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Share to buy – Whitehaven Coal (WHC)
Until recently, we've viewed a lack of market confidence as mis-pricing WHC.
Over the journey, the company has maintained an earnings margin average of $13/t but it appears the market has been factoring in the future coal price and giving management little benefit for being able to sustain its margins, despite its track record.
The risk lies with the thermal coal price outlook and whether China continues to retreat from the trade.
Today the company announced record high ROM coal production of 5.7Mt for the March quarter, up 21% compared with the previous corresponding period and 44% YTD.
The company also recorded its highest quarterly saleable coal production of 5.3 Mt for March, up 28% compared to a year earlier, and 48% YTD.
Whitehaven Coal says that it is on track to meet FY2016 guidance for saleable coal to be in the range of 19.5 Mt to 20.1 Mt.
The miner says that costs guidance for the full year FY2016 is now expected to be $57/t.
We think momentum can now build in the stock and are prepared to be buyers..
Share to buy – Ramsay Healthcare (RHC)
- Market cap: $12.01 Billion
- Recent share price: $59.9
- Cash/debt: $315.86 million/$3.17B
- Trailing P/E: 32.64
Ramsay Healthcare is the largest private hospital operator in Australia and one of the top five hospital companies in the world. It has a presence in the UK, France, Indonesia and Malaysia. In Nov 2015, they inked a joint venture agreement with one of China's leading medical universities to build a number of new private hospitals in China's Pearl River Delta thus expanding its reach further.
RHC has a strong competitive advantage, which it has leveraged to grow its business. Key features include;
- Guaranteed demand given the growing ageing populations on a global scale
- Pricing power over its customers, insurers and governments, which often have no alternative but to use Ramsay’s services.
- Buying and building hospitals is very expensive and this is a major deterrent to other companies looking to enter the market.
- Ramsay has also proven to be very astute at building new beds at just the right pace to grow earnings without increasing supply beyond demand.
- Ramsay delivered solid growth in FY15 with revenues, core earnings per share and full year dividends increasing by 49.8%, 20% and 18.8% respectively.
- Management has provided guidance of 12-14% earnings per share growth in FY16 barring any unforeseen circumstances.
Share to buy – BHP Billiton (BHP)
The big question on every investor’s lips right now is, ‘Should I buy BHP?’
The Big Australian has fallen sharply in the last 12 months, having given up half of its value.
The rout has come about due to slowing growth out of China and a subdued outlook for global economic growth.
The Samarco mine disaster in Brazil has also weighed heavily, with BHP and partner Vale expected to be footing a multi-billion dollar bill for the tailings dam failure.
These factors, coupled with massive oversupply in key iron ore and oil markets, have driven the share price south.
But commodity slumps don’t last forever; booms turn to busts and back to booms in due course.
And over the cycle, BHP has remained and will remain one of, it not the world’s best diversified mining companies, with an enviable portfolio of world-class assets.
If you have a long-term investment horizon and are willing to put up with some volatility, now could be an ideal time to revisit BHP given the depressed share price.
Share to sell – Graincorp (GNC)
GNC’s FY15 result was in line with the company’s guidance. We suspect that FY16 will be another below-average year for cropping and the winter harvest is likely to be downgraded over coming weeks. With the effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon also likely to weigh – through lower crop yields and less revenue from GNC’s grain handling business – as well as the stock being on the verge of breaking down technically, we feel shorts are an appropriate course of action. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock move towards the $6.50 region over the next 6-12 months.
Share to buy – Computershare (CPU)
Computershare maintained FY16 guidance and provided greater clarity around cost savings and gearing targets at its recent AGM. We see the company responding to market feedback and this suggests a more communicative stance in the months ahead. With a rise in the Fed funds rate around the corner, which would be a positive for CPU, we see further upside on offer with $12.50 a potential target.
Share to sell – Woolworths (WOW)
Woolworths’ recent results were weak and the company is under significant pressure from competitors. The underlying grocery business saw margin decline while Big W and Masters were weaker than expected. The results were the worst for the supermarket and retail giant since 2012. Things aren’t likely to pick up anytime soon either, with Aldi recently announcing that it not only plans to expand aggressively on the west coast of Australia, but also that it is planning to open even more east coast stores than previously forecast. Throw into the mix a pricing war with Coles - which Woolworths is losing - and more competition from another German brand, Lidl, and things are looking tough for WOW. On the technical front, all the bearish evidence we require is in place.
Share to sell – Crown Resorts (CWN)
Since topping our around $16 in February, Crown has really struggled and is presently trading near $11. Macau continues to weigh on the stock, while pressure on VIP remains. The Melco JV has been the primary cause of volatility and caution prevails regarding Macau because of China's macroeconomic environment. Technically, we're seeing everything that we want; the EMAs are in a bearish configuration, momentum is to the downside, the stock is only approaching oversold levels and the recent massive reversal provides our price action signal.
Share to buy – Challenger Financial (CGF)
Challenger’s recent results were strong, coming in ahead of expectations. We believe the stock to be good value, given a strong organic growth profile in an otherwise fully valued sector. Furthermore, the outlook for the Life Division is attractive, while the funds management operations continue to expand. It appears that a solid base has been set for earnings growth in FY16. On the technical front, Challenger looks poised to break higher out of the recent range, bound by resistance around $7.40. The EMAs are in a bullish configuration, momentum is building, volumes have picked up and the RSI is not yet in overbought territory.
Share to Buy – Qantas (QAN)
Qantas reports tomorrow and is on track to chalk up their largest annual profit since 2008. We are expecting a strong result which could push the share price significantly higher. Earlier in the week, Sydney Airport agreed to buy terminal 3 at Sydney Airport off QAN, for $535 million. In return for Sydney Airport buying back the terminal lease, which had been due to expire in 2019, Qantas has received assurances it will have priority access to 12 of 17 gates and 75 per cent of the check-in area and the majority of the baggage claim area in the terminal between 2019 and 2025. That alleviates QANs concerns that Sydney Airport could turn the terminal, used only by Qantas and QantasLink, into a large multi-user facility post-2019. Technically, the QAN chart is showing us everything we would hope to see and if we get a strong set of numbers tomorrow, the uptrend should continue and even accelerate.
Share to sell – Oz Minerals (OZL)
A recommendation to sell OZL is based primarily on the weakening gold price. Gold price forecasts have been slashed across the board, by between eight and 14%. This has been done to reflect expected US rate rises and lacklustre demand. Technically, OZL is in a downtrend, having sold off from $5.10 in May to presently be trading near support in the $3.70 region. The EMAs are bearish, momentum has turned bearish and the stock is not yet oversold.
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