Newcrest Mining (NCM) is Australia’s largest gold producer and one of the world’s top five gold mining companies by production, reserves, and market cap. NCM’s main operations are in Australia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Fiji and West Africa, and has a global workforce exceeding 19,000.

The company has a portfolio of predominantly low-cost, long-life operating mines, although it also has a history of operations troubles at its key projects (both operational and developmental).

1H13 Results

NCM’s 1H13 results were disappointing on several fronts. Gold production for the half was 953,000 ounces, down 18% on prior corresponding half.

Cash costs increased 8% on same period in FY12. The poor production results led to revenue falling 28% and underlying profit plummeted 48%.

Guidance downgrade

Late last month, the group downgraded its full year production – its fifth downgrade in the last two years. Gold production was lowered from 2.3 to 2.5 million ounces of gold to 2.0 to 2.15 million ounces.

The company cited operational issues at Lihir and Gosowong as the reason for the downgrade. While the downgrade was not a massive shock given the poor 1H results, it is yet more evidence of management inability to forecasts its own production.

Gold Prices

While the groups poor results have contributed to recent share price weakness, it correlation to the gold price has also contributed.

The above shows the gold price (white line) and NCM share price (yellow line) over the last nine month.

As is shown, the fall in the gold price has dragged on NCM’s share price. With fears of monetary easing-induced hyperinflation are abating, other asset classes such as equities are offering relatively stronger returns.

Outlook

NCM’s 1H13 results showed the effects of both poor production and a falling gold price.

Disappointingly, the group last month downgraded its full year guidance. This downgrade was already from what we would consider low-end guidance and while not a complete surprise it does not leave us with much faith its management’s ability to forecast its own production.

With the flight to stronger returning asset classes likely to continue in the near-term, we see continued weakness for the gold price and as a by-product NCM’s share price.

Newcrest was issued as a share to sell to our members on April 11th, if you would like further information you can sign up for FREE share recommendations and access all our research files on not only NCM but all our current trading ideas. Simply click here and starting trading today, free for 7 days.

ANZ Banking Group (ANZ) is the nation’s third-largest bank by market capitalisation, and is among the top 50 banks in the world.

The group provides a variety of banking and financial products and services to around 8 million customers, and employs 48,000 people worldwide.

ANZ operates in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, the Pacific, the Middle East, Europe and America. In recent years the group’s strategy has shifted to become a super-regional bank. To this end, the bank is aiming for between 25-30% of its earnings to come from its Asia, Pacific, Europe and America Division (APEA) by 2017, with the major focus being the high growth Asian region.

China manufacturing in expansion mode

For much of the early part of 2012 the discussion surrounding China was whether it was heading for a hard landing or a soft landing. The fears of a hard landing abated by the end of 2012’s second half, helped by China’s central bank adopting an easing bias towards monetary policy.

Measures including lower interest rates and targeted fiscal stimulus appear to be flowing through to China’s manufacturing sector, which is beginning to expand after an extended period of contraction. Last month, the HSBC Flash PMI showed factory activity accelerated to a two year high in January.

A pickup in manufacturing activity is important for ANZ as it implies Chinese companies are taking advantage of easier credit conditions and borrowing money in order to expand.

What to look for in trading update

ANZ’s FY12 results revealed a 2.6% increase in FY12 cash profit to $5.75 billion.  The APEA strategy also continues to be a key driver for ANZ’s overall business.

In FY12 this region’s income comprised 21% of overall profit, putting the group on track to achieve its aim for APEA to contribute 25% – 30% of overall profit by 2017.

Today CBA reported a 6% on-year rise in 1H13 cash profit to $3.78 billion.  Impressively, the result came on the back of a 6% increase in revenue.

The group’s net interest margin rose 4 basis points from the previous half, in a sign wholesale funding pressures are easing for the four majors. CBA’s first half results are a healthy indicator for the industry, and we expect ANZ to announce a similarly positive result when it provides a trading update for the first quarter later this week.

Outlook

ANZ’s FY12 results provide it with a good base to tackle FY13, and we expect some good news in its first quarter trading update. We will look for an improvement in interest margin and asset quality, as well as a cash profit driven by good cost control and evidence of top line growth.

The group’s exposure to Asia will continue to be an important earnings driver, and the benefits of this leverage will translate to further share price appreciation in our view.

This article was distributed to our members on February 11th, if you would like further information you can sign up for FREE 7day recommendations and access all our research files on not only ANZ but all our current trading ideas. Simply click here and starting trading today.

ANZ Banking Group (ANZ) is the nation’s third-largest bank by market capitalisation, and is among the top 50 banks in the world.

The group provides a variety of banking and financial products and services to around 8 million customers, and employs 48,000 people worldwide. ANZ operates in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, the Pacific, the Middle East, Europe and America.

In recent years the group’s strategy has shifted to become a super-regional bank. To this end, the bank is aiming for between 25-30% of its earnings to come from its Asia, Pacific, Europe and America Division (APEA) by 2017, with the major focus being the high growth Asian region.

FY12 results

ANZ’s FY12 results were good without being great. The banking major recorded FY12 statutory profit of $5.7 billion, up 6% from the FY11 result.

An increased capital base saw EPS only rise by 2% year on year, to 213.4 cents a share. Dividend growth over the financial year managed to outpace inflation, with a 4% increase to 145 cents a share.

We were most impressed with direction of the group’s super-regional strategy.

 
As the above shows the group managed to grow the income from APEA by 5% over FY12 to 21%. Notably the group also managed to slow down operating expense growth in the region from 11% to 4%.

The group’s APEA strategy continues to be a key driver for ANZ’s overall business results and we think this will continue as the group strives for a contribution of 25% – 30% of overall profit by 2017.

China expanding again!

For much of the early part of 2012 the discussion surrounding China was whether the slowdown in growth would be a hard landing or a soft landing. The fears of a hard landing abated by the end of the second half, helped by China’s central bank adopting an easing bias towards monetary policy.

The central bank actually began its stimulus measures in December 2011 when it implemented the first of a series of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts. After cutting the RRR by 1.5% the PBOC then cut the country’s official interest rate by a little over 0.5% in the months of June and July.

These stimulus measures have began to show signs of flowing through to China’s manufacturing sector, which was the cornerstones of the country’s explosive growth of the last 10 years.

The month of November saw the HSBC Flash Manufacturing Index return a reading of over 50 for the first time in 12-months, indicating the sector had returned to expansion. Every month since that return to expansion was followed by an increase in the index, with yesterday’s reading of 51.9 marking a 24-month high.

Outlook

ANZ’s FY12 results provide it with a good base to tackle FY13. The year was not an easy one for the global banks in general, with the eurozone crisis leading to higher funding costs, which increased pressure on bank interest margins.

ANZ’s net interest margin contracted 11 basis points over the year. That being said, it was the group’s exposure to Asia that allowed it to grow earnings.

We believe that ANZ’s leverage to the growing Asian region will continue to benefit the company and this is expected to result in further share price appreciation.

This article was distributed to our members on January 25th, if you would like further information you can sign up for FREE 7day recommendations and access all our research files on not only ANZ but all our current trading ideas. Simply click here and starting trading today.

Are you wanting to find out first hand from our panel of professional traders and analysts which stocks are set to sizzle and which could fizzle in 2103?

This half-day forum will deliver the best information you’ll find anywhere for investing in the share market. In addition to this you’ll also enjoy complimentary refreshments and post-event drinks and canapés plus a FREE book – Futures made simple (RRP$29.95), by professional trader and panellist Kel Butcher. Regardless of whether you are an experienced investor or a complete novice this event will be the smartest and most prosperous way to start the New Year.

Participants in our last What’s Hot, What’s Not Forum were provided with a number of investing tips which have proven to be extremely rewarding, see for yourself below.

 
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Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) is one of the world’s leading airlines and an Australian icon.

On top of its standard domestic and international flights, QAN also owns budget airline Jetstar, regional airline QantasLink and related travel businesses Qantas Flight Catering.

Although some still consider QAN as a blue chip stock, its huge share price fall since the GFC has taken away a lot of its lustre.

Today QAN resumed flights after the Fair Work Tribunal ordered the termination of industrial action by its workers.

The carrier sensationally grounded its entire fleet on Saturday in response to the strikes, forcing the government to intervene in the crisis.

Qantas and its workers now have 21 days to resolve their dispute otherwise the Tribunal will impose a resolution of its own.

Following the tribunal’s decision, QAN has been one of the best performers in the Australian share market today.

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Monadelphous Group (ASX:MND) is a leading engineering group providing extensive engineering construction, maintenance and industrial services to the mining, energy and infrastructure sectors.

Today MND reported an FY11 net profit of $95.1 million, up 14.2% on-year and beating analyst estimates.  A final dividend of 55 cents was declared.

Sales revenue was grew 13.2%, with all of MND’s divisions contributing to the result amid healthy demand from the resources and energy markets.

Monadelphous Group was bullish about the longer-term outlook, with record levels of capital investment in the mining industry expected over the next few years.

The optimistic forecast has sparked MND, which has been one of the best shares today.

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Brambles (ASX:BXB) is a leading global provider of support services and is involved in pallet and container pooling services. Pallets are the (usually) wooden frames that goods are stacked on for transport.

Today, BXB reported a 17% lift in FY11 underlying profit to US$857 million.  Revenue grew 13% on the back of net new business across all of BXB’s key markets.

BXB forecast an FY12 underlying profit of US$1,040 to US$1,100 million, although the guidance was subject to economic uncertainty.

The group also declared a final dividend of 13 cents.

BXB has been one the best performing shares in the Australian stock market on the back of today’s profit result.

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Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM) is the biggest Australian gold producer on the share market, with mining and exploration projects in Australia, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Indonesia and the US.

Gold remains in high demand due to a volatile US dollar and economic uncertainty, and as a result NCM has been one of the best stocks in the past few months.

Today, NCM reported a 63% surge in FY11 net profit to $908 million, driven mainly by surging gold prices and the production jump from its Lihir acquisition.

A final unfranked dividend of 20 cents was declared, in addition to a special unfranked dividend of 20 cents.

Underlying profit was up 36% on-year to $1.06 billion, coming in slightly ahead of analyst estimates.

NCM grew its FY11 output 43% to 2.5 million ounces of gold, and forecast FY12 production of 2.775 million – 2.925 million ounces.

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Eastern Star Gas (ASX:ESG) is focused on the exploration and development of coal seam gas (CSG) in Northern NSW for the Eastern Australian and potentially international LNG markets.

On 18 July, ESG accepted a $730 million takeover offer from Santos (STO).

The all-share offer values ESG at 90 cents, which represents a 51% premium to ESG’s closing price on Friday.

As part of the deal, STO has also agreed to sell a 20% interest in ESG’s Gunnedah permits to TRUenergy for $284 million.

ESG shares flew 41.2% on the day, making one of the best performers on the Australian share market.

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Sundance Resources (SDL) is an Australian-based international iron ore company developing the Mbalam Project in the Republic of Cameroon in the central west coast of Africa.

SDL is advancing a significant exploration program and feasibility studies on the project based on production of 35 million tonnes per year hematite.

It was also one of the hot stocks in the final months of 2010, surging from around 15 cents in September to a high around 60 cents by December.

Recently, the group had to deny newspaper reports that its majority shareholder Hanlong Mining is looking to make a full takeover offer.

SDL said on 16 May that it may sell up to 50% of its interest in the Mbalam Iron Project to a strategic partner.

The group is confident of successfully introducing a strategic partner to the project by the end of June 2011.

SDL shares rocketed 11% on the day of the takeover speculation, making it one of the best performers in the Australian share market.

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