Australian Stock Report presents the 2012  Portfolio Review.

Have you ever wanted to know what the “must-have” stocks are that should be in your portfolio? Do you know what 2012 has in store for the markets? Our Panel Does! Come and hear them present a review of your portfolio!

Here’s how the Portfolio Review works: List 5 stocks from your portfolio, or in which you are thinking of investing. Our panel of experts will tally the requests and select the 12 most popular stocks (and a few of their own) to thoroughly analyse and present their results live at the Review. The experts will then host a Q & A session to discuss current market valuations, trends, and their expectations for local and international markets in 2012.

Even if you don’t get all of your picks reviewed, you’ll get the benefit of comprehensive research on no less than 12 of the most interesting stocks on the Australian share market for 2012: What to buy, what to hold, and what to get rid of!

The Panel consists of:

Geoff Saffer
Head of Corporate Research
Australian Stock Report
Fundamental Analysis

Carl Capolingua
Head of Education
Australian Stock Report
Technical Analysis

Kel Butcher
Professional Trader, Author, Trading Coach
World Markets

Your 2012 Portfolio Review Ticket Includes:

>> 4Gb USB containng all of the researcg from the presentations
>> a copy of Kel Butchers’ latest book
>> sumptuous buffet lunch
>> refreshments on arrivals

Portfoio Review Locations and Dates:

Sydney - Saturday, February 18, 2012 @ Sir Stamford at Circular Quay, 93 Macquarie Street.

Registrations: 8:30 AM, Duration: 9:00 AM – 13:30 PM. Click now to reserve your seat.

Melbourne - Saturday, February 25, 2012 @ Crowne Plaza, 1-5 Spencer Street.

Registrations: 8:30 AM, Duration: 9:00 AM – 13:30 PM. Click now to reserve your seat.

Brisbane - Saturday, March 3, 2012 @ Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre, cnr Merivale & Glenelg Streets.

Registrations: 8:30 AM, Duration: 9:00 AM – 13:30 PM. Click now to reserve your seat.

Perth - Saturday, March 10, 2012 @ The Studio Room, Level 2, Burswood Convention Centre
Bolton Ave & Great Eastern Hwy.

Registrations: 8:30 AM, Duration: 9:00 AM – 13:30 PM. Click now to reserve your seat.

Tickets for the Portfolio Review are only $44 (single) of $66 (double). Click now to learn more about this must attend event.

James Hardie Industries (ASX:JHX) is a leading international building materials group that produces a wide range of fibre cement building materials used in the exterior and interior of residential and commercial buildings.

The company is also the largest seller of home siding (imitation wood) in the US, and produces fibre cement in the US, Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines.

Approximately 80% of JHX’s sales come from the housing industry, and the majority of this exposure is via the US housing market.

Although the US property crash has been a millstone on JHX, recent evidence suggests the market may have turned the corner.

JHX focus on efficiency and market share gains has placed it in an advantageous position to benefit from increased US housing activity.

US housing recovery

Although the US housing sector has been in a well established decline for much of the past five years, recent evidence is pointing to a long-awaited recovery.

Among the relevant housing indicators for James Hardie are housing starts and building permits.

Housing starts measure the number of new monthly building constructions, whilst building permits are more of a leading indicator in that they measure the number of new monthly residential building permits.

Since May 2011, both these indicators have been steadily rising in a sign Americans are beginning to take advantage of the country’s record low interest rates.

Furthermore, we see this momentum continuing due to the slowly strengthening US jobs market and the Federal Reserve’s pledge to maintain low interest rates until the end of 2014.

Operating results

In late November, JHX reported a 1Q12 net operating profit of US$41.2 million, which was double its result in 1Q11.

Despite reporting low demand, James Hardie was able to achieve its profit on the back of operational improvements such as a reduction in fixed costs, as well as an increased share of the fibre cement market.

This increased market share, positions JHX well in the event of an acceleration of the US housing recovery.

Outlook

JHX forecast FY12 net operating profit of US$126 – US$140 million.  Although management was cautious about the outlook for US housing, recent data points to a noticeable pickup in this industry.

With US employment inching higher, housing affordability high and the Fed committed to a record low interest rate environment, there are enough incentives to drive continued improvement in residential construction activity.

We at Australian Stock Report believe that a focus on cost control and increasing market share has placed JHX in a strong position to leverage off any US housing recovery.

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We launched our Speculative Report in mid-December 2011 to cater for traders looking to leverage small stocks to make big gains.

One of the unique features of the report is our Movers & Shakers page, which scans the market for the best short-term trading opportunities.

The page has been a great success, picking many of the market’s best performing micro-cap stocks over the last six weeks. Below is a list of 5 of the best stocks we have unearthed:

COMPANY: Peninsula Energy (PEN) is a small uranium developer, with projects in US, South Africa and Fiji. The company recently completed studies that confirmed the viability of two of its projects in Wyoming USA.

TRADE: We unearthed PEN in the report on the 20th of December when its share price was just 2.9 cents and the company had a market cap of only $62 million.

RESULT: PEN has since risen 83% to its last price of 5.3 cents.

COMPANY: Alliance Resources (AGS) is a small diversified exploration company, although its main focus is on uranium through its stake in the Four Mile uranium project in SA. The project has been subject to litigation regarding native title, and AGS shares have rallied strongly in the last six weeks after revealing litigation has been adjourned.

TRADE: We unearthed AGS in the report on 14th of December when it was trading at 21 cents with a market cap of $68 million.

RESULT: AGS has risen 71% since then to trade at 36 cents.

COMPANY: ZYL Limited (ZYL) is a small metallurgical coal explorer, working on a few coal projects in South Africa. In mid-December – the day we featured the stock in the report – ZYL advised the market that it had attracted some takeover interest and had hired Macquarie as its financial adviser.

TRADE: We unearthed ZYL in the report on 14th of December when it was trading at 14.5 cents and had a market cap of $60 million.

RESULT: ZYL has since risen 66% to 24 cents.

COMPANY: African Iron (AKI) is an emerging iron ore player, developing an iron ore mine in the Republic of Congo that is scheduled to start significant production next year. The company received a takeover offer earlier this month from South African miner Exxaro, which has bid up to 57 cents a share.

TRADE: We unearthed AKI in the report on 16th of December, when it was trading at 34 cents and had a market cap of $170 million.

RESULT: AKI has since risen 65% to 56 cents per share.

COMPANY: Golden Rim Resources (GMR) is small gold and copper explorer, operating in West Africa. The company has recently released drilling results from its exploration in Burkina Faso, which showed very high-grade intercepts.

TRADE: We unearthed GMR in the report on 20th of December, when its share price was just 10.5c and the company had a market cap of only $38 million.

RESULT: GMR has since risen 62% to its last price of 17 cents.

Our Speculative Report currently has an exclusive offer, reveive a BONUS 3 MONTHS FREE when you sign up for 12 months. Click to Register Your Interest & Receive Complimentary Reports Now!

Mirabela Nickel (ASX:MBN) is a mining company focused on the production and sale of nickel concentrate.

The miner’s key asset is the Santa Rita nickel operation in Bahia, Brazil.

MBN achieved its production ramp up goals in 2011, successfully upgrading the Santa Rita’s plant capacity to 7.2Mtpa of ore milled, from 4.6Mtpa in 2010.

However the ramp up was also accompanied by rising cash costs, which detracted significantly from an otherwise solid set of December 2011 quarter production numbers.

Costly cash

Mirabela Nickel announced its December quarter production report today.

Nickel output climbed 9% from the previous quarter, helping MBN to meet its 2011 production target of 15,854 tonnes.

However the production numbers were overshadowed by a disappointing rise in cash costs.

Cash costs jumped 11% on the quarter to US$7.42, as the higher output was accompanied by higher plant costs and lower productivity.

Additionally, mining costs rose amid increased expenses relating to drilling activity.

The ramp up in quarterly production was thus poorly executed due to the company’s own efficiencies as well as industry cost pressures.

Risk on

Another concerning aspect of the production release was the almost 50% fall in MBN’s cash holdings from the prior quarter.

A significant part of that outflow was due to the closing out of the company’s nickel and copper hedges.

The lower cash balance in addition to a new US$50 million debt facility entered into by a Brazilian subsidiary, raises MBN’s risk profile in a period of economic uncertainty.

Outlook

MBN has raised its 2012 production guidance, targeting 20,000 – 22,000 tonnes of nickel output.

As mentioned, however, greater output is not necessarily a good thing when it is accompanied by higher cash costs.

Mirabela Nickel has commenced a cost reduction program, which aims to lower cash costs towards US$6/lb by the end of the year. However that is largely dependent on the proper implementation of the program.

Although a return to steady state production may help, cost reductions will also be linked to the favourable renegotiation of MBN’s major contracts.

Having recently closed out of its nickel hedges, MBN is now fully exposed to the movement in commodity prices.

Unfortunately, there is also considerable uncertainty surrounding nickel prices, with brokers Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs recently downgrading their forecasts amid concerns about oversupply.

We at Australian Stock Report believe these headwinds are likely to weigh on MBN’s share price for a while yet.

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QR National (ASX:QRN) is Australia’s largest rail freight operator and the world’s largest rail transporter of coal from mine to port for export markets.

QRN is a provider of specialist rail engineering, construction and maintenance services in Australia, operating a network of five terminals and more than 40 depots across five states.

The company not only transports minerals but agricultural goods, and is a significant transporter of grain.

Since being privatised by the Queensland government in November 2010, QRN has been a stock to watch with a large percentage of retail shareholders.

QRN has faced some major headwinds since listing, principally the early-2011 flooding and cyclone in that state.

However, the company proved its resilience by managing to record a healthy FY11 underlying profit despite the impact to coal volumes from the floods.

The expansion into the WA and NSW markets also positions the company well for future growth.

Profit shines despite floods

QRN delivered an FY11 net profit of $349.5 million, which compared to a $36.8 million loss a year earlier when it was still owned by the Queensland government.

QR National faced a number of difficulties last year due to the Queensland floods, yet still managed an 11% lift in revenue and a 35% rise in underlying EBIT.

The growth in earnings was achieved due to the company’s focus on cost management and better revenue quality (more customer-focussed contracts).

With a net gearing ratio of less than 10% at the end of FY11, QRN’s balance sheet was in strong enough shape financially to pursue growth initiatives.

Volumes down, but significant growth potential

The Queensland floods had a big impact on QRN’s coal haulage volumes, and the company is yet to fully recover from the damage.

The slow recovery in Queensland coal volumes necessitates an ongoing focus on cost initiatives as well as pursuing new growth opportunities.

The company has recognised the importance of that second point, and is looking to expand its presence in the NSW Hunter Valley coal region and WA’s lucrative iron ore market.

QRN recently signed an iron ore haulage contract with the Karara Iron Ore Project, which is expected to deliver $900 million in additional revenue over the next ten years.

That is not say QRN has forgotten its core Queensland market.  Asciano and QRN recently signed a multi-year deal with Rio Tinto to haul millions of tonnes of coal from its Queensland mines.

Importantly, this deal will leverage QRN’s $1.1 billion project to expand the Goonyella-Abbot Point rail network link.

Outlook

QRN’s management has thus far proven its ability to grow earnings in periods of turbulence.

A focus on improving operational efficiency paid dividends for the company in FY11, and given the slow recovery in Queensland coal haulage, we would look for similar diligence this year.

Along with cost initiatives, QRN is positioning itself for growth via the Goonyella-Abbot Point project and its expansion into the WA and NSW mining industries.

In our view, the positive momentum will translate into more near-term growth for QRN.

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Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX:PDN) primarily explores for uranium in Australia and Southern Africa.

Shares in energy stock Paladin Energy have soared today after the company announced a 47% increase in first quarter production compared to the previous quarter.

PDN also said that spot price for uranium is beginning to show signs of strengthening as new demand emerges.

Paladin also re-affirmed its full year production target and earnings guidance, making it one of the days hot stocks.

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Kagara (ASX:KZL) is a copper, zinc-lead and nickel miner, with operations in North Queensland and WA. It has four operational hubs in North Queensland – Mungana, Mt. Garnet, Balcooma and Thalanga.

KZL’s North Queensland mines supply ore to three treatment facilities in Mt. Garnet (copper and polymetallic) and Thalanga (polymetallic).

A strategic review determined KZL’s nickel operations at Lounge Lizard, WA to be non-core, and so the group has put the assets up for sale.

The company faced major operational issues in FY11, which culminated in a $32.2 million loss.

An uncertain outlook for commodities has come at a poor time for Kagara, with its recently announced capital raising highlighting potential cash problems at the company.

Although KZL recently unveiled a five year turnaround strategy, we feel there are significant near-term headwinds that are likely to keep its share price under pressure.

Operational issues

KZL’s September quarter activities report revealed a 3% fall in copper output from the June quarter. However that was balanced by a 13% rise in zinc output.

Cash costs for both commodities fell on the quarter, reflecting the company’s focus on protecting its margins in the face of declining prices.

The quarterly output result followed a hugely disappointing FY11, which was characterised by a $32.2 million loss (compared to a $3.2 million profit in FY10).

The loss came on the back of a $48.5 million write-down of KZL’s Mt. Garnet and Mungana mines (Mungana Mines: MUX is 61.9% owned by KZL).

Production over the year was impacted by a prolonged wet season.  This was accompanied by rising cash costs over the year, which came about due to lower zinc output and adverse FX movements.

Uncertain commodities outlook

Europe’s debt crisis coupled with signs of a slowdown in Chinese economic activity has clouded the outlook for KZL’s key commodities – copper and zinc.

Copper has slumped around 17% from the highs it created in July, whilst zinc has suffered similar falls amid persistent concerns about global oversupply.

Copper is usually seen as an economic barometer, and its recent weakness suggests diminishing prospects for global growth.

Although longer-term we expect stronger demand for the red metal, we see more weakness in the near-term as Europe struggles to end its debt crisis.

Cap raising highlights problems

Kagara’s problems ultimately led to a $25 million capital raising (completed today), which it said was to finalise the acquisition of the Einasleigh Copper Deposit at Mt. Garnet.

Einasleigh was bought from Copper Strike (CSE) for $16 million, as part of KZL’s push to ramp up production in the next five years.

The announcement of the raising was surprising considering it came less than three months after KZL unveiled its five year turnaround strategy.

The capital raising suggests KZL is facing cash problems, with the group in a precarious position as it looks to significantly increase exploration activities in North Queensland.

Worryingly, this leaves KZL vulnerable to continued declines in copper prices and any unforseen production delays.

Outlook

KZL has been hit hard in recent times due to operational issues at its mines.  A prolonged wet season led to production delays and write-downs at Mt. Garnet and Mungana, which was reflected in a massive loss for FY11.

Although KZL is to embark on a five year turnaround strategy, it has set itself lofty exploration and production goals. The group aims to produce 30,000tpa of copper by FY15 (FY11: 22,530t) and 71,000tpa of zinc by FY14 (FY11: 40,125t).

KZL’s immediate focus, however, is on ensuring it has enough cash to cover near-term development expenses.

The recently completed capital raising is a worrying sign, and suggests KZL has little room for error in a very uncertain global economy.

A worsening of Europe’s debt crisis could see copper prices come under further selling pressure, thus impacting KZL’s margins.

As a result, we feel there is further near-term weakness in store for KZL’s share price.

KZL’s woes have seen it being a major mover on the ASX, it has plummet more than 60% in 2011.

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Australian Stock Report is pround to launch our Speculative Report. The Spec Report hopes to uncover the best hidden gems the Australian market has to offer.

Small-cap stocks tend to deliver higher returns than blue chips over the long-run, a reflection that higher risk investments often provide higher returns.

As small stocks don’t attract as much attention as stocks like the big banks, BHP or Telstra there is greater opportunities to find undervalued or mispriced companies.

If you invest in small-caps without conducting proper research, then you might as well be throwing darts at the proverbial dartboard.

Investing in small-caps can be highly rewarding and lucrative to those well-informed investors who have put in the effort, sifting through a lot of earth to find the next diamond in the rough.

Our Speculative Report is your gateway to finding the next big thing to supercharge your investment returns.

Included in the Speculative Report:

» Movers & Shakers – our unique day-trading scan will show active traders which speculative stocks are the hottest, three times a day!

» Speccy Round-up – includes the latest market news and themes and updates on the report’s recommendations

» The Next Big Thing – including a summary of the market, small-cap space, detailed coverage of the hottest sectors and stocks

» Specific Recommendations – we will tell you which stocks to buy, when to buy them and what price to pay

Australian Stock Report invites you to register for a FREE Speculative Recommendations, click here, you have nothing to lose!

As a special introductory offer subscribe to the Speculative Report for 12 months before 23/12/2011 and receive  a FREE bonus 3 months!

Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL) develops, manufactures, and distributes gaming machines and systems in Australia, New Zealand, the Americas, Asia Pacific, South Africa and Europe.

ALL is the largest gaming machine company in Australia and the world’s second-largest slot machine maker.

The company has been a basket case over the past few years amid weak consumer spending and adverse FX movements, as well as industry and operational problems.

Although ALL’s 1H11 profit was down sharply on-year, certain elements of the earnings release indicate the company is better placed to leverage off a cyclical rebound in its core markets – Australia and the US.

Gambling on weak 1H11

Aristocrat Leisure reported a 1H11 net profit of $24.9 million, which was down 49.5% from 1H10.  On a normalised basis, earnings were down 32% (1H10’s profit was inflated by a one-off gain on an asset sale). An interim dividend of 2.5 cents was declared.

The profit was impacted mostly by higher net interest costs, adverse FX movements and an 8.8% fall in revenue to $310.6 million.

Sales weakened amid tough trading conditions in North America – ALL’s biggest segment.  The division’s EBIT margin also contracted 5.6 basis points due to a higher proportion of second hand sales.

However the Australian operations performed solidly, with revenue there rising 5.5% on-year to $73.4 million.

The launch of the Viridian WS cabinets was well received by customers, driving average selling prices higher and improving margins despite competitive market conditions.

Encouraging outlook

Despite a tough half, ALL confirmed FY11 net profit guidance of 10% – 20% growth on FY10’s $77.2 million.

Although the North American division struggled, there was positive momentum towards the end of the half, with average daily fees increasing due to the rollout of new game titles.

Assuming a continuation of this trend, higher selling prices could be an important driver of earnings in the second half. Also, as legacy products are cycled out, ALL’s margins could see a turnaround due to a more favourable selling mix.

The operating environment is at least showing signs of improvement, with US consumer sentiment having shot higher in recent weeks.

Although market conditions were expected to remain challenging in Australia, Aristocrat Leisure nevertheless forecast a continuation of top line momentum, along with improved selling prices and margins.

Importantly, Aristocrat Leisure’s new product rollout makes it well placed to leverage off a cyclical rebound in both countries.

Market sentiment towards the stock has improved in recent months, and we believe there is further near-term upside to come.

ALL is a defiantly a stock to watch.

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Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd (ASX:SAR) is an Australian mid-tier gold producer based in WA.

The company bought its major assets off Sons of Gwalia back in 2006 – when the latter went bankrupt – and has done well to develop the assets and move from an explorer to a producer.

SAR’s key assets are located in the South Laverton mining district, 120km North-East of famed gold mining town Kalgoorlie, in Western Australia. This includes around 200 granted tenements and applications pending spread over 2,500 square kilometres.

Since purchasing these assets, SAR has spent money exploring the tenements and developing the projects to production.

The company completed a Definitive Feasibility Study on the South Laverton gold project in December 2008 and started producing gold in early 2010.

Ramping up

Having started production in April last year, SAR has achieved strong production quite quickly and established itself as an enticing small producer.

The company produced 111,163 ounces of gold in FY11, its first full year of production, at an average cash cost of $738 an ounce.

SAR has forecast production of around 125,000 ounces in FY12 at costs of around $700-$750 an ounce. So far FY12 is off to a solid start, with the company recently releasing its September quarter Activities Statement. Production of 31,790 ounces at cash cost of $730 was right in light with guidance.

By de-watering some of its flooded pits, SAR hopes to ramp up production to over 160,000 ounces a year by 2015.  Management has proven to be conservative and reliable so far, offering some reassurance in what is a speculative sector.

Saracen Mineral Holdings has managed significant upgrades to its gold resources and reserves, presently standing at around 3,300,000oz and 880,000oz respectively.  Most of the reserves are open-pit, which allows for easier and cheaper mining.

The sizeable resources and potential underground mining pave the way for a long mine life, while the company has extensive exploration potential to upgrade this further.

The hunt for Red October

SAR’s has planned to spend $35 million on exploration activities in FY12, a sizeable budget given the size of the company.

The company recently completed a placement, raising $50.2 million and helping the company to end the September quarter with $60.3 million in net cash and no debt. A share purchase plan and subsequent placement have raised a further $15 million since.

Together with cash generated from production (almost $10 million last quarter), SAR will not need to raise significant fresh capital to fund this.

Much of SAR’s exploration efforts will be in exploring its Red October project. The company expects to have completed dewatering the pits shortly, to be followed by underground development work.

Previous drilling results have confirmed the continuity of ore body at Red October and further exploration efforts could lead to significant resource upgrades relatively quickly.

Production from Red October is expected to commence in FY12, but potential major exploration success could provide a major share catalyst before then.

Outlook

SAR only started gold production just over 18 months ago but is already generating output of around 125,000 ounces a year.

Incremental production upgrades could come in the next few years, but the significant upside potential comes from the development of its Red October operation.

While SAR offers significant exploration upside, its existing production provides extra protection, and suggests that the market could re-rate the stock and push SAR shares much higher than current levels.

SAR is a defiantly a stock to watch.

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