Currrency Trading Commentary: 15 May

The bias for the USDCHF is bullish.

We’ve switched to a four-hour chart today to better highlight the recent bull move.

The shorter-term EMAs are crossed higher and the price action is above the longer-term EMA filter, which is positive.

Whilst we are bullish, we would only be buyers on stop above last night’s high.

Traders can look to be buyers on stop, at 0.9380.

Currency Trading Commentary: 15 May is a post from: Australian Stock Report Forex Trading News

Currency Trading Commentary: 14 May

Friday night’s action saw risk currencies lose ground, as equities and commodities put in a mixed performance.

The Aussie dollar slipped lower, with the AUDUSD giving up 0.6% to settle at 1.0031 at this morning’s NY close, and the AUDJPY letting go of 0.6% to settle 80.17.

During today’s Asian session the Aussie dollar slipped below parity against the greenback for the first time in approximately six months, with the pair reaching down to 0.9996 before bouncing a touch to presently be trading back above the 1.0000 handle.

Back to Friday night’s action, the euro fell to its lowest level in more than three months as European officials begin to weigh the prospect of Greece withdrawing from the currency union.

The EURUSD let go of 0.2% to settle at 1.2923, whilst the EURJPY shed 0.2% to 103.28.

The British pound has become currency traders’ favourite refuge from the resurgent European debt crisis, threatening efforts by U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron to lift the economy out of its second recession in three years.

Whilst sterling was weaker against the euro and greenback on Friday night, the pound has climbed 3.4% this year, the most among 10 developed-market peers, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Canada’s dollar rose against all of its 16 most-traded peers except the yen and the US dollar after employment climbed, fuelling bets the central bank will be the first in the Group of Seven nations to raise interest rates.

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Currency Trading Commentary 14 May is a post from: Australian Stock Report Forex Trading News

Currency Trading Commentary: 11 May

As equity markets steadied overnight, so too did risk currencies and the euro.

The Aussie dollar posted gains, with the AUDUSD adding 0.3% to settle at 1.0090 at this morning’s NY close, whilst the AUDJPY added 0.7% to settle at 80.67.

The Canadian loonie traded at almost parity with its US counterpart before a government report tonight that economists predict will show that employment growth is slowing.

The euro rose from a three-month low as Europe’s bailout fund confirmed that aid to Greece had been received and officials reported progress forming a government, easing concern the nation will leave the monetary union.

The 17-nation currency ended eight sessions of losses against the greenback, matching the longest losing stretch on record, after a European Commission official said Greece’s financial “needs are covered.”

Elsewhere in the region, the British pound strengthened after the Bank of England halted its bond-purchase program amid the threat of inflation.

The pound has appreciated 4.8% in the past three months, the best performer of the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes.

The US dollar was mixed but rose against the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and, most notably, added 0.4% against the Japanese yen.

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Currency Trading Commentary: 11 May is a post from: Australian Stock Report Forex Trading News

Currency Trading Commentary: Euro Woe Continues

The bias for the EURUSD is bearish.

The shorter-term EMAs have crossed lower and are diverging, and the price action has extended away from the longer-term EMA filter, which is negative.

The price action is also on the verge of breaking down below a key horizontal level which, if breached, could induce further selling.

Traders can consider on stop sell orders at 1.2955, looking to catch the breakdown on the way through.

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Currency Trading Commentary: Euro Woe Continues is a post from: Australian Stock Report Forex Trading News

Currency Trading Commentary: 8 May

After the global retreat from risk in the previous session, international markets steadied overnight.

Equity markets held their ground, as did risk currencies.

The Aussie firmed slightly, with the AUDUSD adding 0.2% to settle at 1.0202 at Saturday morning’s NY close, whilst the AUDJPY gained 0.3% to settle at 81.53.

During today’s Asian session the Aussie fell against most of its 16 major counterparts after the nation reported a larger-than-estimated trade deficit amid concern spending cuts by the government will damp economic growth.

Elsewhere in the region, the Kiwi dollar declined in its longest losing streak in more than six years as Greek political leaders meet in a bid to form a new government, after an election raised questions about the European country’s membership of the euro bloc.

Back to last night’s action the euro continued its recent slide, dropping to a fresh, three-month low after Francois Hollande was elected president of France and as Greek voters flocked to anti-bailout parties, stoking concern austerity efforts in Europe may be derailed.

The 17-nation currency gave up 0.2% against the greenback, to 1.3057, and 0.5% against the British pound to 0.8063. Against the yen the euro advanced, adding 0.3% to 104.34.

The rest of the action was fairly subdued; the US dollar put in a mixed performance against most of its rivals, advancing slightly against the yen and Swiss franc but losing ground against the Canadian loonie.

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Currency Trading Commentary: 8 May is a post from: Australian Stock Report Forex Trading News

Currency Trading Commentary: Rolling Over

Since topping out at 84.00 in mid-March, the USDJPY has rolled over, presently trading towards 80.00.

The shorter-term EMAs have crossed lower and the price action is on the verge of slipping below the longer-term EMA filter.

The last completed daily candle is a bearish pin bar, which is often a precursor for lower prices as it highlights the inability of bulls to maintain higher prices.

Aggressive traders can consider selling a further breakdown, on stop at 79.60.

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Currency Trading Commentary: Rolling Over is a post from: Australian Stock Report Forex Trading News

Currency Trading Commentary: 2 May

The bias for the CHFJPY is becoming increasingly bearish.

After topping out around 92.50 in March, the pair has rolled over and is currently trading around 88.50.

The shorter-term EMA have crossed lower and the price action is on the verge of slipping below the longer-term EMA filter.

Whilst we are becoming increasingly bearish, we would need to see the price action take out the mid-April swing low of 87.00 in order to be sellers.

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Currency Trading Commentary: 2 May is a post from: Australian Stock Report Forex Trading News

Currency Trading Commentary: The Euro Fell

Amid stronger equity markets the Aussie dollar put in a mixed performance overnight, with the AUDUSD putting on 0.4% to settle at 1.0392 at this morning’s NY close, whilst the AUDJPY shed 0.1% to settle at 84.13.

The euro fell, extending a monthly loss against the US dollar and Japanese yen, after S&P cut Spain’s sovereign debt rating, heightening concerns the region’s financial woes are spreading.

S&P downgraded Spain’s long-term credit rating two levels, to BBB+ from A, saying the outlook is negative as the country’s recession undermines efforts to cut the budget deficit.

The British pound climbed for a ninth session versus the US dollar, the longest winning streak since January 2011, after a Nationwide Building Society index of sentiment rose to 53 in March from 44 the previous month.

Canada’s loonie dollar towards a seven-month high against the greenback on speculation the Bank of Canada raising borrowing costs in the world’s 10th- largest economy will add to the currency’s allure.

During today’s Asian session, the yen has been the big mover after he Bank of Japan, facing mounting government pressure, eased policy further on Friday by boosting its asset purchases by 10 trillion yen ($124 billion).

This was more than markets had expected and the bank also announced it would buy longer-term government bonds in a show of resolve to pull the economy out of deflation.

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Currency Trading Commentary: The Euro Fell is a post from: Australian Stock Report Forex Trading News

Currency Trading Commentary: Buy The Breakout

Since bottoming out around 1.9750 in mid-April, the GBPSGD has rallied sharply and is now challenging the late-March and 2012 high at 2.0160.

We are bullish on the pair, noting that the shorter-term EMAs are crossed higher and diverging and that the price action is above the longer-term EMA filter, which is positive.

The key here obviously is to only buy the pair if it can break out above the key 2.0160 resistance.

More confirmation is better than less here, as we don’t want to get caught buying a false breakout.

Traders can consider on stop buy orders at 2.0205 (noted by the green line on the chart above), a full 45 pips above the resistance level.

This should provide adequate confirmation.

If longs are considered, stop would be placed 80 pips (2 ATRs) below entry.

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Currency Trading Commentary: Buy The Breakout is a post from: Australian Stock Report Forex Trading News

Currency Trading Commentary: Sell The Breakdown

The bias for the AUDUSD remains bearish at this time.

We recently covered the pair and suggested traders set on stop sell orders at 1.0290, looking to catch the next rotation lower.

Since then this level has not been triggered but selling the breakdown remains our preferred play moving forward.

Traders can maintain on stop sell orders at 1.0290, with stops 150 pips above entry.

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Currency Trading Commentary: Sell The Breakdown is a post from: Australian Stock Report Forex Trading News