first was a US$115 million contract with ExxonMobil, and the second was a US$180 million contract with Chevron (split with a 50/50 JV partner).

LNG is the future

The big oil companies have recognised that the world is moving towards more unconventional sources of energy such as LNG.

There are a number of massive projects being undertaken throughout Australia, and WOR has had a hand in some of the key ones such as Pluto and Wheatstone.

WOR’s experience in developing LNG projects, coupled with the established relationships it has with its blue-chip clients, makes it ideally placed to benefit from this increased focus on alternative energy.

Outlook

As the global growth engine continues to shift from developed economies to the developing regions, there will be increased demand for commodities.

As mining companies look to meet this demand, there is going to be a significant increase in capex activities over the coming years.

This will strengthen the market for WOR’s services, providing it with plenty of growth opportunities, especially in the hydrocarbons space.

WOR is in a sound financial position and is expected to continue the positive earnings momentum into FY12.

Based on one year forward earnings, WOR is trading at a more than 50% premium to the industry average.

Whilst this may appear to suggest the company is overvalued, we feel the premium is justified when considering WOR’s relatively stronger growth prospects, cash flow generation and a five-year average return on equity of over 20%.

The long-term relationships WorleyParsons has fostered with its blue-chip clients is likely to yield considerable benefits for the company, particularly as miners look to capitalise on rising commodity prices as well as the world’s shift to alternative energy sources.

We believe that WOR is poised for growth, and is defiantly a stock to watch for 2012.

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James Hardie Industries (ASX:JHX) is a leading international building materials group that produces a wide range of fibre cement building materials used in the exterior and interior of residential and commercial buildings.

The company is also the largest seller of home siding (imitation wood) in the US, and produces fibre cement in the US, Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines.

Approximately 80% of JHX’s sales come from the housing industry, and the majority of this exposure is via the US housing market.

Although the US property crash has been a millstone on JHX, recent evidence suggests the market may have turned the corner.

JHX focus on efficiency and market share gains has placed it in an advantageous position to benefit from increased US housing activity.

US housing recovery

Although the US housing sector has been in a well established decline for much of the past five years, recent evidence is pointing to a long-awaited recovery.

Among the relevant housing indicators for James Hardie are housing starts and building permits.

Housing starts measure the number of new monthly building constructions, whilst building permits are more of a leading indicator in that they measure the number of new monthly residential building permits.

Since May 2011, both these indicators have been steadily rising in a sign Americans are beginning to take advantage of the country’s record low interest rates.

Furthermore, we see this momentum continuing due to the slowly strengthening US jobs market and the Federal Reserve’s pledge to maintain low interest rates until the end of 2014.

Operating results

In late November, JHX reported a 1Q12 net operating profit of US$41.2 million, which was double its result in 1Q11.

Despite reporting low demand, James Hardie was able to achieve its profit on the back of operational improvements such as a reduction in fixed costs, as well as an increased share of the fibre cement market.

This increased market share, positions JHX well in the event of an acceleration of the US housing recovery.

Outlook

JHX forecast FY12 net operating profit of US$126 – US$140 million.  Although management was cautious about the outlook for US housing, recent data points to a noticeable pickup in this industry.

With US employment inching higher, housing affordability high and the Fed committed to a record low interest rate environment, there are enough incentives to drive continued improvement in residential construction activity.

We at Australian Stock Report believe that a focus on cost control and increasing market share has placed JHX in a strong position to leverage off any US housing recovery.

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We launched our Speculative Report in mid-December 2011 to cater for traders looking to leverage small stocks to make big gains.

One of the unique features of the report is our Movers & Shakers page, which scans the market for the best short-term trading opportunities.

The page has been a great success, picking many of the market’s best performing micro-cap stocks over the last six weeks. Below is a list of 5 of the best stocks we have unearthed:

COMPANY: Peninsula Energy (PEN) is a small uranium developer, with projects in US, South Africa and Fiji. The company recently completed studies that confirmed the viability of two of its projects in Wyoming USA.

TRADE: We unearthed PEN in the report on the 20th of December when its share price was just 2.9 cents and the company had a market cap of only $62 million.

RESULT: PEN has since risen 83% to its last price of 5.3 cents.

COMPANY: Alliance Resources (AGS) is a small diversified exploration company, although its main focus is on uranium through its stake in the Four Mile uranium project in SA. The project has been subject to litigation regarding native title, and AGS shares have rallied strongly in the last six weeks after revealing litigation has been adjourned.

TRADE: We unearthed AGS in the report on 14th of December when it was trading at 21 cents with a market cap of $68 million.

RESULT: AGS has risen 71% since then to trade at 36 cents.

COMPANY: ZYL Limited (ZYL) is a small metallurgical coal explorer, working on a few coal projects in South Africa. In mid-December – the day we featured the stock in the report – ZYL advised the market that it had attracted some takeover interest and had hired Macquarie as its financial adviser.

TRADE: We unearthed ZYL in the report on 14th of December when it was trading at 14.5 cents and had a market cap of $60 million.

RESULT: ZYL has since risen 66% to 24 cents.

COMPANY: African Iron (AKI) is an emerging iron ore player, developing an iron ore mine in the Republic of Congo that is scheduled to start significant production next year. The company received a takeover offer earlier this month from South African miner Exxaro, which has bid up to 57 cents a share.

TRADE: We unearthed AKI in the report on 16th of December, when it was trading at 34 cents and had a market cap of $170 million.

RESULT: AKI has since risen 65% to 56 cents per share.

COMPANY: Golden Rim Resources (GMR) is small gold and copper explorer, operating in West Africa. The company has recently released drilling results from its exploration in Burkina Faso, which showed very high-grade intercepts.

TRADE: We unearthed GMR in the report on 20th of December, when its share price was just 10.5c and the company had a market cap of only $38 million.

RESULT: GMR has since risen 62% to its last price of 17 cents.

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Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd (ASX:SAR) is an Australian mid-tier gold producer based in WA.

The company bought its major assets off Sons of Gwalia back in 2006 – when the latter went bankrupt – and has done well to develop the assets and move from an explorer to a producer.

SAR’s key assets are located in the South Laverton mining district, 120km North-East of famed gold mining town Kalgoorlie, in Western Australia. This includes around 200 granted tenements and applications pending spread over 2,500 square kilometres.

Since purchasing these assets, SAR has spent money exploring the tenements and developing the projects to production.

The company completed a Definitive Feasibility Study on the South Laverton gold project in December 2008 and started producing gold in early 2010.

Ramping up

Having started production in April last year, SAR has achieved strong production quite quickly and established itself as an enticing small producer.

The company produced 111,163 ounces of gold in FY11, its first full year of production, at an average cash cost of $738 an ounce.

SAR has forecast production of around 125,000 ounces in FY12 at costs of around $700-$750 an ounce. So far FY12 is off to a solid start, with the company recently releasing its September quarter Activities Statement. Production of 31,790 ounces at cash cost of $730 was right in light with guidance.

By de-watering some of its flooded pits, SAR hopes to ramp up production to over 160,000 ounces a year by 2015.  Management has proven to be conservative and reliable so far, offering some reassurance in what is a speculative sector.

Saracen Mineral Holdings has managed significant upgrades to its gold resources and reserves, presently standing at around 3,300,000oz and 880,000oz respectively.  Most of the reserves are open-pit, which allows for easier and cheaper mining.

The sizeable resources and potential underground mining pave the way for a long mine life, while the company has extensive exploration potential to upgrade this further.

The hunt for Red October

SAR’s has planned to spend $35 million on exploration activities in FY12, a sizeable budget given the size of the company.

The company recently completed a placement, raising $50.2 million and helping the company to end the September quarter with $60.3 million in net cash and no debt. A share purchase plan and subsequent placement have raised a further $15 million since.

Together with cash generated from production (almost $10 million last quarter), SAR will not need to raise significant fresh capital to fund this.

Much of SAR’s exploration efforts will be in exploring its Red October project. The company expects to have completed dewatering the pits shortly, to be followed by underground development work.

Previous drilling results have confirmed the continuity of ore body at Red October and further exploration efforts could lead to significant resource upgrades relatively quickly.

Production from Red October is expected to commence in FY12, but potential major exploration success could provide a major share catalyst before then.

Outlook

SAR only started gold production just over 18 months ago but is already generating output of around 125,000 ounces a year.

Incremental production upgrades could come in the next few years, but the significant upside potential comes from the development of its Red October operation.

While SAR offers significant exploration upside, its existing production provides extra protection, and suggests that the market could re-rate the stock and push SAR shares much higher than current levels.

SAR is a defiantly a stock to watch.

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Nexus Energy (ASX:NXS) is small cap emerging oil and gas producer, with operations focused on the Gippsland Basin, offshore Victoria and the Browse Basin, offshore Western Australia.

In 2009, NXS transitioned from explorer to producer with the start-up of the Longtom gas project.

The Longtom project was plagued by production problems in late 2010 due to the detection of mercury in its gas.  However those issues have since been resolved and the project has been delivering record production of late.

A lot of interest currently surrounds NXS’s 85% stake in the Crux liquids project (15% Osaka Gas-owned), which is Shell-operated and has a reserve estimate of around 75 million barrels of oil.

With liquefied natural gas (LNG) seeing global demand as an alternative fuel source, NXS and its peers are in good standing owing to the LNG boom and recovering commodities market.

The company is in the midst of securing financing for its share of Crux’s development, and a final investment decision (FID) is expected by the end of the year.

The Crux of the matter

Nexus is looking to commercialise the Crux project, but before a FID can be reached, it must secure financing.  The group is currently trying to obtain up to US$1 billion in financing, with the lenders currently conducting due diligence.

Encouragingly, NXS has also identified a potential JV partner for the project, and is expecting a binding proposal in the next few weeks.

NXS’ proposed 35% sell-down of its equity stake in the project, combined with the potential US$1 billion in debt financing, are signs that the group is on track achieve the FID by the proposed target date.

The economics of the project have already been confirmed under varying capex and schedule sensitivities.  Construction of the project is expected to total around $1.78 billion.

Therefore, achieving FID by the target date will help alleviate concerns over NXS’ ability to fund the project’s developments costs.

Whilst the stock has rallied ahead of the FID, we believe the market has yet to fully price in the huge revenue potential of the project (assuming a positive FID).

The Longtom and short of it

In late October, NXS reported Longtom gas production of 6.4 petajoules (PJ), which was 7.4% higher than the previous quarter.

Saleable gas production totaled 6.2 PJ, which was up 6.7% on June quarter output. This drove revenue up from $27 million to $29 million in the same period.

The increase in Longtom output has continued the turnaround in this asset, which faced production issues early in the financial year due to mercury detection in the delivered gas.

The installation of mercury removal equipment has so far allowed Nexus Energy to meet gas nominations under its contract with customer, Santos.

Future growth will come from the exploration of Longtom South, which is a prospect located 4km south of Longtom.

Given the proximity of the two fields, it wouldn’t cost NXS as much to develop Longtom South. If gas is ultimately discovered, it will provide another source of cash flow, thus increasing the company’s value.

Outlook

NXS has had a fantastic turnaround in the past few months, as anticipation builds ahead of its proposed FID by the end of the year.

The company is in the midst of securing financing for the project and is also in negotiations to sell down part of its stake.

That’s not to say either of these will definitely happen, as there is always the chance of NXS failing to obtain the required funding.

However, NXS hasn’t indicated any issues with the FID process thus far.  Therefore we believe the potential payoff from taking a position in Nexus Energy is worth the risk.

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Myer Holdings (ASX:MYR) is one of Australia’s largest department store groups targeting a wide spectrum of consumers.

Myer has a national network of stores in Australia. It retails designer, national, and international fashion and apparel for men, women and children.

MYR focuses on its retail presence and execution, and also operates a consumer loyalty program.

A cloudy macroeconomic picture has been a major thorn for MYR and its retail peers in recent times.

However, the RBA’s recent rate cut could be the first sign of a near-term turnaround in the company’s fortunes.

Although MYR’s first quarter sales were weak, we see a pickup in momentum heading into 2012, which makes the stock an attractive proposition around current levels.

Confidence is key

MYR’s troubles have stemmed largely from concerns about the Australian economy, specifically the deterioration in consumer sentiment.

Consumer sentiment has remained weak for much of the past year amid global market volatility and the RBA’s hawkish stance on monetary policy.

This has prompted consumers to save more and cut back on discretionary spending, which has hit the sales of retailers such as MYR and David Jones.

However, things have improved in recent weeks, particularly with the RBA’s recent dovishness translating into an interest rate cut this month.

Consumer sentiment shot up 6.3% this month in response to the rate cut as well as the potential for further easing.

When combined with the Aussie dollar’s recent decline, the economic conditions are ripe for a near-term pickup in domestic consumer spending. This should come as a welcome relief for MYR’s sales heading into 2012.

Deflating trading conditions

Yesterday MYR reported a 3.5% fall in 1Q12 sales from a year earlier to $$681.million. On a like-for-like basis, sales were down 5.1%.

The group experienced a tough trading environment during the quarter, but nevertheless said sales were tracking expectations.  It also reaffirmed its full year forecast for flat sales and a 10% fall in net profit.

This came as a relief to the market, which had feared a worse result given the recent global economic turbulence.

The sales result came on the back of a tough FY11, in which net profit fell 3.6% to $162.7 million. Sales were also down for the year amid challenging retail conditions.

A final dividend of 11.5 cents was declared, bringing the full year dividend to 22.5 cents. Maintaining this dividend in FY12 would result in a robust yield ~9%, but even if the group cuts its dividend by 10% (20.25 cents), it would still deliver a healthy yield of ~8%.

Just how valuable?

Despite MYR’s weak 1Q12, we expect an improvement in sales heading into Christmas as consumers take advantage of the recent rate cut.

Unless Europe’s debt crisis intensifies, the rate cut may also prompt consumers to release pent up demand in 2012, which we see as underpinning a sales recovery for MYR.

Heading into FY13, we see a rebound in both earnings and sales for MYR as the Australian economy gathers steam due to the mining boom.

Myer is currently trading at a deep discount to its rivals, given the poor earnings expectation for FY12.  The group’s current P/E of just 8.9x represents a ~30% discount to its industry average.

However we believe the discount is too deep given the company’s relatively stronger leverage to improving consumer sentiment.

Adjusting the discount to 15%, and using a blended EPS spread over FY12, FY13 and FY14, our fundamental-based price target for MYR is $2.77, which represents good value around current levels.

Outlook

Aussie retailers have been out of favour for a while due to cyclical issues (tough economy) and more serious structural problems (strong AUD and online competition).

Whilst we are cautious on retailers as whole due to those structural issues, there is finally some value in the sector given the potential for an improvement in trading conditions.

The RBA’s recent rate cut could prompt consumers to release pent-up demand, which we believe will benefit retailers with strong operational leverage such as MYR.

Although the group’s first quarter sales were weak, we see a pickup in momentum heading into 2012.

Adjusting MYR’s deep discount to its peers, we have a price target of $2.77, which offers decent value at the current share price, particularly when factoring the healthy dividend yield.

If MYR keeps picking up momentum it will be a stock to watch right into the new year.

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WorleyParsons (ASX:WOR) provides professional engineering and management services to the energy, resource and complex process industries.

WOR offers a broad range of services, from feasibility studies to design and project services, and is exposed to a number of sectors.

The group is a leader in its industry and has established long-term relationships with a number of companies, including some blue chip stocks.

Despite facing obstacles in FY11, WOR was able to grow its profit and revenue, with the Hydrocarbons business driving the result.

Moreover, WOR is ideally placed for the future, as the lure of higher energy prices is likely to drive demand for its services from the bigger oil companies.

FY11 results highlight underlying strength

On 24 August, WOR reported a 25% lift in FY11 net profit to $364.2 million. On an underlying basis, profit was up 2.5% to $298.5 million, matching previous guidance.

A final dividend of 50 cents was declared, bringing the full year dividend to 86 cents per share.

It was a solid result considering WOR faced a number of headwinds such as the strengthening AUD, Middle East instability and natural disasters.

The result didn’t really reflect the strength of the underlying business. Revenue grew 19% on-year to $5.9 billion, driving by a strong performance in the Hydrocarbons business.

The group was also in financially strong shape, with a gearing ratio of just 22% and operating cash flow growth of 5.1% in FY11. Moreover it had more than 50% in untapped debt facilities.

Taken together, this tells us WOR has significant firepower to expand its business –organically and/or through M&A activity.

The group forecast good underlying profit growth in FY12, continuing the momentum displayed in the 2H11. The guidance was reaffirmed at WOR’s AGM last week.

Hyper about Hydrocarbons

The majority of WOR’s earnings are in the Hydrocarbons division. Hydrocarbons are organic compounds, found mostly in crude oil.

WOR’s leverage to the energy market is a key attraction, particularly as demand for oil and gas is expected to strength in coming years due to emerging market growth.

The recent market turbulence has raised questions about faltering energy demand in the developed economies, which has been a factor behind WorleyParson’s recent share price weakness.

However we believe these fears are overblown given the oil supply/demand imbalance (dwindling oil supplies vs. growing energy demand) is only expected to worsen in coming years.

The lure of energy price appreciation at a time of growing demand is likely to see the big energy companies continue their ramp up of capex spending, putting WOR in an ideal position to accelerate its contract win rate.

LNG is the future

The big oil companies have also recognized that the world is moving towards more unconventional sources of energy such as LNG.

There are number of massive projects being undertaken throughout Australia, and WOR has had a hand in some of the key ones such as Pluto and more recently, Wheatstone.

WOR won a $235 million contract from Chevron for the construction of management services at the Wheatstone Project.

WOR’s experience in developing LNG projects, coupled with the established relationships it has with its blue-chip clients, makes it ideally placed to benefit from this increased focus on alternative energy.

Outlook

As the global growth engine continues to shift from developed economies to the developing regions, there will be increased demand for commodities.

As mining companies look to meet this demand, there is going to be a significant increase in capex activities over the coming years.

This will strengthen the market for WOR’s services, providing it with plenty of growth opportunities, especially in the hydrocarbons space.

WOR is in sound financial position and is expected to continue the positive earnings momentum into FY12.

The long-term relationships WOR has fostered with its blue-chip clients is likely to yield considerable benefits for the company, particularly as miners look to capitalize on rising commodity prices as well as the world’s shift to alternative energy sources.

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Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) is one of the world’s leading airlines and an Australian icon.

On top of its standard domestic and international flights, QAN also owns budget airline Jetstar, regional airline QantasLink and related travel businesses Qantas Flight Catering.

Although some still consider QAN as a blue chip stock, its huge share price fall since the GFC has taken away a lot of its lustre.

Today QAN resumed flights after the Fair Work Tribunal ordered the termination of industrial action by its workers.

The carrier sensationally grounded its entire fleet on Saturday in response to the strikes, forcing the government to intervene in the crisis.

Qantas and its workers now have 21 days to resolve their dispute otherwise the Tribunal will impose a resolution of its own.

Following the tribunal’s decision, QAN has been one of the best performers in the Australian share market today.

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Ten Network Holdings Limited (ASX:TEN). TEN ‘s FY11 profit slid 90.5% to $14.2 million, driven by an $85.4 million impairment charge that related to staff redundancy costs.

Underlying earnings slumped 24% to $74.1 million, with revenue rising a paltry 1% to $1 billion. A final dividend of 5.25 cents was declared.

However the group said it will keep costs flat in FY12 and that a planned programming overhaul will help it better compete with its rivals.

The encouraging outlook has lit a rocket under TEN shares, making them among the best performing in the Australian stock market.

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