James Hardie Industries (ASX:JHX) is a leading international building materials group that produces a wide range of fibre cement building materials used in the exterior and interior of residential and commercial buildings.

The company is also the largest seller of home siding (imitation wood) in the US, and produces fibre cement in the US, Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines.

Approximately 80% of JHX’s sales come from the housing industry, and the majority of this exposure is via the US housing market.

Although the US property crash has been a millstone on JHX, recent evidence suggests the market may have turned the corner.

JHX focus on efficiency and market share gains has placed it in an advantageous position to benefit from increased US housing activity.

US housing recovery

Although the US housing sector has been in a well established decline for much of the past five years, recent evidence is pointing to a long-awaited recovery.

Among the relevant housing indicators for James Hardie are housing starts and building permits.

Housing starts measure the number of new monthly building constructions, whilst building permits are more of a leading indicator in that they measure the number of new monthly residential building permits.

Since May 2011, both these indicators have been steadily rising in a sign Americans are beginning to take advantage of the country’s record low interest rates.

Furthermore, we see this momentum continuing due to the slowly strengthening US jobs market and the Federal Reserve’s pledge to maintain low interest rates until the end of 2014.

Operating results

In late November, JHX reported a 1Q12 net operating profit of US$41.2 million, which was double its result in 1Q11.

Despite reporting low demand, James Hardie was able to achieve its profit on the back of operational improvements such as a reduction in fixed costs, as well as an increased share of the fibre cement market.

This increased market share, positions JHX well in the event of an acceleration of the US housing recovery.

Outlook

JHX forecast FY12 net operating profit of US$126 – US$140 million.  Although management was cautious about the outlook for US housing, recent data points to a noticeable pickup in this industry.

With US employment inching higher, housing affordability high and the Fed committed to a record low interest rate environment, there are enough incentives to drive continued improvement in residential construction activity.

We at Australian Stock Report believe that a focus on cost control and increasing market share has placed JHX in a strong position to leverage off any US housing recovery.

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Mirabela Nickel (ASX:MBN) is a mining company focused on the production and sale of nickel concentrate.

The miner’s key asset is the Santa Rita nickel operation in Bahia, Brazil.

MBN achieved its production ramp up goals in 2011, successfully upgrading the Santa Rita’s plant capacity to 7.2Mtpa of ore milled, from 4.6Mtpa in 2010.

However the ramp up was also accompanied by rising cash costs, which detracted significantly from an otherwise solid set of December 2011 quarter production numbers.

Costly cash

Mirabela Nickel announced its December quarter production report today.

Nickel output climbed 9% from the previous quarter, helping MBN to meet its 2011 production target of 15,854 tonnes.

However the production numbers were overshadowed by a disappointing rise in cash costs.

Cash costs jumped 11% on the quarter to US$7.42, as the higher output was accompanied by higher plant costs and lower productivity.

Additionally, mining costs rose amid increased expenses relating to drilling activity.

The ramp up in quarterly production was thus poorly executed due to the company’s own efficiencies as well as industry cost pressures.

Risk on

Another concerning aspect of the production release was the almost 50% fall in MBN’s cash holdings from the prior quarter.

A significant part of that outflow was due to the closing out of the company’s nickel and copper hedges.

The lower cash balance in addition to a new US$50 million debt facility entered into by a Brazilian subsidiary, raises MBN’s risk profile in a period of economic uncertainty.

Outlook

MBN has raised its 2012 production guidance, targeting 20,000 – 22,000 tonnes of nickel output.

As mentioned, however, greater output is not necessarily a good thing when it is accompanied by higher cash costs.

Mirabela Nickel has commenced a cost reduction program, which aims to lower cash costs towards US$6/lb by the end of the year. However that is largely dependent on the proper implementation of the program.

Although a return to steady state production may help, cost reductions will also be linked to the favourable renegotiation of MBN’s major contracts.

Having recently closed out of its nickel hedges, MBN is now fully exposed to the movement in commodity prices.

Unfortunately, there is also considerable uncertainty surrounding nickel prices, with brokers Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs recently downgrading their forecasts amid concerns about oversupply.

We at Australian Stock Report believe these headwinds are likely to weigh on MBN’s share price for a while yet.

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St. Barbara Ltd (ASX:SBM) is a gold exploration and production company.  The Company’s exploration projects include its Southern Cross and Leonora Operations which are located in Western Australia.

ASX Small Cap stock, St Barbara today released production figures for the fourth quarter revealing a production increase of 18% compared to the previous quarter.

The company said in a statement that the increase was due primarily to stronger milled volumes and the higher grade of ore mined.

SBM said exploration drilling will increase in the second half with the exploration budget set to increase by $6 million for the year to $22 million.

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BHP Billiton (ASX:BHP) is an international resources company.  The Company’s principal business lines are mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining.

Blue chip stock BHP, today announced that its latest quarterly iron ore output increased 22% in the December quarter compared to the previous quarter.

BHP’s operations in Western Australia’s Pilbara region recorded record production on an annualized basis, as the company expanded its infrastructure base in the area.

The Melbourne based company said that it expects full-year production to marginally exceed prior guidance of 159 million tons per annum.

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OneSteel Ltd (ASX:OST) is an Australian manufacturer of steel and finished steel products and a leading metal distributor which is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange.

OST, which was spun out of BHP in October 2000, markets products used in the construction, manufacturing, housing, mining and agricultural industries.

OneSteel announced today that it will write-down $150 million of the value of its LiteSteel Technologies business due to weak residential construction activity.

The company said that the financial statements for last six months of the year will include $90 million of the write-down.

OneSteel also announced that it will sell its Piping System business for $67 million to US based McJunkin Red Man.

Together with the sale of related property investments the company expects proceeds of approximately $100 million.

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St Barbara (ASX:SBM) is an Australian Small Cap gold producer and explorer.

SBM’s primary assets are its Southern Cross and Leonora operations, both of which are located in Western Australia. The company purchased the Gwalia (WA) mine in 2005, which has now become its main focus.

St Barbara today announced it has established an on-market share buy-back facility to repurchase up to a maximum of 15 million of its ordinary shares.

The buy-back will be conducted over a six month period.

The company stated the buy-back facility will enable it to apply its strong balance sheet and cash position to consolidate the company’s capital base for the benefit of shareholders.

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Macmahon Holdings (ASX:MAH) is an engineering contracting company operating in the mining industry. The company operates in Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia. It was formed in 1963 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange in December 1983. The business consists of four divisions: Civil, Open Cut, Underground and Services.

Macmahon Holdings announced today that it expects full year net profit for the FY12 to be more than $55 million.

Last month MAH had forecasted full year profit of around $45 million.

CEO Nick Bowen said that additional work and greater clarity on project commencement has combined for the improved outlook for the company.

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Kagara (ASX:KZL) is a copper, zinc-lead and nickel miner, with operations in North Queensland and WA. It has four operational hubs in North Queensland – Mungana, Mt. Garnet, Balcooma and Thalanga.

KZL’s North Queensland mines supply ore to three treatment facilities in Mt. Garnet (copper and polymetallic) and Thalanga (polymetallic).

A strategic review determined KZL’s nickel operations at Lounge Lizard, WA to be non-core, and so the group has put the assets up for sale.

The company faced major operational issues in FY11, which culminated in a $32.2 million loss.

An uncertain outlook for commodities has come at a poor time for Kagara, with its recently announced capital raising highlighting potential cash problems at the company.

Although KZL recently unveiled a five year turnaround strategy, we feel there are significant near-term headwinds that are likely to keep its share price under pressure.

Operational issues

KZL’s September quarter activities report revealed a 3% fall in copper output from the June quarter. However that was balanced by a 13% rise in zinc output.

Cash costs for both commodities fell on the quarter, reflecting the company’s focus on protecting its margins in the face of declining prices.

The quarterly output result followed a hugely disappointing FY11, which was characterised by a $32.2 million loss (compared to a $3.2 million profit in FY10).

The loss came on the back of a $48.5 million write-down of KZL’s Mt. Garnet and Mungana mines (Mungana Mines: MUX is 61.9% owned by KZL).

Production over the year was impacted by a prolonged wet season.  This was accompanied by rising cash costs over the year, which came about due to lower zinc output and adverse FX movements.

Uncertain commodities outlook

Europe’s debt crisis coupled with signs of a slowdown in Chinese economic activity has clouded the outlook for KZL’s key commodities – copper and zinc.

Copper has slumped around 17% from the highs it created in July, whilst zinc has suffered similar falls amid persistent concerns about global oversupply.

Copper is usually seen as an economic barometer, and its recent weakness suggests diminishing prospects for global growth.

Although longer-term we expect stronger demand for the red metal, we see more weakness in the near-term as Europe struggles to end its debt crisis.

Cap raising highlights problems

Kagara’s problems ultimately led to a $25 million capital raising (completed today), which it said was to finalise the acquisition of the Einasleigh Copper Deposit at Mt. Garnet.

Einasleigh was bought from Copper Strike (CSE) for $16 million, as part of KZL’s push to ramp up production in the next five years.

The announcement of the raising was surprising considering it came less than three months after KZL unveiled its five year turnaround strategy.

The capital raising suggests KZL is facing cash problems, with the group in a precarious position as it looks to significantly increase exploration activities in North Queensland.

Worryingly, this leaves KZL vulnerable to continued declines in copper prices and any unforseen production delays.

Outlook

KZL has been hit hard in recent times due to operational issues at its mines.  A prolonged wet season led to production delays and write-downs at Mt. Garnet and Mungana, which was reflected in a massive loss for FY11.

Although KZL is to embark on a five year turnaround strategy, it has set itself lofty exploration and production goals. The group aims to produce 30,000tpa of copper by FY15 (FY11: 22,530t) and 71,000tpa of zinc by FY14 (FY11: 40,125t).

KZL’s immediate focus, however, is on ensuring it has enough cash to cover near-term development expenses.

The recently completed capital raising is a worrying sign, and suggests KZL has little room for error in a very uncertain global economy.

A worsening of Europe’s debt crisis could see copper prices come under further selling pressure, thus impacting KZL’s margins.

As a result, we feel there is further near-term weakness in store for KZL’s share price.

KZL’s woes have seen it being a major mover on the ASX, it has plummet more than 60% in 2011.

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Orica Ltd (ASX:ORI) is a leading manufacturer of industrial & specialty chemicals, agricultural chemicals & fertilisers, commercial explosives & mining chemicals, paints & other consumer products in Australasia.

Orica has four broad business groups – Mining Services, Fertilisers, Chemicals and Consumer Products. ORI is a truly multinational company, with operations in over 40 countries. The company is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and is part of the S&P/ASX 200.

Materials stock Orica announced today that it is resuming its Ammonium Nitrate production plant at Kooragang Island, near Newcastle.

The plant and several others have been closed since August, after thousands of litters of a dilute ammonium nitrate solution leaked from a storage facility.

Orica said re-start activities at the remaining facilities, are progressing.

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Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL) develops, manufactures, and distributes gaming machines and systems in Australia, New Zealand, the Americas, Asia Pacific, South Africa and Europe.

ALL is the largest gaming machine company in Australia and the world’s second-largest slot machine maker.

The company has been a basket case over the past few years amid weak consumer spending and adverse FX movements, as well as industry and operational problems.

Although ALL’s 1H11 profit was down sharply on-year, certain elements of the earnings release indicate the company is better placed to leverage off a cyclical rebound in its core markets – Australia and the US.

Gambling on weak 1H11

Aristocrat Leisure reported a 1H11 net profit of $24.9 million, which was down 49.5% from 1H10.  On a normalised basis, earnings were down 32% (1H10’s profit was inflated by a one-off gain on an asset sale). An interim dividend of 2.5 cents was declared.

The profit was impacted mostly by higher net interest costs, adverse FX movements and an 8.8% fall in revenue to $310.6 million.

Sales weakened amid tough trading conditions in North America – ALL’s biggest segment.  The division’s EBIT margin also contracted 5.6 basis points due to a higher proportion of second hand sales.

However the Australian operations performed solidly, with revenue there rising 5.5% on-year to $73.4 million.

The launch of the Viridian WS cabinets was well received by customers, driving average selling prices higher and improving margins despite competitive market conditions.

Encouraging outlook

Despite a tough half, ALL confirmed FY11 net profit guidance of 10% – 20% growth on FY10’s $77.2 million.

Although the North American division struggled, there was positive momentum towards the end of the half, with average daily fees increasing due to the rollout of new game titles.

Assuming a continuation of this trend, higher selling prices could be an important driver of earnings in the second half. Also, as legacy products are cycled out, ALL’s margins could see a turnaround due to a more favourable selling mix.

The operating environment is at least showing signs of improvement, with US consumer sentiment having shot higher in recent weeks.

Although market conditions were expected to remain challenging in Australia, Aristocrat Leisure nevertheless forecast a continuation of top line momentum, along with improved selling prices and margins.

Importantly, Aristocrat Leisure’s new product rollout makes it well placed to leverage off a cyclical rebound in both countries.

Market sentiment towards the stock has improved in recent months, and we believe there is further near-term upside to come.

ALL is a defiantly a stock to watch.

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