The company has a portfolio of predominantly low-cost, long-life operating mines, although it also has a history of operations troubles at its key projects (both operational and developmental).

1H13 Results

NCM’s 1H13 results were disappointing on several fronts. Gold production for the half was 953,000 ounces, down 18% on prior corresponding half.

Cash costs increased 8% on same period in FY12. The poor production results led to revenue falling 28% and underlying profit plummeted 48%.

Guidance downgrade

Late last month, the group downgraded its full year production – its fifth downgrade in the last two years. Gold production was lowered from 2.3 to 2.5 million ounces of gold to 2.0 to 2.15 million ounces.

The company cited operational issues at Lihir and Gosowong as the reason for the downgrade. While the downgrade was not a massive shock given the poor 1H results, it is yet more evidence of management inability to forecasts its own production.

Gold Prices

While the groups poor results have contributed to recent share price weakness, it correlation to the gold price has also contributed.

The above shows the gold price (white line) and NCM share price (yellow line) over the last nine month.

As is shown, the fall in the gold price has dragged on NCM’s share price. With fears of monetary easing-induced hyperinflation are abating, other asset classes such as equities are offering relatively stronger returns.

Outlook

NCM’s 1H13 results showed the effects of both poor production and a falling gold price.

Disappointingly, the group last month downgraded its full year guidance. This downgrade was already from what we would consider low-end guidance and while not a complete surprise it does not leave us with much faith its management’s ability to forecast its own production.

With the flight to stronger returning asset classes likely to continue in the near-term, we see continued weakness for the gold price and as a by-product NCM’s share price.

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St. Barbara Ltd (ASX:SBM) is a gold exploration and production company.  The Company’s exploration projects include its Southern Cross and Leonora Operations which are located in Western Australia.

ASX Small Cap stock, St Barbara today released production figures for the fourth quarter revealing a production increase of 18% compared to the previous quarter.

The company said in a statement that the increase was due primarily to stronger milled volumes and the higher grade of ore mined.

SBM said exploration drilling will increase in the second half with the exploration budget set to increase by $6 million for the year to $22 million.

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St Barbara (ASX:SBM) is an Australian Small Cap gold producer and explorer.

SBM’s primary assets are its Southern Cross and Leonora operations, both of which are located in Western Australia. The company purchased the Gwalia (WA) mine in 2005, which has now become its main focus.

St Barbara today announced it has established an on-market share buy-back facility to repurchase up to a maximum of 15 million of its ordinary shares.

The buy-back will be conducted over a six month period.

The company stated the buy-back facility will enable it to apply its strong balance sheet and cash position to consolidate the company’s capital base for the benefit of shareholders.

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Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd (ASX:SAR) is an Australian mid-tier gold producer based in WA.

The company bought its major assets off Sons of Gwalia back in 2006 – when the latter went bankrupt – and has done well to develop the assets and move from an explorer to a producer.

SAR’s key assets are located in the South Laverton mining district, 120km North-East of famed gold mining town Kalgoorlie, in Western Australia. This includes around 200 granted tenements and applications pending spread over 2,500 square kilometres.

Since purchasing these assets, SAR has spent money exploring the tenements and developing the projects to production.

The company completed a Definitive Feasibility Study on the South Laverton gold project in December 2008 and started producing gold in early 2010.

Ramping up

Having started production in April last year, SAR has achieved strong production quite quickly and established itself as an enticing small producer.

The company produced 111,163 ounces of gold in FY11, its first full year of production, at an average cash cost of $738 an ounce.

SAR has forecast production of around 125,000 ounces in FY12 at costs of around $700-$750 an ounce. So far FY12 is off to a solid start, with the company recently releasing its September quarter Activities Statement. Production of 31,790 ounces at cash cost of $730 was right in light with guidance.

By de-watering some of its flooded pits, SAR hopes to ramp up production to over 160,000 ounces a year by 2015.  Management has proven to be conservative and reliable so far, offering some reassurance in what is a speculative sector.

Saracen Mineral Holdings has managed significant upgrades to its gold resources and reserves, presently standing at around 3,300,000oz and 880,000oz respectively.  Most of the reserves are open-pit, which allows for easier and cheaper mining.

The sizeable resources and potential underground mining pave the way for a long mine life, while the company has extensive exploration potential to upgrade this further.

The hunt for Red October

SAR’s has planned to spend $35 million on exploration activities in FY12, a sizeable budget given the size of the company.

The company recently completed a placement, raising $50.2 million and helping the company to end the September quarter with $60.3 million in net cash and no debt. A share purchase plan and subsequent placement have raised a further $15 million since.

Together with cash generated from production (almost $10 million last quarter), SAR will not need to raise significant fresh capital to fund this.

Much of SAR’s exploration efforts will be in exploring its Red October project. The company expects to have completed dewatering the pits shortly, to be followed by underground development work.

Previous drilling results have confirmed the continuity of ore body at Red October and further exploration efforts could lead to significant resource upgrades relatively quickly.

Production from Red October is expected to commence in FY12, but potential major exploration success could provide a major share catalyst before then.

Outlook

SAR only started gold production just over 18 months ago but is already generating output of around 125,000 ounces a year.

Incremental production upgrades could come in the next few years, but the significant upside potential comes from the development of its Red October operation.

While SAR offers significant exploration upside, its existing production provides extra protection, and suggests that the market could re-rate the stock and push SAR shares much higher than current levels.

SAR is a defiantly a stock to watch.

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Azimuth Resources (ASX:AZH) is a junior gold and uranium explorer, with projects based in Guyana and South America.

The group holds approximately 8000km² of gold tenements in Guyana, and its main asset is the West Omai gold project, which it is currently exploring.

AZH’s other interests are the East Omai gold project, the Amakura uranium project, and the Pandanus West uranium project in Australia.

The company is an exciting prospect that has produced encouraging drilling results at West Omai. There is growing hope that the group’s maiden resource discovery will be significant enough to help underpin the start of production.

Go Guyana

The West Omai project is AZH’s flagship project, and which may contain the discovery of significant gold resources.

West Omai is part of the same corridor that hosts the Omai gold mine, which is the biggest gold mine in South America, having so far produced 3.7 million ounces of gold.

Azimuth Resources is expected to release a maiden resource estimate from the project sometime this quarter.

Given West Omai’s proximity to the Omai gold mine and the encouraging drilling results thus far, a significant resource discovery could be on the cards.

Gold shoots higher

Being an explorer, AZH is tightly leveraged to gold prices.

Although gold was sold-off heavily in September, the precious metal has bounced back strongly in recent weeks amid global economic uncertainty.

The spot price of gold is back above US$1750 an ounce after crashing to just above US$1500 in late September.

Europe’s debt crisis and the potential for another round of bond purchases by the Fed is likely to lure more nervous investors back into gold, which is likely to support prices further.

Such an outcome would be very beneficial for AZH.

Balanced out

AZH completed a $19.4 million capital raising on 31 October, giving it the balance sheet strength to pursue its Guyana exploration program well into 2012.

The raising has come at an ideal time for AZH, which has smartly taken advantage of its strong share price to shore up its finances.

The group also announced plans in April 2011 to list on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The listing is expected to boost AZH’s global profile, which will come in handy when the group looks at future capital raisings.

Outlook

AZH an exciting prospect that has produced encouraging drilling results at its West Omai project.

The group is expected to release a maiden resource estimate from the project sometime this quarter, and there is hope the estimate will be significant enough to help underpin the start of production.

AZH’s fortunes are closely linked to the price of gold, and with the precious metal on track for continued gains, we believe this will translate into continued strength for AZH’s share price.

This is one of the hot stocks of the year, rising from 25 cent in June to currently be trading beyond 50 cents.

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Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) explores and develops mineral resources in the highly prospective Kimberley region.

NST is an emerging gold producer and explorer with a market capitalisation of around $180 million.

Its main project is the Paulsens gold mine which it purchased for $40 million.

The miner expects to release a resource upgrade later this month and a new mine plan for Paulsens this year.

NST recently acquired the 668,000 ounce (oz) Ashburton Gold Project which is close to the Paulsens mine.

Precious metal speed hump

We saw gold and silver futures slide recently as investors reacted to hikes in margin requirements for the contracts.

The CME Group raised margin requirements for both initial and existing positions in gold, copper and silver.

Margins are money investors must put up to be able to trade and hold futures contracts.

Gold lost more than US$100/oz on the announcement, printing a low of around US$1533/oz.

However, gold prices have since recovered from that low and are currently hanging at around US$1665/oz.

The fact of the matter is, the underlying fundamentals behind the gold price rally over the past year are still intact and we are likely to see gold continue to rise.

Ashburton acquisition

NST agreed to purchase the Ashburton Gold Project from Sipa Resources which will be paid for via a royalty on future production.

The deal includes 668,000oz resource and the Mt Olympus Gold Mine, which has previously produced 340,000oz.

This puts NST in a prime position to increase production rates, project life and create shareholder wealth through exploration.

Ashburton is a strategic asset for Northern Star Resources as it provides an immediate resource boost to the miner’s resource base.

High grade drilling results from Ashburton announced last week show NST is on track to grow production to 200,000ozpa.

Results

NST recently posted FY11 profit before tax of $20 million. This profit came after deducting $22 million for the acquisition of Paulsens gold mine and $24 million in depreciation and amortisation expenditure.

The result was aided by record production at Paulsens of 87,069oz at $588/oz cash cost.

NST has $30 million in cash on hand as at 27 September 2011 and is on track to exceed calendar 2011 forecast of $40 million surplus cash, 75,000oz production.

A resource upgrade is set for early 2012 with increases in mine life, production and cashflow expected.

The miner repaid the $40 million acquisition of Paulsens in just seven months.

Being unhedged, NST has maximum exposure to the strong gold prices and as a result it was one of the hot stocks over the course of 2011.

With strong cashflow and a robust balance sheet, NST is in a good position to grow.

Outlook

Gold is set to recover after recently suffering a setback from the CME’s decision to raise margin requirements.

NST’s strong financial position leaves it well placed for further acquisitions in line with its objective of building a major mining house.

With the potential for further acquisitions and strong gold prices backing the unhedged miner, we feel NST will be one of the stocks to watch in coming months.

Recent weakness presents an excellent opportunity for fresh entries.

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Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) is an emerging Australian gold production and exploration company.

Its management team has a successful track record of developing mid sized gold operations within Australia and Africa.

It has been one of the hot shares in the past year, having more than tripled in price since July 2010.

Today, RRL reported a maiden FY12 net profit of $36.3 million.  The result compares to a net loss of $18.3 million in FY11.

The group posted gold sales of $107.9 million as it successfully transitioned from explorer to producer.

RRL said the development of the Garden Well Gold Project will take its output to around 350,000 ounces in FY12/13.

Therefore it will be one of the shares to watch.

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Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU) is a gold explorer, focused on under-explored gold belts in West Africa.

The group’s Central Ashanti Gold Project has reserves of 3.3 million ounces (Moz) of gold, plus 1.5 Moz Measured and Indicated gold resources and 1.9 Moz Inferred gold resources.

A further 570,000 ounces of indicated gold resources and 1.21 Moz inferred gold resources are held on PRU’s West African projects, Grumesa and Tengrela.

The two projects (Central Ashanti Gold and Tengrela) aim to put out 670,000 oz per year once at full production, which would make PRU Australia’s second-largest listed miner by production after Newcrest Mining.

Further mineral resource and reserves upgrades are planned for later this year.

The miner recently completed its first gold pour during commissioning at the Central Ashanti Gold Project.

Though PRU is currently an explorer, the company is on track to become a producer.

PRU’s aim is to become a 400,000 ounce per annum gold producer from 2013, and the company is on target to achieve this following its consistent over-delivery on targets.

PRU is looking promising owing to its exposure to the under-explored gold belts in West Africa and on strength in gold prices.

Operational update

Following a recent updated economic analysis incorporating a revised life of mine plan (LOMP), PRU has planned throughput optimisation upgrades over the next 18 months.

Under the upgrade, average process throughput will increase from 5.5 Mtpa to 7.9 Mtpa.

Average annual gold production is set to increase by 38% to approximately 265,000oz.

Cash costs will drop to US$551/oz with a base case gold price of US$1,150/oz.

As a result, PRU’s EBITDA over the life of the project has increased by 127% to $1.56 billion.

The early start up of the Central Ashanti Gold Project could push the gold miner’s EBITDA up to US$300 million a year in 2013 and 2014.

Of course, the company will continue to lose money until it starts producing, although it has ample funding facilities to pursue its exploration activities and mine development plans.

Looking ahead

Perseus Mining is turning market heads over its consistent over-delivery on targets. The group is also in good financial stead, with approximately US$100 million cash.

Though PRU’s recent financial results are nothing to write home about, this is typical of a company in its emerging stages.

PRU is looking promising owing to its exposure to the under-explored gold belts in West Africa and on strength in gold prices.

The group will continue to expand its gold resources through rapid exploration of existing tenements and the acquisition of prospective new projects, while developing the Central Ashanti Gold Project.

Gold has gained significant ground this year, consistently reaching fresh record highs.

However, the precious metal saw a pullback late last week but is still in a good position to register further gains.

The metal printed highs of around US$1900 early last week and continues to hold its ground well above US$1800.

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Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) is a junior gold producer with operations at Sandstone in Western Australia and the Andorinhas Gold mine in Para State, Brazil.

The company, which is dual-listed on the Australian and Toronto Stock Exchanges, also boasts the Casposo gold-silver project being developed in Argentina.

TRY has forged a proven record of fast-track mine development., low cost operations, strategic acquisitions and exploration discoveries.

The Casposo mine and processing plant development recently recorded its first gold pour.

TRY has stepped into gold production at the right time, with gold prices repeatedly hitting record highs and driving up prospective gold miners such as TRY.

Operations booming

TRY is involved in gold production through its operations at Sandstone and Andorinhas, with the latter a focus of TRY’s attention over the last year.

Last year TRY acquired the Casposo gold/silver deposit in Argentina, and on 29 September confirmed the commencement of ore processing at the project.

The project has already poured its first gold.

Casposo will support the doubling of TRY’s production and rejoining the plus 100,000oz per annum producer club.

Troy Resources has an aggressive exploration program aimed at increasing Reserves and Resources and nearly all of this exploration expenditure is expensed.

The miner recently announced a high grade drill intercept outside the current Reserves and Resources in the Kamila South East Extension.

TRY is confident it will add to the existing Reserves and extend the mine life past the current planned 6 years.

Quarterly update

For the June quarter, TRY saw a 68% increase in group gold production to 26,382oz at a cash cost of US$496/oz.

For the year, gold production was up 17% to 71,614oz at a cash cost of US$554/oz.

The miner enjoyed record quarterly and annual production at Andorinhas. TRY has its exploration budget at Caposo to $15 million.

Strong cashflow generation saw net debt decrease to just $5.5 million at the end of the quarter.

Looking ahead

With inflation concerns and a weaker US dollar continuing to propel gold prices higher, we feel TRY has plenty of upside potential.

Bullion prices have rocketed this year, and the domestic gold miners have been some of the hot stocks in recent months.

Gold price has repeatedly hit record highs of US$1815.5 per oz last week with forecasts it will keep rising.

Fears over rising debt levels across the US and Europe provide strong support for gold prices.

TRY is committed to pursuing growth through exploration, acquisition of new projects and/or corporate merger activity.

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Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM) is the biggest Australian gold producer on the share market, with mining and exploration projects in Australia, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Indonesia and the US.

Gold remains in high demand due to a volatile US dollar and economic uncertainty, and as a result NCM has been one of the best stocks in the past few months.

Today, NCM reported a 63% surge in FY11 net profit to $908 million, driven mainly by surging gold prices and the production jump from its Lihir acquisition.

A final unfranked dividend of 20 cents was declared, in addition to a special unfranked dividend of 20 cents.

Underlying profit was up 36% on-year to $1.06 billion, coming in slightly ahead of analyst estimates.

NCM grew its FY11 output 43% to 2.5 million ounces of gold, and forecast FY12 production of 2.775 million – 2.925 million ounces.

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