For a very long time, the price of gold did nothing but go up.  After all, gold is considered by many to be the ultimate safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty.

However recent history suggests gold may be losing its shine.  From a record high of US$1921 an ounce in early September 2011, the price of gold has slid around 20% to be currently trading just above US$1550.

What has driven this decline and is there further weakness in store for gold?  In today’s editorial we will attempt to answer these questions.

Recent history

As we can see from the chart below, there was an almost uninterrupted run-up in gold prices for much of the 2000s.  The price of gold has surged over 400% in the past 11 years!

What drove this run-up?  A few factors.

The tech wreck of the early 2000s sparked a mini-collapse in equity markets and dented investor confidence in some of the riskier asset classes.

In response, the US Federal Reserve (Fed), under the chairmanship of Alan Greenspan, embarked on a plan to keep interest rates as low as possible for as long as possible.

While this was followed by an equity market boom, investors became increasingly concerned about the potential for easy money conditions to result in higher inflation in the US (which eventually occurred).

Low interest rates and a widening US current deficit led to a structural decline in the US dollar, so more and more investors went looking for the next safest alternative asset – gold.

The panic induced by the GFC briefly lured investors back to the US dollar, but aggressive monetary easing policies by the Ben Bernanke-led Fed led to another major run-up in gold prices (again due to inflationary fears).

What has changed?

The chart shows gold topping out above US$1900 and since September 2011, it hasn’t really threatened to create a new high.

So what has changed?  Although the US dollar is still weak compared to a number of other currencies, on a trade-weighted basis, it has rebounded noticeably over the past two years (shown below).

The hyperinflation many feared would result from the monetary easing measures implemented by the world’s central banks never occurred.  Gold’s inflation ‘premium’ therefore is being slowly eroded.

As these inflationary fears subside the prospect of a collapse in the US dollar diminishes, which in turn is providing renewed support for the greenback at the expense of gold.

ETFs and the immediate outlook for gold

In a sign of just how serious the recent collapse in gold prices is, bullion holdings at exchange traded funds (ETFs) have fallen significantly in 2013, as we can see below:

The drop in ETF holdings highlights the extent to which investment demand is weakening.

The rationale for holding significant amounts of bullion is losing its validity; fears of quantitative easing-induced hyperinflation are abating and other asset classes like equities are offering relatively stronger returns.

The actions of ETFs carry particular significance because they are key players in the gold market. EFTs are dumping supply into the market at a time of weak demand, something that may continue weighing on the price of gold for a while yet.

This article was issued to our members of the investors report  on April 8th 2013, if you would like further information you can sign up for FREE recommendations and access all our research files on not only trading gold but all our current trading ideas. Simply click here and starting trading today, free for 7 days.

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After taking a pounding in the previous couple of session, global markets bounced back overnight, as a bounce in gold prices, upbeat US earnings reports and strong US housing data bolstered sentiment.

It wasn’t all good news however, with European stocks falling for a third straight session as German investor confidence declined more than forecast and the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth outlook. In London the UK’s FTSE 100 shed 39 points (-0.6%) to settle at 6305, whilst in Germany the DAX gave up 30 points (-0.4%) to close at 7683.

Stateside, the Dow Jones added 158 points (+ 1.1%) to 14756.78. The S&P 500 rose 22 points (+1.4%) to 1575 with all 10 sectors in positive territory. The bounce from the previous session’s big declines saw stocks return to the kind of resilience that has impressed investors in recent months.

The gains marked the fifth positive session out of the past seven for the major market benchmarks and left the Dow up 13% in 2013 and the S&P 500 up 10%.

The Commerce Department reported that construction of new homes jumped by more than economists had expected to the highest level since the financial crisis. March industrial production rose more than expected.

Gold rebounded from the biggest drop in 33 years as BlackRock said sales didn’t reflect fundamentals and an Asian central banker said policy makers may take the opportunity to buy.

Gold futures for June delivery gained 1.9% to close at $1,387.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain since September 13. Oil was little change, adding just 1 cent to settle at $88.72 a barrel on the NYMEX.

The yen and US dollar slid against currencies of commodity-exporting nations including New Zealand and South Africa as investors sought higher-yielding assets and gold and U.S. stocks gained.

Today’s session will bring us data in the form of the Melbourne Institute leading index, at 10:30am, AEST.

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Global markets were trounced overnight, with stocks sliding the most since June as China’s economic growth unexpectedly slowed and investors speculated hedges against inflation were unneeded.

European stocks retreated, following their biggest weekly gain in a month, as China’s economy grew at a slower pace than estimated and a gauge of manufacturing in the New York area missed forecasts. In London the UK’s FTSE 100 shed 41 points (-0.6%) to settle at 6344, whilst the German DAX lost 32 points (-0.4%) to close at 7713.

Stateside, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index recorded its biggest drop of the year as a gauge of market volatility jumped the most in 20 months. The S&P 500 dropped 2.3% to 1,552 in New York, the biggest decline since 7 November. The index has lost 2.6% since 11 April.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased 266 points (-1.8%) to 14,599. Commodities fell to a nine-month low, led by the worst plunge in gold since 1980.

Gold plunged the most in 33 years amid record-high trading as an unexpected slowdown in China’s economic expansion sparked a commodity selloff from investors concerned that more cash will be needed to cover positions. Gold futures for June delivery slumped 9.3% to close at $1,361.10 on the Comex in New York.

Crude fell to the lowest level this year as China’s economic growth unexpectedly eased, raising concern that demand from the world’s second-biggest oil-consuming country will slow. Oil for May delivery decreased $2.58 (-2.8%) to settle at $88.71 a barrel on the NYMEX, the lowest settlement since 24 December.

The yen held gains from yesterday against most of its major counterparts as bomb blasts in Boston and slowing growth in China fuelled demand for haven assets. Today’s session will bring us data in the form of the latest RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and new motor vehicle sales, at 11:30am, AEST.

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Global markets were generally weaker on Friday night, although the losses in the US were minimal.

European stocks fell the most in a week, snapping the longest streak of gains in three months, as U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped.

In London the UK’s FTSE 100 shed 32 points (-0.5%) to settle at 6384, whilst the German DAX slumped 127 points (-1.6%) to settle at 7745. Stateside, a four-day surge in the stock market came to an end as falling commodity prices brought down energy and mining companies.

The Dow Jones closed largely unchanged, at 14865, whilst the S&P 500 shed five points (-0.3%), to close at 1589. For the week the Dow added 2.1%, whilst the S&P firmed 2.3%. Data also weighed on Friday night, with U.S. retail sales unexpectedly falling March.

The 0.4% decrease, the biggest since June, followed a 1% gain in February, according to Commerce Department figures in Washington. The median forecast of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an unchanged reading in March.

Separate data showed the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for April slipped to 72.3 from 78.6 in March. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had predicted no change for this month’s reading.

Gold tumbled to the lowest price since July 2011, slumping into a bear market, on signs that investors are favouring the US dollar and equities as the global economy recovers. Silver dropped the most since June. Bullion for June delivery plunged 4.1% to settle at $1,501.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York.

The metal is down 21% from a record settlement of $1,891.90 in August 2011, meeting the common definition of a bear market. Crude fell to a one-month low after U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence declined, signaling lower fuel demand.

Oil for May delivery declined $2.22 to $91.29 a barrel on the NYMEX, the lowest settlement since 6 March. Prices fell 1.5% last week and are down 0.6% this year.

Today’s session will bring us data in the form of home loans numbers, at 11:30am, AEST. There is also a host of Chinese data due out today, including GDP and retail sales, which could have a huge impact on the local action.

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International markets were mainly stronger overnight on improving market sentiment.

European stocks climbed for the most part, as mining shares rallied and Alcoa Inc. began the U.S. earnings season with profit that beat analysts’ estimates. London’s FTSE index added 36 points (+0.6%) to settle at 6313, whilst the German DAX shed 25 points (-0.3%) to settle at 7637.

Stateside, the Dow closed at a record high on a rally in cyclical shares and as earnings season started to heat up.

The Dow advanced 60 points (+0.4%), to 14,673 – a record closing high. The S&P 500 gained six points (+0.4%), to 1,568.61. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 16 points (+0.5%), to close at 3,238.

The return to near-record levels indicates that investors are again using market declines as buying opportunities. Stocks also got a boost from a promising start to the earnings season.

While only 5% of S&P 500 companies have reported results so far, almost three-quarters of them have topped expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data.

crude rose the most in two weeks as the dollar weakened against the euro and the U.S. boosted its 2013 price forecast.

oil for May delivery advanced 84 cents to settle at $94.20 a barrel on the NYMEX. It was the biggest rally since 26 March.

Gold rose to a one-week high and silver jumped the most since January on speculation that central bankers in major economies will take more steps to bolster their economies, boosting demand for the metals as stores of value.

The euro climbed to the highest level versus the yen since 2010 as the Bank of Japan’s effort to double the nation’s monetary base within two years fuelled demand for higher-yielding assets.

On the economic front, today the market will be in receipt of the latest Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey, at 10:30am, AEST.

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After weakness on Friday night, global markets collectively bounced back overnight. European stocks climbed, rebounding from the biggest three-day selloff since July, as German industrial production increased more than forecast and investors awaited the start of U.S. earnings season.

In London, the UK’s FTSE 100 added 27 points (+0.4%) to settle at 6277, whilst the German DAX put on four points to settle at 7662. U.S. stocks rose as investors speculated first-quarter earnings would help equities rebound from their biggest weekly decline of the year.

The Dow Jones added 48 points (+0.3%) to settle at 14614, whilst the S&P 500 added 10 points (+0.6%) to close at 1563.

Gold futures declined for the fourth time in five sessions as the dollar’s rebound reduced the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment. Bullion for June delivery slipped 0.2% to settle at $1,572.50 an ounce on the Comex in New York.

Crude rose amid clashes in Nigeria after talks between Iran and world powers ended without agreement. Oil for May delivery advanced 66 cents to settle at $93.36 a barrel on the NYMEX.

The yen weakened to the lowest level against the dollar since May 2009 on speculation Bank of Japan measures to fight deflation announced last week will further debase the currency.

Today’s session will bring us important data in the form of NAB business confidence, at 11:30 am, AEST. There is also Chinese CPI and PPI data out today which could have an impact on our market so traders should be mindful.

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Global markets endured another selloff on Friday night, largely fuelled by weaker than expected US employment numbers. In London the FTSE slumped 94 points (-1.5%) to settle at 6250, whilst the German DAX tumbled 159 points (-2%) to close at 7659.

The losses saw European stocks post their biggest weekly decline since November as reports signaled that the economic rebound in the U.S. has slowed, while the European Central Bank said risks remain to the euro area’s recovery.

U.S. stocks capped the biggest weekly decline of the year for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, after data showed the nation added less than half the number of jobs economists forecast in March.

Payrolls grew by 88,000 workers last month, the smallest in nine months, after a revised 268,000 gain in February that was higher than first estimated

The median forecast of 87 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected an advance of 190,000. The jobless rate fell to 7.6% from 7.7%.

Crude capped the biggest weekly drop in six months as U.S. employers hired less than half the number of workers forecast in March, raising concern that economic growth won’t be strong enough to support oil demand. Oil for May delivery dropped 56 cents (-0.6%) to $92.70 a barrel on the NYMEX, the lowest settlement since 21 March.

The yen dropped to the lowest since June 2009 after the Bank of Japan outstripped forecasts and announced unprecedented measures last week to fight deflation, spurring concern the currency will be debased.

Today’s session will bring us data in the form of the AIG construction index, at 10:30am, AEST, and ANZ job advertisements, at 12:30pm, AEST.

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The RBA held its latest monthly meeting today, deciding to keep rates on hold at 3%. The decision was widely expected by the market, with the market pricing in a 94% chance that the RBA would hold fire this month.

The RBA cited decreasing global risks, ‘robustly’ stabilisation in China and under-control inflation as among the reasons behind today’s decision and they are clearly in no rush to lower rates.

While today’s decision was pretty much a fait accompli and the RBA is reasonably happy with rates where they are, the market is still expecting the next move to be to the downside.

The RBA itself has said that it has room to cut rates further ‘if needed’. However the RBA also has faith that the cuts it has already made (cuts totalling 1.75% since late 2011) are more than enough to keep the local economy bubbling along.

But while there were some hopes we could see the RBA Target Cash Rate as low as 2% this year, the chances of a string of further cuts is looking increasingly unlikely.

While the Australian economy is not exactly shooting the lights out, there are at least some signs of strength visible. And that is enough for now to convince the RBA not to announce further cuts. Don’t forget, Australian interest rates are at their lowest since the 1950s and the RBA is going to have to see a stack of bad news before it slashes rates further.

The RBA looks at a raft of economic indicators to help it makes up its mind on appropriate interest rate levels; including such things as inflation rates, unemployment levels, retail spending data, terms of trade (Australia’s exports vs imports) and the Aussie dollar.

Let’s take a look at a few of these to see what they say about the economy and the chance of seeing future rate cuts. Firstly, let’s look at the unemployment rate. The chart below shows the unemployment rate tracked monthly over the last five years.

While unemployment is obviously much higher than where it was at the start of the GFC, the latest reading of 5.4% is still considered quite a positive result (and much better than most industrialised nations). Crucially, the last month saw unemployment tick lower with an impressive 71,500 jobs added during February – well ahead of the market’s expectations of 9,500 jobs.

Next, we will look at Retail Sales. The RBA pays a lot of attention to this as it does a great job of summarising households’ wealth, confidence and spending levels. It is a great indicator of whether consumers need stimulating or not.

The chart is quite choppy, and it can be quite hard to get a read on the direction of the trend. However, like the unemployment data the Retail Sales figures painted a particularly positive – if one-off – reading last month. Retail sales growth of 0.9% was the strongest reading since the middle of last year and came on the heels of months of seeing retail spending actually shrink across the country.

Now both of those charts show some recent positive readings amid generally middling trends. So why doesn’t the RBA just keep cutting rates? What do they have to fear? The answer is inflation. The RBA is worried that if they cut rates too far or too quickly, then inflation (prices of goods and services going up) will run out of control. And keeping inflation under control – ideally between 2% and 3% – is one of the RBA’s key goals.

The chart above shows inflation on a quarterly basis over the last 10 years. You can see that current levels are some of the lowest seen in the last decade and the last reading of 2.2% is well comfortably within the 3% limit that the RBA aims for. The RBA today acknowledged that inflation is consistent with its medium-term targets.

So where to from here?

The recent RBA rhetoric has clearly been painting a picture that the RBA is not going to cut rates further unless things go to hell in a hand basket. Short of a major global financial shock and/or a sudden and sharp deterioration in the local economy we don’t see any more cuts in the coming months.

The RBA thinks its previous cuts are doing the job intended and won’t cut further until they see proof otherwise.

Looking at the bond futures markets, we can see that the financial markets are currently pricing in rates to be at 2.77% by the end of 2013. So according to the market’s current thinking, at best expect to see one more rate cut by December. And the chances of rate cuts (according to the market) are falling every day. Late last year, the market was expecting rates to be down to 2.35% by the end of the year!

So you can see that with rates back to record lows, the days of hoping for a series of more rate cuts (at least by mortgage holders, not retirees/savers) are clearly over. The only thing that will see rates down to near 2% is some kind of economic meltdown. And that’s something that nobody is cheering for.

This editorial was published to our Investors report Tuesday 2nd April – Access the investors report FREE for 7 days

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News has emerged today that Cyprus, the EU and the IMF have agreed to measures that will deliver a bailout of the banking system in the troubled tiny Mediterranean tax haven.

Great, that’s over now, right? Phew! If only…

The banking crisis in Cyprus shook financial markets last week, triggering heavy selling around the globe. The crisis seemingly came out of nowhere. Well, at least it seemed that way to those that are uninformed.

To those that pay attention to the underlying data, it is no surprise to see the European debt crisis rear its ugly head again. As we have been telling investors in our reports and at our trading seminars – the market’s rebound in the last nine months is not proof that the problems in Europe have been solved – rather just that the problems have mostly moved to the back of investors’ minds.

Investor sentiment is certainly important, and was probably overly bearish last year – but just imagining that a problem doesn’t exist doesn’t mean it has gone away.

We are of the firm belief that it will be a long, arduous, hard slog in Europe to get the collective European economy back on track. And until it’s all done and dusted, investors should be prepared for more flare-ups.

Super Mario

The turning point in the European crisis was in late July last year when ECB President Super Mario uttered infamous line ‘…the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro….and believe me it will be enough’.

That one line, delivered to reporters as he was walking down the corridor from an ECB conference is the single biggest factor behind the Australian market’s 25% rise since mid-last year.

With that, investors were reassured that the problem in Europe has been solved.

The truth is that little has changed to the underlying debt problems in Europe – outside of a boost in confidence that that problem won’t descend into global financial system chaos.

Many European countries have taken (or been forced to take) the brave decision to undertake austerity programs. This essentially means governments are looking to cut spending and raise taxed in order to reduce budget deficits (what happens when governments spend more than they earn).

We believe this is a more appropriate strategy to deal with a debt crisis – as opposed to the American stimulus solution where the approach is to pay off too much debt with….more debt.

But taking a look at some economic indicators really illustrates how difficult it will be for European countries to first balance their books and then eventually make major headway into paying back its debt.

 
Let’s start with the indicator that garners the most attention; GDP growth – ie the rate at which an economy is growing (or shrinking).

The chart above shows the world’s estimate of how Europe’s economy will grow in 2013. A year ago, financial markets were expecting Europe to grow by 1% this year. Not an impressive number at all, but at least it’s something. Unfortunately expectations for economic performance in Europe are only deteriorating. Worryingly, most of the downward revision has come since Super Mario’s infamous speech.

Where do we sit now? Well, the market is now factoring in Europe to shrink by 0.2% this year. And we won’t make you think of the trajectory of the trend and where that suggests growth (shrinkage) expectations will be later in the year.

 
When an economy is shrinking, there’s less goods and services being produced or delivered. Less business requires less employees.

The chart above shows the unemployment rate across the Euro zone. We can see that in the last 12 months there has been a clear jump from 11% to 12%, with no real signs of a end to the rise. In some countries (Spain and Greece), the unemployment rate is over 25%. And for those lucky enough to remain employed, wages growth has been anaemic.

The significance of this is twofold. Firstly, the less people that have jobs, the less people pay tax. To compound matters, the more people unemployed, the more benefits need to be paid out by the government.

 
Which brings us to our last chart – budget deficits.

This shows the market’s expectations for how bad Europe will be at balancing its books in 2013. The chart is a budget deficit to GDP ratio for the Euro zone, ie compared to the size of the joint economy, how much extra debt will Europe need to take on to finance its tax/spending shortfall.

At least this chart shows stabilisation, rather than clear deterioration. But of course more debt is only going to make the problem of paying off too much debt that much harder.

Now, most governments will never clear out their national debts. Often it is less important how much a government owes as how risky the government is seen as being right now. That is because if a country (or region like the Euro zone) is seen as being low risk, it can borrow money cheaply and use that new money to pay back old debts. And then borrow more money to pack back the new debts ad infinitum.

Luckily these borrowing rates (what the finance world knows as bond yields), are coming down. But if the economic picture continues to worsen – and these charts above clearly show that the trends are only deteriorating – then be prepared for more bad news to emerge from our friends over in Europe.

This editorial was published on Monday the 24th March – Access the investors report FREE for 7 days

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Aussie shares had a difficult week last week, as a raft of disappointing earnings results drove the market lower.

The ASX 200 dropped 48 points (-1.1%), to close the week at 4197.

Four out of twelve sectors finished in positive territory; however the two largest sectors, materials and financials, were the hardest hit.

Three of the big four banks reported during the week.

CBA fell 0.4%, after it reported a 1Q FY12 cash profit of $3.58 billion, a 7% rise compared to the year earlier. The result was slightly ahead of analyst expectations.

ANZ put on 0.6%, following a 4.8% rise in quarterly cash profit to $1.48 billion. The result was also ahead of analyst expectations.

Rival Westpac dropped 3.4% after its 1Q FY12 cash profit was 1.5 billion, a 3.3% fall from the prior corresponding period.  That result missed analyst expectations.

The major miners were the biggest drag on the market last week as a majority of commodities fell sharply.

BHP and Rio Tinto lost 3% and 4.9% respectively. Iron ore rival Fortescue defied the trend, gaining 1% amid takeover rumours.

The energy sector was weaker during the week despite stronger oil prices. Woodside dropped 1.3% while rival Santos let go of 2.4% as it revealed its FY11 underlying net profit missed expectations.

The major retailers were mixed; David Jones (-1.6%) and JB Hi-fi (-6.3%) lost ground, while Myer (+2.5%) climbed higher.

Billabong soared 41.6% following an offer from TPG of $3.00 a share, a 68% premium to the close before the offer.

Supermarket giant Woolworths defied the weaker market by putting on 1.7%.

Economic News: What Does it Mean?

There was a plethora of economic data released last week. The key ones were consumer sentiment, business confidence, home loan approvals and Jobs data.

Consumer sentiment rose 4.2% in January, after a 2.4 % rise in December. The RBA’s two rate cuts late last year were acknowledged as having an impact on the positive number, although the index is still 5.2% below where it was a year ago.

Business confidence was higher in the month of January according to the NAB Business Confidence Survey.

According to the survey, the Business Confidence Index rose to +4 in the month, after a +3 reading in December. This is still below the long-run average of +6.

The business conditions index increased to +2, after a flat reading the previous month.

The ABS revealed that home loans approved in December rose 2.3% compared to market expectations of a 1.8% gain.

The increase in home loan approvals makes it six months in a row that there has been an increase, likely spurred by diminished prospects of an RBA rate hike.

Employment data revealed the jobless rate fell to 5.1% in January. Economists were expecting the rate to rise to 5.3%.

The total number of people employed jumped by 46,300 in December, which was way higher than economist expectations of a 10,500 net gain.

The result was driven by an increase in part-time employment of 34,000 people, and an increase in full-time employment of 12,300 people.

The result also decreases the likelihood of a rate cut in March by the RBA.

In the coming week the major news will be February’s RBA minutes meeting, which is slated for release on Tuesday 11:30 am, AEDT.

Overseas Market and Commodity Wrap:

International markets finished in positive territory, as hopes mount that eurozone finance ministers will allow Greece to receive the 130 billion euro bailout package it needs to avoid a default.

European stock rallied despite early week jitters that were sparked by Moody’s downgrading the credit rating of six European nations and placing the outlook of another three on negative watch

Among the key European indices, the UK FTSE (+0.9%), the German DAX (+2.3%) and the French CAC (+2%) all gained ground.

In the US, data showed that weekly jobless claims fell 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, its lowest level in almost four years.

The major US markets were all stronger, the Dow (+1.2%), Nasdaq (+1.7%) and S&P 500 (+1.4%) climbed higher on the week.

The larger Asian markets surged higher, with Nikkei (+4.9%) and Hang Seng (+3.4%) both extending the previous week’s rally.

Most commodities price dropped sharply; zinc (-6.4%) and nickel (-5.2%) were among the worst performers.

Gold advanced 0.5% while oil strengthened 3.8% on the back of Middle East supply concerns.

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