The Reject Shop (TRS) is a discount variety retail company, targeting Australian consumers through low price points, bargain-purchasing and convenient shopping locations. As of 30 June 2012, TRS had 239 stores in Australia, with plans to open another 40 in FY13.

At these stores the company offers a wide variety of general consumer merchandise, with a focus on everyday needs, such as toiletries, cosmetics, homewares, personal care products, hardware, basic furniture, household cleaning products, kitchenware, confectionery and snack food.

The company has two key advantages that many of its mid-to-upper market rivals don’t – a strong AUD benefits earnings due to lower import costs, whilst the substitute nature of its products can appeal to cost-conscious consumers.

Consumer environment

The environment in which TRS and all retailers have been operating has been challenging to say the least, but there are signs that some of these challengers area abating.

The latest reading of the Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey showed the index rising 0.6%, to 100.6 – its third consecutive month above the 100 level.

A reading above 100 indicates that more consumers are optimistic about the economy than pessimistic. Unfortunately the increase in consumer confidence has not translated into an increase in retail sales, which declined 0.2% in the month of December.

Oddly enough the release of the poor retail sales saw the sector move higher, as the market took the view the numbers add to the likelihood of further cash rate cuts.

FY12 results

TRS’s FY12 results were a big improvement on what was a disappointing FY11. The company grew its net profit by 35.6% on-year, to $21.9 million.

The addition of 18 new stores over the year helped sales climb 9.9%, to $555.3 million. An increase in stores was not the only reason for the jump in sales; comparable store sales grew 0.5% over the year, with a 3.2% jump in the second half.

We believe that the 2H12 momentum will continue into TRS’s 1H13 results, which are scheduled to be released on 20 February 2013.

Outlook

TRS’s FY12 results were impressive on several fronts. Besides from the strong store sales growth the group was able to reduce its debt by $16.9 million in FY12, while increasing free cash flow from $1 million in FY11 to $25.2 million in FY12.

Another notable item in TRS’s results was that gross margins rose from 38.9% in FY11, to 44.1% in FY12, likely a combination of a strong Aussie dollar and a reduction in shipping costs.

While retail sales numbers are an important indicator for the retail space, the substitute nature of TRS’s products can appeal to cost-conscious consumers, thus giving the company the ability to grow its sales in a weak environment.

Overall we believe that the aforementioned healthy balance sheet, strong comparable sales growth and expansion of gross margin will continue to drive TRSs earnings and in turn push its share price higher in the near-term.

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ANZ Banking Group (ANZ) is the nation’s third-largest bank by market capitalisation, and is among the top 50 banks in the world.

The group provides a variety of banking and financial products and services to around 8 million customers, and employs 48,000 people worldwide.

ANZ operates in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, the Pacific, the Middle East, Europe and America. In recent years the group’s strategy has shifted to become a super-regional bank. To this end, the bank is aiming for between 25-30% of its earnings to come from its Asia, Pacific, Europe and America Division (APEA) by 2017, with the major focus being the high growth Asian region.

China manufacturing in expansion mode

For much of the early part of 2012 the discussion surrounding China was whether it was heading for a hard landing or a soft landing. The fears of a hard landing abated by the end of 2012’s second half, helped by China’s central bank adopting an easing bias towards monetary policy.

Measures including lower interest rates and targeted fiscal stimulus appear to be flowing through to China’s manufacturing sector, which is beginning to expand after an extended period of contraction. Last month, the HSBC Flash PMI showed factory activity accelerated to a two year high in January.

A pickup in manufacturing activity is important for ANZ as it implies Chinese companies are taking advantage of easier credit conditions and borrowing money in order to expand.

What to look for in trading update

ANZ’s FY12 results revealed a 2.6% increase in FY12 cash profit to $5.75 billion.  The APEA strategy also continues to be a key driver for ANZ’s overall business.

In FY12 this region’s income comprised 21% of overall profit, putting the group on track to achieve its aim for APEA to contribute 25% – 30% of overall profit by 2017.

Today CBA reported a 6% on-year rise in 1H13 cash profit to $3.78 billion.  Impressively, the result came on the back of a 6% increase in revenue.

The group’s net interest margin rose 4 basis points from the previous half, in a sign wholesale funding pressures are easing for the four majors. CBA’s first half results are a healthy indicator for the industry, and we expect ANZ to announce a similarly positive result when it provides a trading update for the first quarter later this week.

Outlook

ANZ’s FY12 results provide it with a good base to tackle FY13, and we expect some good news in its first quarter trading update. We will look for an improvement in interest margin and asset quality, as well as a cash profit driven by good cost control and evidence of top line growth.

The group’s exposure to Asia will continue to be an important earnings driver, and the benefits of this leverage will translate to further share price appreciation in our view.

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ANZ Banking Group (ANZ) is the nation’s third-largest bank by market capitalisation, and is among the top 50 banks in the world.

The group provides a variety of banking and financial products and services to around 8 million customers, and employs 48,000 people worldwide. ANZ operates in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, the Pacific, the Middle East, Europe and America.

In recent years the group’s strategy has shifted to become a super-regional bank. To this end, the bank is aiming for between 25-30% of its earnings to come from its Asia, Pacific, Europe and America Division (APEA) by 2017, with the major focus being the high growth Asian region.

FY12 results

ANZ’s FY12 results were good without being great. The banking major recorded FY12 statutory profit of $5.7 billion, up 6% from the FY11 result.

An increased capital base saw EPS only rise by 2% year on year, to 213.4 cents a share. Dividend growth over the financial year managed to outpace inflation, with a 4% increase to 145 cents a share.

We were most impressed with direction of the group’s super-regional strategy.

 
As the above shows the group managed to grow the income from APEA by 5% over FY12 to 21%. Notably the group also managed to slow down operating expense growth in the region from 11% to 4%.

The group’s APEA strategy continues to be a key driver for ANZ’s overall business results and we think this will continue as the group strives for a contribution of 25% – 30% of overall profit by 2017.

China expanding again!

For much of the early part of 2012 the discussion surrounding China was whether the slowdown in growth would be a hard landing or a soft landing. The fears of a hard landing abated by the end of the second half, helped by China’s central bank adopting an easing bias towards monetary policy.

The central bank actually began its stimulus measures in December 2011 when it implemented the first of a series of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts. After cutting the RRR by 1.5% the PBOC then cut the country’s official interest rate by a little over 0.5% in the months of June and July.

These stimulus measures have began to show signs of flowing through to China’s manufacturing sector, which was the cornerstones of the country’s explosive growth of the last 10 years.

The month of November saw the HSBC Flash Manufacturing Index return a reading of over 50 for the first time in 12-months, indicating the sector had returned to expansion. Every month since that return to expansion was followed by an increase in the index, with yesterday’s reading of 51.9 marking a 24-month high.

Outlook

ANZ’s FY12 results provide it with a good base to tackle FY13. The year was not an easy one for the global banks in general, with the eurozone crisis leading to higher funding costs, which increased pressure on bank interest margins.

ANZ’s net interest margin contracted 11 basis points over the year. That being said, it was the group’s exposure to Asia that allowed it to grow earnings.

We believe that ANZ’s leverage to the growing Asian region will continue to benefit the company and this is expected to result in further share price appreciation.

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STW Communications (SGN) is Australasia’s largest marketing communications group, comprising over 75 specialist companies.

Through its subsidiaries, SGN works with Australasia’s biggest brands and some of the world’s biggest companies, including IBM, Ford, Panadol, Bendigo Bank, PepsiCo, Hyundai, Castrol and Dick Smith, to name just a few.s.

The acquisitions

In late October 2012, the company announced plans to acquire three companies, paid for via a $40 million capital raising. Markitforce (75% SGN ownership) is a leader in promotional campaign execution and point of sale fulfilment for local and global clients, with clients such as has Unilever, L’Oreal and Boehringer Ingelheim.

The acquisition will strengthen SGN’s execution capabilities and offer it exposure to the attractive retail and shopper marketing segment, which only adds to its already well diversified portfolio.

Maverick Marketing and Communications(Maverick) (80% SGN ownership) is a leader in experiential marketing from strategic and creative development through to execution. It has clients such as, Telstra BigPond, Coca Cola, Westpac, Bonds, Target and Vodafone to name a few.

The acquisition will provide SGN with experiential marketing capabilities, but we think it will provide a great opportunity for SGN’s current companies to leverage Maverick’s client base.

Switched on Media (SOM) (75% SGN Ownership) is a digital agency specialising in search engine marketing and social media. SOM’s client base includes Canon, Fairfax digital, Cochlear and Westfield. The acquisition of SOM will not only boost but also compliment SGN’s current digital capabilities.

Impact of acquisition

The total cost of the acquisitions (including Amblique) is $30.6 million; this includes an estimate of the likely earnout payments to the previous owners.

SGN forecast a full year contribution from the acquisitions for CY13 as follows: revenue of $29.8 million and EBITDA of $6.1 million. For CY13 the acquisitions are likely to be EPS neutral on a pre-synergy basis.

We expect synergy benefits, especially the cross selling opportunities to some very large blue-chip companies, to provide SGN with some major growth potential.

Outlook

When SGN reported its 1H12 results, it acknowledged the challenging macro economy and stuck to its FY12 forecast for mid-single digit net profit growth. Longer term, however, it remains in a strong position to benefit from the ongoing shift to digital publishing.

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Wotif.com Holdings (WTF) is an online travel services business, which represents 23,500 in more than 67 counties. The group’s main website is wotif.com, but it also operates under lastminute.com.au, travel.com.au, Asia Web Direct, LateStays.com, GoDo.com.au and Arnold Travel Technology.

WTF, through the aforementioned websites, offers a variety of services that include flights, insurance, car rental, and travel accommodation and packages across hotels, motels, serviced apartments, resorts, guesthouses and bed & breakfasts. The service allows customers to book rooms at a heavy discount and at the same time help hotels better manage their vacancies.

FY12 impress, while 1H13 disappoints

At first glance WTF’s FY12 results looked good, however when placed in the context of the weak domestic travel market, the results were fantastic. Revenue over the year was up 5%, to $145.3 million. Net profit was $58 million, up 13.8% on the FY11 result.

The results were driven by an increase in accommodation rates and sales, and also some significant growth in WTF’s flight booking service. WTF’s operating profit margin also increased from 56% to 59%, with the group demonstrating good cost control whilst expanding revenue.

On a more disappointing side, WTF said the first quarter of fiscal year 2013 continues to reflect economic weakness. The 1Q13 performance was in line with the 1Q12 and likely to continue for the remainder of 2012.

The group is essentially saying that it expects little revenue or margin growth for the 1H13 as the operations continue to endure a period of prolonged weakness.

The good news

The AGM was not all bad news with WTF announcing its plans to lift its booking commission rate by 1% from 1 January 2013. This will be followed by a further lift of the same amount on 1 January 2014.

The group had $1.16 billion worth of transactions in FY12, and a 1% increase in commissions on this figure would increase of $11.6 million in revenue.

If the group’s strong operating profit of 59% stays consistent, the increased commissions would equate to a pre-tax profit increase of $6.8 million.

Even with flat transaction growth over the next two years, the two sets of increased commissions suggest the company still has the ability to grow earnings.

Outlook

WTF’s FY12 results showed a company that is able to grow earnings even in a tough environment. We think that the increase in commissions starting 1 January 2013 will negate the effect of continued weakness within the domestic accommodation market.

We would also expect some of the increased revenue to be redirected towards expanding into the less mature flight and holiday letting businesses, which has already started to show promising signs. Given the aforementioned factors we feel WTF has plenty of scope to continue growing its earnings, providing further support for the share price.

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Telstra Corporation Limited is a full service domestic and international telecommunications provider for Australia.

The Company provides telephone exchange lines to homes and businesses, supplying local, long distance and international telephone calls and supplying mobile telecommunications services. Telstra also provides data, internet, on-line services and directory services.

Telecommunications Stock Telstra announced that it has finalised its $11 billion agreement with the federal government and NBN co for the rollout of the National Broadband Network (NBN).

The agreement will see Telstra receive close to $11 billion over the life of the agreement, which ensures that the company’s infrastructure will be used by the NBN.

CEO David Thodey said that Telstra has concluded almost three years of intense and complex negotiations and is pleased to deliver this positive outcome for customers and shareholders.

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QBE Insurance Group Limited is an insurance company which underwrites most forms of commercial and industrial insurance policies, as well as individual policies.

QBE also manages Lloyds syndicates and provides investment management services. The Company provides its services both domestically and internationally.

Financial Stock QBE Insurance announced that it is in the final stages of negations to acquire two ‘bolt on’ acquisitions.

The acquisitions are expected to contribute up to US$500 million in annual written premium to the QBE business.

The company which recently raised $450 million from an institutional capital raising said that it will pay for the acquisitions from internal resources.

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AWE Limited (AWE) is a small oil and gas explorer and producer. The majority of its operations are located in Australia and New Zealand, though the company is becoming increasingly interested in international operations.

The company’s major projects are the onshore Casino gas field (Otway Basin, SA), Cliff Head project (Perth Basin, WA) and the BassGas project (VIC & TAS) and now, in the Perth Shale Gas Basin. AWE is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and is a member of the S&P/ASX 200.

AWE announced that it has it has been advised that the Western Australian Minister of Environment has dismissed the states EPA appeal against its operations in the Perth Basin.

The company said that based on current availability of equipment, it expects that the hydraulic stimulation activities on all three wells will commence during the second quarter of 2012.

Managing Director Bruce Clement said that he is pleased with the decision, and looks forward to test the potential of the wells.

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Aristocrat Leisure Limited manufactures and sells gaming machines in Australia and internationally.  The Company also supplies gaming systems, software, table gaming equipment and other gaming related products and services to casinos, clubs and hotels.

Industrial stock Aristocrat Leisure posted its FY11 earnings, showing a net profit of $66.1 million, a 14% fall compared to FY10.  The result was better than the market expected.

Revenue grew 11.4% to $762.7 million over the same period on a constant currency basis.

CEO Same Odell said that the company was targeting the most profitable segments, and this action drove share gains in major markets like the U.S. and Australia.

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Energy Resources of Australia (ASX:ERA) is a uranium company which mines, processes and sells uranium oxide from the Ranger mine in the Northern Territory and uranium concentrates sourced outside Australia to nuclear electric utilities in Japan, South Korea, Europe and North America. ERA also provides environmental consulting services.

Australian shares, Energy Resources today announced that it will book a loss of $153.6 million for the CY11, compared to a profit of $47 million in CY10.

The company cited that production at its flagship mines was suspended for five months due to heavy rains.

Energy Resources is forecasting a uranium oxide output of between 3000 and 3700 metric tons for 2012, compared to 2641 last calendar year.

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