Stocks to Watch News and Tips for the Australian Share Market
Share to buy – Toll Holdings Ltd
Toll Holdings (TOL) will sell five underperforming businesses, estimated to raise around $100m. We hail this as an improvement for operations and we’re now more confident the company can achieve its potential. Toll has an under geared balance sheet and as there is no need to reduce debt. As such, we suspect that there could be a capital return on the top of monetising the company's Singapore oil & gas supply base. On the technical front, TOL is displaying all the characteristics we would want to see. We have a solid bullish structure place, with the shorter-term EMAs crossed higher and the price action above the longer-term EMA filter, which is positive. Momentum is strong and amid an environment where yield plays are attractive, Toll Holdings fits the bills and should press higher. We’re targeting a move towards $6.80.
Fairfax Media (FXJ) On The Way Back
Fairfax Media Limited (FXJ) is an Australian multi-platform media group with a broad range of activities including news publishing, information and entertainment, advertising sales in newspaper, magazine and online formats, and radio broadcasting. FXJ conducts its core activities throughout Australia and New Zealand. Its major newspaper brands are The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Australian Financial Review. Additionally, FXJ owns a range of business magazines, websites, and regional and community newspapers. Stayz sale part of restructure This week FXJ announced the sale of Australian holiday rentals site, Stayz, to HomeAway for $220 million. The sale is part of a focus on restructuring the business in response to an ongoing deterioration in advertising revenue. Earlier this year the group consolidated its Australian publishing businesses under the Australian Publishing Media division in an effort to drive efficiencies and simplify its business model. Also, the Domain and Digital Ventures businesses were separated into standalone divisions, allowing the group to devote increased resources and management attention to areas of the business likely to drive its future growth. FY13 results FXJ’s FY13 results revealed a net loss of $16.4 million and a 5.9% slide in revenue to $2.2 billion. On an underlying basis, net profit fell 28.6% 108.3 million. This accounts for the divestments of Trade Me Group, US Agricultural and Victorian Community Publications, as well as continued impairments of mastheads, goodwill and licenses. The asset sales and impairments were needed, however, to streamline the business and repair the balance sheet. Net debt to EBITDA fell from 1.8x in FY12 to 0.4x in FY13. Also, interest cover increased from 4.5x to 6.4x. On both measures, FXJ is comfortably ahead of its debt covenants. Outlook Following the Stayz sale the balance sheet is in even stronger shape. FXJ said it is on track to achieve cost savings of $1.6 billion in FY14. This will help alleviate pressure on the Metro and Regional businesses, which were suffering falling revenue at the start of FY14. In a positive, however, the group is expanding its digital footprint, with The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age experiencing strong growth in digital subscriptions. So it appears the FXJ is growing by shrinking, shedding non-core assets and driving cost efficiencies to offset weak revenue. At the same, the investment into its digital capabilities is yielding early success, helping to improve sentiment towards the stock.
Good News Gets Better For Rio Tinto
Rio Tinto (RIO) is an international mining company listed on both the Australian Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. The group is an industry leader in most of the major commodities, including aluminium, coking and thermal coal, copper, manganese, iron ore, uranium, nickel, silver and titanium. Rio also has sizable interests in oil, gas and natural gas. China manufacturing growing again Iron ore makes up the most significant component of RIO’s business, around 44% of its overall revenue. Not only have iron prices risen around 19% since the end of June, but the outlook for the mineral appears to be improving. The iron ore recovery has coincided with data showing a return to growth for China’s manufacturing sector. On Monday, the HSBC Final PMI returned a reading of 50.8 for September, representing a slight acceleration in manufacturing growth from October’s 50.4 reading. It was also the third month in a row where China’s manufacturing sector expanded, adding to signs the economy is regaining its footing after a year slowing growth. Outlook Following a poor 1H13, RIO is generating a healthy dose of momentum and is ahead on a number of some of its strategic goals. Last week, RIO announced that iron ore production capacity will rapidly increase towards its targeted 360 million tonnes a year (MT/a), and at significantly lower cost than originally estimated. From a base run rate of 290Mt/a, RIO expects to reach its target between 2014 and 2017, with the majority of the increase to be delivered in the next two years. The miner expects to achieve this by expanding production at existing mines and securing productivity gains. The costs savings works both ways for RIO – helping to alleviate margin pressures in a weak commodity environment and increase earnings leverage to rising commodity prices. For all of our latest australian share tips and trading ideas sign up for FREE 7 Day Trial and gain full access our research files. Read more: http://www.australianstockreport.com.au/share-tips/#ixzz2nKRlceAE
Webjet (WEB) Share To Sell
Webjet (WEB) is an online travel website, specialising in both domestic and international online flight bookings, accommodation, car rental, and insurance. WEB is Australia’s largest independent online travel site, competing mainly with companies offering similar leisure-related services, such as Jetset (JET), Flight Centre (FLT), Wotif.com (WTF), Expedia, and Bestflights.com.au. Earlier this year, the company acquired rival Zuji and launched business-to-business hotel aggregation platform, Lots of Hotels, for the Middle Eastern and African markets. The company derives its revenue primarily through booking charges and fees, with its main customers being the general public and tourists. Weak FY13 results WEB’s FY13 results weren’t that impressive for a company that traditionally trades on a high P/E multiple. Revenue of $66.5 million represented a rise of 15% on the prior year’s result. Underlying net profit was only 5.6% higher on FY12’s result, missing previous guidance of 15% growth. EBIT margin contracted 10 basis points to 32.4%, continuing a worrying trend where profit margins have fallen for three straight years. Business momentum is also heading in a negative direction, with Total Transaction Value (TTV) and flight booking volumes both declining from 1H12 to 1H13. Outlook WEB trades on a forward P/E of 13.5x, which is a discount to other online service providers, including closest rival, Flight Centre (FLT). The trend of shrinking profit margins is a worry, suggesting that WEB is losing market share to FLT and not getting enough return for each dollar spent on marketing and advertising. WEB followed up its disappointing results by offering relatively subdued guidance earlier this month. It warned that FY14 EBITDA was likely to be unchanged from a year earlier, at $21.5 million. The group admitted that the Australian market had been flat over the past year, but that it would still push on with plans to spend $3 million on marketing and technology, which was expected to weigh on the bottom line. This is a big worry given how important Australia is to WEB’s business. Moreover, the increased marketing and ad spend comes on top of the resources needed to integrate Zuji and support the launch of Lots of Hotels. Although the longer-term outlook appears more promising, FY14 is shaping up to be another disappointing year for FLT. The prospect for further margin erosion will be a key factor behind continued share price weakness in our opinion. For all of our latest australian share tips and trading ideas sign up for FREE 7 Day Trial and gain full access our research files.
Share To Buy – Bank Of Queensland (BOQ)
Bank of Queensland (BOQ) is a financial institution, with services spanning retail and commercial banking, wealth management, insurance and equipment finance. As its name implies, BOQ predominantly caters to the Queensland market but has branches throughout Australia. FY13 results Much of BOQ’s recent strong share price performance has come on the back of its FY13 results. Cash profit surged to $250.9 million, from $30.6 million a year earlier. The bottom line turnaround was driven by a major decline in impairment charges from $401 million in FY12 to $112 million in FY13. This reflected a dramatic improvement in asset quality (by exiting weak and impaired assets). Net interest margin (NIM) grew from 1.65% to 1.7%, continuing a positive trend from FY09 when NIM was 1.6%. FY13’s NIM growth came on the back of a more favourable funding mix, which has also positioned BOQ to boost lending volumes in what remains a highly competitive mortgage market. There was also good cost control, with the cost-to-income ratio falling to 44.3%. This exceeded the initial guidance of 45% due to the successful implementation of efficiency and effectiveness programs. Outlook Management has targeted return on tangible equity (ROTE) of 13%+ by FY15. FY13 ROTE was 11.9%, well in excess of the ~10% initial guidance. Due to a combination of falling impairments, rising net interest income and disciplined cost control, we think the 15% ROE target will be achieved by management. The one area of concern was the retail lending growth of 0.6x system growth during FY13, this below the 1.2x target aimed for by FY15. Yet, as we mentioned before, the rise in NIM and dramatically improved asset mix gives the group flexibility to boost lending volumes ahead of FY15. The FY13 result was robust in nearly all areas, and expectations for a continuation of this momentum into FY14 are likely to provide a further boost to BOQ’s share price. For all of our latest share tips and trading ideas sign up for FREE 7 Day Trial and gain full access our research files.
Buy, Sell, Hold Recommendations – Herald Sun 24/11/2013
As featured in the Herald Sun on November 24th 2013, here are the latest buy, sell and hold recommendations from Geoff Saffer Equity Analyst & Educational Facilitator at the Australian Stock Report. Geoff has over 10 years’ experience researching and analysing Australian shares, with a passion for fundamental analysis and specialty in identifying undervalued companies – particularly at the smaller end of the market. Buys Challenger Limited (CGF) – CGF’s profit will drop in FY14, but super low P/E, demand for annuities and rebounding stockmarket make it good value. Ingenia Group (INA) – Retirement property manager is a turnaround play after exiting loss-making US business and cleaning up its balance sheet. Expect strong growth in next two years. Holds Woodside Petroleum (WPL) – Most recent quarter saw higher production offset by lower prices. Prospects for Browse project improving, but would like to see more strength in LNG prices. Crown Resorts (CWN) – Record gambling revenue in Macau driving Macau JV’s fortunes. Sydney Crown also offers huge upside but hype has pushed stock past value levels. Sells UGL Limited (UGL) – Property services demerger could unlock value, but otherwise under pressure from shrinking margins, weakening order book and struggling Engineering division. PanAust Limited (PNA) – Cash costs on the rise and metals prices don’t look headed higher. Further weakness in operating cash flow could see dividend cut. For all of our latest share tips and trading ideas sign up for FREE 7 Day Trial and gain full access our research files.
Newcrest Mining Limited – Sell Stock
Newcrest Mining (NCM) is an Australian gold producer, with operations in Australia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Fiji and West Africa. The group’s flagship mine is PNG-based, Lihir, with the other offshore operations being Gosowong in Indonesia, Hidden Valley (50%-owned) in PNG and Bonriko in Ivory Coast. NSW-based Cadia Valley and WA-based Telfer make up the company’s domestic operations. Gold weakness Although gold prices have stabilised in recent months, gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) have continued to shed their bullion holdings, highlighting weak investment demand for the yellow metal. Last Friday night’s better-than-expected US jobs report has increased the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve bringing the forward the date it begins tapering stimulus to December. The market response will likely be a rise in US bond yields and the US dollar, both of which are negative for gold. This reduces the incentive for ETFs to hold bullion and if they continue to sell their holdings – which we expect they will - gold prices are likely to head south. Outlook NCM’s cash costs for the September quarter were $1093 an ounce (oz), whilst the average realised gold price was $1442/oz. With gold prices recently trading around $1285/oz that implies NCM’s cash margin has shrunk by approximately 44% since the end of the quarter, to $192. It also means that Lihir, with a cash cost of $1152/oz, Telfer, with a cash cost of $1296/oz and Bonriko, with a cash cost of $1889/oz, have either become uneconomical or are very close to it. The balance sheet worsened considerably in FY13, with the net debt to equity ratio soaring from 14% to 41%. High costs and falling gold prices are hammering the group’s cash flows, limiting its options to arrest the balance sheet deterioration. This increases the odds of a capital raising. NCM stuck to its FY14 production guidance of 2.0 – 2.3 million ounces. Unfortunately, it is mining lower grade ore from its gold mines, as evidenced by the September quarter production report. A repeat performance in subsequent quarters increases the risk of missing production guidance. Amidst all these concerns, we think there is enough bad news to send NCM shares even lower from current levels. For all of our latest australian sell shares and trading ideas sign up for FREE 7 Day Trial and gain full access our research files.
WPL Woodside Petroleum – Share Tip
Woodside Petroleum (WPL) is Australia’s largest oil and gas explorer and producer. WPL operates the $27 billion North West Shelf (NWS) Venture in offshore WA, which produces around 40% of Australia’s oil and gas. The company also has several key LNG projects, which include, Pluto (WA), Browse (WA) and Sunrise (East Timor). The Pluto project is up and running, but the Browse basis LNG project has been delayed for a period of the two years. Key Points Quarterly Report: WPL reported strong production of 21.9 mmboe for the 3Q13, which was up 9.5% quarter on quarter, the result was mainly due to increased production from the North West Shelf following planned maintenance shutdowns in 2Q13 Sales volumes of 20.9 mmboe up 33.5% on 2Q13 Revenue came in flat at US$1.34 billion, with the higher sales offset by slightly lower realised average prices Leviathan and Browse
>> The groups growth profile has been questioned over the past few years, with issues and delays over two potential projects, Browse LNG project in WA and the Leviathan fields located offshore Israel. However a number of key issues in these projects have been alleviated of late. >> The Browse project which was shelved early in the year looks to be back on the table. WPL and its Joint Venture partners have decided to take USE floating LNG technically to commercialise the Browse gas fields. >> While no costing has been done for the new concept, we would expect it to be less capital intensive than its previous options. >> The Leviathan gas fields is one of the world’s largest off shore gas finds of the past decade. >> WPL successfully bid for a 30% stake in project almost 12 months ago, but the deal is yet to be finalised, with the Israeli government trying to set gas reservation on the field. >> The Israel Supreme Court has recently dismissed the right to do this which paves the way for WPL to proceed with its offer.
Share To Buy Telstra Limited (TLS)
Telstra Corporation Limited (TLS) is a full service domestic and international telecommunications provider and is without question the dominant telco in Australia. The company provides telephone exchange lines to homes and businesses, supplying local, long distance and international telephone calls and supplying mobile telecommunications services. TLS also provides data, internet, on-line services and directory services. TLS has five key business segments:
>> Telstra Consumer and Country Wide, which is responsible for servicing metropolitan, regional, rural and remote parts of Australia with a full range of products and services. >> Telstra Wholesale, which provides a wide range of wholesale products and services to the Australian domestic market. >> Telstra Business is responsible for serving the unique needs of Australia’s small to medium enterprises (SMEs). >> Telstra Enterprise and Government unit is responsible for providing innovative Information and Communications Technology (ICT) solutions to large corporate and government customers in Australia and New Zealand. >> Other, which includes all division that are not covered above and includes; Telstra Operations, Sensis and Telstra International Group. >> Revenue over the year grew by 1.9% to $26 billion. >> Net profit for the year came in at $3.9 billion a 12.9% increase on the prior year’s result. The profit increase was ahead of consensus estimates of $3.69 billion. >> The strong results continue to be driven by a lead mobile growth with revenue rising by six per cent to $9.2 billion. >> The mobile division added 1.3 million subscribers for the year, which is likely the result of glitch-plagued Vodafone Australia whose network infrastructure has become overstretched. >> Telstra continued to build momentum in its Network Applications and Services (NAS) portfolio, with revenue increasing 17.7% for the year. >> The group returned a dividend of 28 cents per share fully franked dividend for FY13.
TPG Telecom LTD Buy Share
TPG Telecom Limited (TPM) wholesales bandwidth and other telecommunications services. The company also delivers a full range of telecommunications products and services to home and business consumers through its retail operations. Its network infrastructure includes fixed line, fibre and wireless services connecting voice customers with call collection areas throughout Australia and data and internet customers with more than 350 exchange areas. Key Points FY13 Results impress:
>> Revenue was $725 million a 9% increase on the prior year’s result >> Underlying profit grew by 31% over the year to $149 million, this translating to an impressive 340 basis point expansion in the NPAT margin >> The strong result was on the back of organic growth in its broadband and mobile subscriber base’s >> The group paid total dividends of 7.5 cents a share fully franked, an increase of 36% on FY12 >> Free cash flow grew to $175 million, a 17% increase over the year. The group used $107 million of this excess cash to pay down its debt >> TPM’s net debt is now sits at $16 million, equating to net debt to equity of only 2%
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Nov 2014 - Nov 2016
Our short-term focused Trading Report returned 30.03%, outperforming the ASX/200 Accumulation Index by 23.58%*
DISCLAIMER: *Performance is derived from recommendations provided by Australian Stock Report’s Trading Report, opened on or after date of acquisition in Nov 2014 *Return figures are gross returns and do not take into account fees or brokerage costs. *Returns are calculated based on a $50,000 hypothetical portfolio, risking 2% of the overall portfolio balance ($1,000) as a starting point for each trade. *Due to slippage and gapping, losses can sometimes exceed $1,000 on an individual trade. *Opening and closing prices for trades (and therefore the prices used for determining aggregate profit/loss) will be those published on the Australian Stock Report website and will be determined by the price at which they could realistically be executed in the market at the time the recommendation is published. *ASX 200 Accumulation Index Return is calculated based upon the price of the index at the start of the session on the day the first ASX 200 trade was placed, i.e. 24.11.2015
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