Mineral Deposits (ASX:MDL) is an exploration and development company, focussing primarily on the Grande Cote Minerals Sands Project in Senegal.

Grande Cote is a world class ore body that extends more than 100 kilometres and boasts high quality zircon and ilmenite.

Growing demand for mineral sands means production from Grande Cote is likely to occur in a period of rising prices, boding well for future profitability.

The market has acknowledged this, and as a result MDL has been one of the hot stocks in recent times.

Although capex costs at the project are expected to be significant, MDL’s cash balance and JV with Eramet puts it in a good position to meet funding requirements.

Magnificent Mineral Sands

The mineral sands industry is expected to boom in coming years due to a widening supply deficit.

Global zircon supply is forecast to shrink over the next decade, which will coincide with soaring demand from high growth countries such as China.

Zircon demand is driven predominantly by its use in ceramics. With China modernising its economy, the demand for ceramics, such as tiles, is expected to surge.

This is likely to drive significant zircon price growth, which will benefit MDL as it begins production in 2013.

The supply deficit will take time to narrow given the more than seven years required to bring projects from exploration to commissioning.

Titanium is anticipated to follow a similar path to zircon, in that demand is likely to be fuelled from its use in paint, plastics and paper – key ingredients for China’s growing economy.

Tizir is born

On 28 July the group formed a 50/50 JV with French-based miner, Eramet, known as Tizir Limited.

Under the JV, Mineral Deposits will contribute its 90% interest in Grande Cote (Senegal’s government owns the other 10%), with Eramet contributing its Tyssedal titanium and iron plant in Norway, along with $30 million in cash.

The JV was crucial for MDL as it secures off-take for the majority of Grande Cote’s ilmenite. The ilmenite will be used in the production of titanium feedstock at the Tyssedal plant.

The agreement also secures additional titanium supply for Tyssedal, giving it the capacity to meet growing demand from pigment producers.

Therefore it appears the JV is a win/win for both companies.

Grande Cote is grand

The Grande Cote project is strategically placed in Senegal, located not too far from the Dakar coast. This reduces the time it will take to transport the minerals from the mine separation plant to the port for shipment.

The lack of significant vegetation and overburden also allows for an efficient processing of the mined ore.

Thus when production begins MDL will be operating towards the lower end of its cost curve, giving it a significant competitive advantage.

Grande Cote has the potential to be a Tier 1 asset, with an operating mine life of 25+ years, and expected annual production of 85,000 tonnes of zircon and 575,000 tonnes of ilmenite.

These output estimates will amount to approximately 7% of global supply, putting MDL on track to become one of the world’s bigger producers.

Cash is king

MDL is in sound financial shape, having secured US$136.2 million in a capital raising in June. The raising brought the group’s cash balance at the end of June to US$173.3 million.

Moreover, the company has no external borrowings.

Although Grande Cote requires approximately US$516 million in capex requirements, Mineral Deposits’ array of financing options, including the contribution from Eramet, will help ensure sufficient funding for the project.

Outlook

Mineral sands producers stand to reap significant benefits from China’s voracious demand for resources.

The supply deficit is expected to linger for a while yet, putting MDL in line to achieve major price increases at the same time it begins production.

Grande Cote appears to be a long-life, low-cost asset for MDL, thus giving it a competitive advantage in the mineral sands industry.

Importantly, the company is in sound shape with cash in the bank, no external debt, and a JV with Eramet that has secured off-take for its ilmenite.

Therefore the future appears bright for MDL, and it will be one of the stocks to watch in coming months.

Receive FREE Trading Recommendations for the next 7 Days, Click Here!

Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) is a world leader in the development, manufacture and commercialisation of biologic products in the broad field of regenerative medicine.

MSB has the worldwide exclusive rights to a series of patents and technologies developed over more than 10 years relating to the identification, extraction, culture and uses of adult Mesenchymal Precursor Cells (MPCs).

MSB’s stock has been one of the hot stocks since the start of the year on market excitement over the therapeutic power of MPCs.

A unique business

The commercialisation of MPCs allows adult stem cells to be extracted from the bone marrow of donors, grown into therapeutic quantities and administered to non-related patients.

MSB’s lead products will target cardiovascular conditions, diabetes, inflammatory conditions of lungs and joints, eye diseases, bone marrow cancers, bone fractures, cartilage degeneration and musculoskeletal conditions.

The company aims to generate a series of high margin, off-the-shelf adult stem cell products that are obtained from a single donor, commercially expanded and frozen, and subsequently used in potentially thousands of unrelated, or allogeneic, recipients at the time and place of need.

Bone marrow approval

Mesoblast recently received approval from US authorities to begin an advanced trial of a treatment that could boost the number of bone marrow transplants for patients who cannot find a matched donor.

Following the approval, MSB has commenced the Phase III trial for bone marrow regeneration in patients with blood cancers.

MSB aims to produce a product that can be used in bone marrow transplants where a perfectly matched donor cannot be found.

Hearty hopes

Another key driver for MSB will be the results of its Phase II congestive heart failure trials in November.

Clinical results have thus far been encouraging, and if the full results turn out to be positive, MSB is likely to request a Phase III trial from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

We believe a positive Phase II result will help deliver a significant jolt to MSB’s share price, as it moves the group closer to receiving regulatory approval to market its product.

Moreover, given the large number of reported heart problems in the US, Phase III approval can open up a huge market for MSB.

The Lonza and short of it

On 27 September, MSB announced an alliance with Swiss-based Lonza Group for the clinical and commercial production of its MPC product.

Under the deal, Lonza will supply MSB’s product requirements, in return for MSB having exclusive access to Lonza’s Cell Therapy facilities in Singapore.

The alliance is a critical plank in Mewsoblast’s strategy to market its product, as it creates certainty in the ability of the group to manufacture its MPCs.

Another interesting aspect of the alliance was Lonza using its intellectual property to help lower MSB’s manufacturing costs.

This would be in keeping with MSB’s aims to generate higher margin products, and would also provide it with the flexibility to develop new technologies.

Looking ahead

Whilst market excitement grows surrounding the therapeutic potential of MPCs, MSB has turned heads with its unique product innovation.

With regulatory approvals continuing to roll in and a global manufacturing alliance locked in, MSB is in a good position to bring its MPC technology to market.

The bone marrow product could be the company’s first revenue generating biologic therapy in the US and Europe.

MSB has huge revenue potential and exclusive rights to a series of patents and technologies relating to MPCs.

Furthermore, a successful outcome for MSB’s Phase II congestive heart failure trial could make MSB one of the stocks to watch in coming weeks.

Receive FREE Trading Recommendations for the next 7 Days, Click Here!

Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) explores and develops mineral resources in the highly prospective Kimberley region.

NST is an emerging gold producer and explorer with a market capitalisation of around $180 million.

Its main project is the Paulsens gold mine which it purchased for $40 million.

The miner expects to release a resource upgrade later this month and a new mine plan for Paulsens this year.

NST recently acquired the 668,000 ounce (oz) Ashburton Gold Project which is close to the Paulsens mine.

Precious metal speed hump

We saw gold and silver futures slide recently as investors reacted to hikes in margin requirements for the contracts.

The CME Group raised margin requirements for both initial and existing positions in gold, copper and silver.

Margins are money investors must put up to be able to trade and hold futures contracts.

Gold lost more than US$100/oz on the announcement, printing a low of around US$1533/oz.

However, gold prices have since recovered from that low and are currently hanging at around US$1665/oz.

The fact of the matter is, the underlying fundamentals behind the gold price rally over the past year are still intact and we are likely to see gold continue to rise.

Ashburton acquisition

NST agreed to purchase the Ashburton Gold Project from Sipa Resources which will be paid for via a royalty on future production.

The deal includes 668,000oz resource and the Mt Olympus Gold Mine, which has previously produced 340,000oz.

This puts NST in a prime position to increase production rates, project life and create shareholder wealth through exploration.

Ashburton is a strategic asset for Northern Star Resources as it provides an immediate resource boost to the miner’s resource base.

High grade drilling results from Ashburton announced last week show NST is on track to grow production to 200,000ozpa.

Results

NST recently posted FY11 profit before tax of $20 million. This profit came after deducting $22 million for the acquisition of Paulsens gold mine and $24 million in depreciation and amortisation expenditure.

The result was aided by record production at Paulsens of 87,069oz at $588/oz cash cost.

NST has $30 million in cash on hand as at 27 September 2011 and is on track to exceed calendar 2011 forecast of $40 million surplus cash, 75,000oz production.

A resource upgrade is set for early 2012 with increases in mine life, production and cashflow expected.

The miner repaid the $40 million acquisition of Paulsens in just seven months.

Being unhedged, NST has maximum exposure to the strong gold prices and as a result it was one of the hot stocks over the course of 2011.

With strong cashflow and a robust balance sheet, NST is in a good position to grow.

Outlook

Gold is set to recover after recently suffering a setback from the CME’s decision to raise margin requirements.

NST’s strong financial position leaves it well placed for further acquisitions in line with its objective of building a major mining house.

With the potential for further acquisitions and strong gold prices backing the unhedged miner, we feel NST will be one of the stocks to watch in coming months.

Recent weakness presents an excellent opportunity for fresh entries.

Receive FREE Trading Recommendations for the next 7 Days, Click Here!

AWE Limited (ASX:AWE) is a small oil and gas explorer and producer. The majority of its operations are located in Australia and New Zealand, though the company is becoming increasingly interested in international operations.

The company’s major projects are the onshore Casino gas field (Otway Basin, SA), Cliff Head project (Perth Basin, WA) and the BassGas project (VIC & TAS) and now, the Perth Basin.

Over the last year, AWE has underperformed its peers hurt by a shift in its growth focus from conventional exploration plays to unconventional Australian/US plays. It has also suffered from some reserves downgrades over the past 12 months and it has generally been one of the shares to sell over the period.

Macroeconomic factors have seen significant weakness in the commodities space which has resulted in a huge selloff in resource stocks.

Being an explorer, AWE’s share price is largely driven by sentiment and commodity prices. With both turning negative, we feel AWE has significant downside risk.

Earnings need oiling

Last month, AWE announced a FY11 net loss of $117.6 million, which compared to a $28.9 million loss a year earlier.

Excluding one-off items, the underlying loss was $16.1 million.

Revenue for the period fell 14% to $305 million, with oil production down sharply from the prior year.  However, this was partly offset by stronger oil prices and gas sales.

This revenue was achieved on production of around 6.1mmboe.

AWE forecast FY12 production of 5.0mmboe – 5.5mmboe, and revenue between $270 million and $300 million.

This production forecast is lower than FY11’s production due to a four to six month Bass Gas outage.

It has budgeted $50 million for exploration expenditure and $150 million for development expenditure.

Looking ahead

In its operating budget for FY12, AWE hopes to deliver this revenue at a US$100/bbl brent oil price.

We feel this price is highly optimistic considering the current global economic conditions.

Oil prices are already down to around US$81/bbl with forecasts pointing towards an even lower price.

Just over the past month, brokers have downgraded earnings forecasts for AWE by around 20% to 30%.

During market downturns, investors tend to use share price weakness as an opportunity to buy established producers at significant discounts which leaves the explorers like AWE out to dry.

With risk appetite swiftly disappearing in global markets, we are likely to see energy commodities and subsequently energy stocks like AWE continue to be sold off.  It will be one of the stocks to watch in coming months.

Receive FREE Trading Recommendations for the next 7 Days, Click Here!

Coca-Cola Amatil (ASX:CCL) is an Australasian bottler for US-based The Coca Cola Company.

CCL manufactures, sells and distributes Coca-Cola products, including carbonated soft drinks, mineral waters and other non-alcoholic beverages, plus packaged fruit.

It is also considered among the market’s blue chip stocks.

Over the years, the company has successfully reduced its percentage of sugary carbonated beverages and increased its percentage of non-carbonated beverages, alcoholic beverages and food, in order to diversify its earnings stream.

It has also ventured into the manufacture and distribution of premium beer brands and the premium spirit portfolio of global distributor Maxxium through Pacific Beverages (a JV entity between CCA and SABMiller).

The company delivered a solid first half result last month helped by its strategic product positioning in key markets.

Market ace

CCL stands to benefit from SABMiller’s takeover of Foster’s Group. The move is likely to result in the Pacific Beverages joint venture being dissolved.

CCL management estimates it could book a profit of $200-$300 million on the $305-$380 million sale of Pacific Beverages to SABMiller.

From an EPS perspective, this would be equivalent to a 2%-3% accretion.

CCL will also have the opportunity to acquire some of Foster’s assets at multiples that would be EPS accretive to CCL.

As an overall entity, CCL has grown from strength to strength in recent years. The company’s diversification strategy has been key to this growth, which has included the addition of alcoholic beverages.

Drink up to earnings

CCL last month reported a 27.8% decline in 1H11 net profit to $153.6 million.  An interim dividend of 22 cents was declared.

The result was impacted by an $80.5 million charge related to the restructuring of its SPCA Ardmona division.

Underlying profit rose 5.5% to $234.1 million, with revenue growing 3.3% on-year despite the impact of the recent flooding and consumer caution.

At an AGM in June, CCL had said it was looking to target around 5% growth in underlying profit for the 1H11.

The group has been hurt by the strong Aussie dollar, natural disasters and higher resin prices.

Before currency translation effects, first half profit was expected to be around 6% – 7% higher than the prior year.

CCL was expecting to generate stronger earnings in the second half, but said trading conditions remained uncertain as consumers contended with higher living costs.

Taking into consideration the adverse factors CCL faced during the period, we feel the company delivered a solid result.

Looking ahead

CCL will continue to focus on capitalising on its growing alcoholic beverage and non-carbonated soft drinks market, which are growing owing to modern lifestyle trends.

The company has strong brand awareness, and very stable and highly predictable cashflow compared to its peers.

Coca-Cola Amatil is a defensive company which is protected against inflation as it can pass costs on to customers, who are always willing to spend money on CCL’s famous brands.

With the potential for significant earnings upside from the Foster’s takeover, we feel CCL is in a lucrative position.

Receive FREE Trading Recommendations for the next 7 Days, Click Here!

Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU) is a gold explorer, focused on under-explored gold belts in West Africa.

The group’s Central Ashanti Gold Project has reserves of 3.3 million ounces (Moz) of gold, plus 1.5 Moz Measured and Indicated gold resources and 1.9 Moz Inferred gold resources.

A further 570,000 ounces of indicated gold resources and 1.21 Moz inferred gold resources are held on PRU’s West African projects, Grumesa and Tengrela.

The two projects (Central Ashanti Gold and Tengrela) aim to put out 670,000 oz per year once at full production, which would make PRU Australia’s second-largest listed miner by production after Newcrest Mining.

Further mineral resource and reserves upgrades are planned for later this year.

The miner recently completed its first gold pour during commissioning at the Central Ashanti Gold Project.

Though PRU is currently an explorer, the company is on track to become a producer.

PRU’s aim is to become a 400,000 ounce per annum gold producer from 2013, and the company is on target to achieve this following its consistent over-delivery on targets.

PRU is looking promising owing to its exposure to the under-explored gold belts in West Africa and on strength in gold prices.

Operational update

Following a recent updated economic analysis incorporating a revised life of mine plan (LOMP), PRU has planned throughput optimisation upgrades over the next 18 months.

Under the upgrade, average process throughput will increase from 5.5 Mtpa to 7.9 Mtpa.

Average annual gold production is set to increase by 38% to approximately 265,000oz.

Cash costs will drop to US$551/oz with a base case gold price of US$1,150/oz.

As a result, PRU’s EBITDA over the life of the project has increased by 127% to $1.56 billion.

The early start up of the Central Ashanti Gold Project could push the gold miner’s EBITDA up to US$300 million a year in 2013 and 2014.

Of course, the company will continue to lose money until it starts producing, although it has ample funding facilities to pursue its exploration activities and mine development plans.

Looking ahead

Perseus Mining is turning market heads over its consistent over-delivery on targets. The group is also in good financial stead, with approximately US$100 million cash.

Though PRU’s recent financial results are nothing to write home about, this is typical of a company in its emerging stages.

PRU is looking promising owing to its exposure to the under-explored gold belts in West Africa and on strength in gold prices.

The group will continue to expand its gold resources through rapid exploration of existing tenements and the acquisition of prospective new projects, while developing the Central Ashanti Gold Project.

Gold has gained significant ground this year, consistently reaching fresh record highs.

However, the precious metal saw a pullback late last week but is still in a good position to register further gains.

The metal printed highs of around US$1900 early last week and continues to hold its ground well above US$1800.

Click to Receive FREE Trading Recommendations for the next 7 Days!

Carsales.com Limited (ASX:CRZ) is an Australian business offering online access to automotive classifieds.

The company listed on the ASX at $3.92 in September 2009, up 12% from the $3.50 price at which the shares were issued.

Shortly after listing, CRZ was added to the S&P/ASX 200.

It is the largest consumer website in the country which covers automotive, plant machinery, motorcycle, caravan, marine and display advertising.

CRZ operates 23 individual websites which are all specifically focused on different products.

The company has been a fantastic growth story, benefitting from a migration to online advertising.

It has been one of the hot stocks since bottoming out at $3.79 earlier this month, having surged around 30% in the past few weeks.

Tough conditions, not for Carsales

Whilst most consumer sectors struggle in the face of tough economic conditions, CRZ has continued to prosper.

This is mainly because CRZ has been at the forefront of the continuing migration of advertisers from print to online.

Being proactive in identifying market trends has helped CRZ continue to be a clear leader in market share.

Surprisingly, there has been robust growth in new vehicle enquiry volumes despite decreased new vehicle stock availability.

CRZ recently acquired Jumbuck Entertainment’s OZtion assets which is one of the world’s leading developers of mobile phone applications.

FY earnings

CRZ reported a 30% jump in FY underlying earnings to $83.8 million with EBITDA margins at 55%.

Operating cashflow for the period climbed 19% to $60.1 million with operating revenue rising 26% to $152.5 million.

Earnings per share (EPS) increased by 34% to 25 cps while a final FY11 dividend of 10.5 cents per share was declared.

The majority of its revenue (47%) comes from the Dealer division and the Private division which accounts for approximately 20% of revenue.

The period saw continued strong growth in automotive enquiry volumes, up 15% on year.

Looking ahead

CRZ’s FY earnings were highly impressive, convincingly beating guidance. The company is looking to stay ahead of its competitors through the use of mobile devices.

Mobile now accounts for 13% of CRZ’s automotive traffic.

The acquisition of OZtion delivers CRZ a robust and proven e-commerce platform that will complement its growing general classifieds business.

CRZ has introduced significant new product releases with many planned for the coming months.

Its mobile application is expected to continue growing at a strong rate and will be a key area of ongoing focus.

Tough economic conditions remain a key challenge but we feel CRZ has enough upside potential to remain an outperformer, thus making it one of the stocks to watch.

Receive FREE Trading Recommendations for the next 7 Days, Click Here!

Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) is a junior gold producer with operations at Sandstone in Western Australia and the Andorinhas Gold mine in Para State, Brazil.

The company, which is dual-listed on the Australian and Toronto Stock Exchanges, also boasts the Casposo gold-silver project being developed in Argentina.

TRY has forged a proven record of fast-track mine development., low cost operations, strategic acquisitions and exploration discoveries.

The Casposo mine and processing plant development recently recorded its first gold pour.

TRY has stepped into gold production at the right time, with gold prices repeatedly hitting record highs and driving up prospective gold miners such as TRY.

Operations booming

TRY is involved in gold production through its operations at Sandstone and Andorinhas, with the latter a focus of TRY’s attention over the last year.

Last year TRY acquired the Casposo gold/silver deposit in Argentina, and on 29 September confirmed the commencement of ore processing at the project.

The project has already poured its first gold.

Casposo will support the doubling of TRY’s production and rejoining the plus 100,000oz per annum producer club.

Troy Resources has an aggressive exploration program aimed at increasing Reserves and Resources and nearly all of this exploration expenditure is expensed.

The miner recently announced a high grade drill intercept outside the current Reserves and Resources in the Kamila South East Extension.

TRY is confident it will add to the existing Reserves and extend the mine life past the current planned 6 years.

Quarterly update

For the June quarter, TRY saw a 68% increase in group gold production to 26,382oz at a cash cost of US$496/oz.

For the year, gold production was up 17% to 71,614oz at a cash cost of US$554/oz.

The miner enjoyed record quarterly and annual production at Andorinhas. TRY has its exploration budget at Caposo to $15 million.

Strong cashflow generation saw net debt decrease to just $5.5 million at the end of the quarter.

Looking ahead

With inflation concerns and a weaker US dollar continuing to propel gold prices higher, we feel TRY has plenty of upside potential.

Bullion prices have rocketed this year, and the domestic gold miners have been some of the hot stocks in recent months.

Gold price has repeatedly hit record highs of US$1815.5 per oz last week with forecasts it will keep rising.

Fears over rising debt levels across the US and Europe provide strong support for gold prices.

TRY is committed to pursuing growth through exploration, acquisition of new projects and/or corporate merger activity.

Click to Receive FREE Trading Recommendations for the next 7 Days!

McMillan Shakespeare (ASX:MMS) is the leading provider of independent salary packaging services in Australia.

The group’s primary services include: salary packaging, remuneration policy design, motor vehicle lease management, information retrieval, procurement of motor vehicles and finance and administration of fuel card and service maintenance programs.

MMS occupies a unique market position: it is the only integrated provider of salary packaging and “company car” solutions, and its services are seeing a lot of demand.

Recent acquisitions have helped MMS win new lucrative business contracts.

The benefits are reflected in its strong business momentum which saw MMS report solid first half earnings.

The salary packaging scene

Salary packaging is a lucrative business. Australia’s taxation system allows tax concessions for certain employee benefits and for certain industry sectors, which makes salary packaging attractive.

Eligible employees increase their disposable income by using pre-tax salary to pay for goods or services. They also use these benefits to attract and retain staff in a tight employment market.

Existing payroll systems do not cope well with salary packaging, and this is where MMS comes in.

McMillian Shakespeare administers budgets; deducts pretax salary; makes payments to service providers on behalf of an employee; and accurately reports transactions for tax purposes.

A high transaction load, a complex business process and the tax implications leads many employers to outsource this task to MMS.

Likewise, fleet management is a complex and capital intensive task. Many corporations choose to outsource management and/or lease their fleet using MMS.

First Half results

MMS saw its NPAT and EPS for the first half rise 83% on year. NPAT for the period came in at $20.5 million and EPS at 30.3 cents per share.

An interim dividend of 16 cents per share was declared, up from 10 cents a share on year.

Its Asset Management business recorded a NPAT of $6.6 million.

First half performance in its asset management segment exceeded expectations.

Asset Management capability has opened up significant new opportunities in the private sector for Group Remuneration Services. This has been a largely untapped market for MMS.

The company has been focusing on integration; maintaining momentum in its core business; and disciplined prioritisation of tasks and opportunities.

New business wins and cross sells continue to build momentum.

Looking ahead

MMS runs a unique business that is able to grow even during economic downturns, with the market running at 3-8% per annum.

A combination of the Group Remuneration Services business with the Asset Management business is helping to create a different and more capable organisation.

The company has been able to capitalise on demand for salary packaging and fleet management services, which involve a complex business process as well as tax implications, leading many employers to outsource this task to MMS.

Continued, disciplined development of its core business combined with increasing participation rates within its existing customer portfolio will help MMS going forward.

The company’s FY11 earnings may expectations given the typical seasonal bias favouring the second half of the year.

MMS has been one of the shares to buy since early 2009 and future growth will be sustained by the group’s alliance with big-name (including government) clients and new contracts.

For Complementary Stocks to Buy Advice, click here.

Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) is an integrated franchisor, retailer and property entity, operating a slew of retail stores under three leading brand names: Harvey Norman, Domayne and Joyce Mayne.

Together, these stores sell computer hardware and software, furniture, bedding, electrical appliances, floor coverings, and kitchen and bathroom renovations and items.

Retailers were struggling over the global economic downturn, particularly hit throughout 2008 as high interest rates, climbing unemployment and sluggish consumer spending took a toll.

The trend is now continuing as external environmental pressures, and recent concerns that retail spending is slowing down in Australia has negatively hit HVN’s stock.

Pressure from a rising Aussie dollar and online retailing has seen HVN become one of the shares to sell in recent times.

Challenging market

We have already seen a slowing in consumer spending as rising interest rates put pressure on consumer spending. Making matters worse is the fact that the banks have raised interest rates by more than what the Reserve Bank (RBA) has done.

Yesterday, the RBA left the official cash rate at 4.75% against the backdrop of global market uncertainty.

The central bank noted that asset prices had softened in recent months and consumer demand was likely to remain weak in the near term.

We saw new home sales slumped 8.7% from May to June, as Australians grew worried over the global economy and the potential for further interest rate hikes.

The huge decline in home sales provides further evidence of a struggling housing market, and raises concerns over the impact of another rate hike on the economy.

Being also involved in furniture and other appliances, this news hurts HVN’s business.

All the major banks have signalled concerns over slowing credit growth and subdued business and consumer spending.

The effect has taken a toll on the most of the retailers. Recent jobs data showing a huge drop in full time jobs also presents further downside for the retailer.

The rising Aussie dollar has seen consumers shift towards purchasing products from overseas retailing websites. This has impacted on sales at the local retailers and has put pressure on prices and margins for operators like HVN.

Deflating profits

In February, Harvey Norman announced a 17% slump in 1H11 net profit to $131.7 million.  The fall in profit was attributable to price deflation, a strong Aussie dollar and the wet weather impact on sales.

Revenue grew 12.4% to $804.1 million however sales were impacted by consumer caution due to last year’s interest rate hikes.

HVN’s outlook was positive despite economic and market headwinds.  A final dividend of 6 cents was declared, down from 5 cents a year earlier.

HVN reported a 1.4% on-year increase in sales for the nine months ending March 31, 2011.

However, like-for-like sales fell 3.5% in the same period. HVN said the poor result was attributable mostly to adverse currency movements.

Looking ahead

A weak consumer environment implies sales growth is likely to remain subdued in the medium term.

Retail figures continue to disappoint on the back of subdued business and consumer figures.

Other factors such as increasing online retailing due to a stronger Aussie dollar have hurt the sector.

The rise and rise of online retailing has also hurt HVN and its peers. Gerry Harvey has been particularly vocal about the threat of online retail to his business model and continues to put pressure on the government to take action.

Unfortunately for the retailers, with the Aussie dollar as strong as it is, shopping online is becoming increasingly cheaper.

Harvey Norman will thus be one of the stocks to watch in the near future, as it is likely to continue facing these headwinds.

Click to Receive FREE Stock Recommendations